Engineer by day 🏗🚧, Sports addict by night 🏈🏀⚽️ Current Obsession: 2026 NFL Survivor @splashsports
Mission Viejo, CA
Joined March 2019
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Survivor Ownership Projections 🚨🏈🏆
Week 4 on @splashsports
Can we get just one mellow Sunday this year? This week feels like a great candidate for it!
🔹BAL is the Quality Chalk this week but some future value in Wk 5, 6, 14, and 16. My model is starting to downgrade the late weeks in the double pick contests due to the attrition we've seen, so the Ravens are grading well there.
🔹MIN is showing up as the best single pick contest option this week. Surely no concerns with Justin Jefferson being out against Miami right?! They are a dodge pile for me, but only on a slight technicality (like JAX in Wk 1) so they feel fine
🔹Every person in America is likely circling Buffalo in Week 11 (MIA) or Week 10 (NYJ). With the pace we are paring down the contests at right now, how large do you think their ownership can get then? Enticing play for me this week, I lean it's a pretty sharp way to go.
🔹I've got IND as my "No Duh!" play of the week. Think NYJ (wk 1), CAR (wk 2), and JAX (wk 3). They have some minimal value in the future, but I think they could really put it on WAS this week and make for a pretty sweat-free Sunday.
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People are really scared to call these boys the best in the league 👀
Jordan Love praised Matthew Golden's "resilience" despite multiple drops tonight.
"Would he like to have a couple plays back? For sure," says Love. "There was a time he came back to me and said, 'Just keep trusting me, just keep coming to me.'
"That's what you love to see—that confidence, that resiliency. That's what I tell these guys all the time; don't hang your head after a bad play, just expect the ball to keep coming your way."
I split up "Mistakes" into two different categories that I subjectively choose every week. First, the waste picks which are generally good teams facing each other who both have pretty obvious better spots later in the season. Second, the leverage picks aka the teams that played the top 5 or 6 chalkiest teams that week. I am a firm believer that this early in the season, you don't actually gain much by playing the leverage picks, its better to just not pick the favorites if you want to fade.
So single entry players are probably making a lot of mistakes right? NOPE!
Out of every single cohort in every contest, they are making the least mistakes. They come in below the field in mistake rate in every single one...
Ok JBB so how are we supposed to win at this survivor stuff?! You are probably gonna hate the next tweet...
So far, the winning strategy has been to throw a dart at any of the random "mid" teams every single week. These are the teams who aren't the chalk, and also not waste or leverage. They are mid or "meh" for a fkn reason though! These teams are pretty consistently 15% of win probability lower than the chalkiest teams of the week. Look how Week 5 turned out.
The chalk teams had a weighted combined win probability of roughly 75% depending on the contest. Thanks to DAL, WAS, and ATL all losing these entries only advanced at a 45% clip this weekend. Now compare that to the mid teams where ALL 6 favorites won. Simply throw a dart at DET, NE, DEN, PIT, MIN, or NYJ and you were safely onto Week 6.
Over the course of the season the chalk is running about 12%ish under expectation while the mid tier who usually has about 15% less win probability is outperforming them by almost 4X in some contests.
Just spray and pray baby, just spray and pray.
See you all in the Week 6 Revival lobbies amirite?!
If you enjoy this kinda content, I write about it every week! Give me a follow on substack.
Here is a link to the full Sharp Report article for this week: jonjackson.substack.com/p/do…
Here's where the tilting begins, buckle up...
Single entry players are making the best decisions this year. Plain and simple.
Every contest they are +EV with their decisions before the games kick off (based on win probability & actual ownership). Obviously the larger books go into each weekend with lower EV due to portfolio diversity right? Yes, but not really. First of all, these numbers properly weight within the portfolios, and even moreso you can see the max books are doing a much better job of decision making compared to the large books.
Good decisions are not really gaining anybody much of anything so far this season. Look how badly they are getting. The chart you just looked at shows single entries and small books set up the best entering the weekend. This chart below shows them getting absolutely demolished by the final whistle of Monday Night Football.
Based on the combined win probability of the teams that each cohort selected, single entries alone are running about 30% under expectation this year.
Seems pretty bad right? It gets worse...
Has the market told us anything so far?
YES...and it's telling us that people are getting crushed
Money's side of every game = losing
Money's side with high volume = losing more
Money's side with late volume = losing most
Money on the favorites = losing
Line move towards the favorite = losing more
Late one-way action on the favorite = losing most
Money on the underdogs = small loser
Line move towards the underdog = small loser
Late one-way action on the dog = WINNER (but only 5 game sample...)
Let's see how people are holding up in the contests...
Massacre teams (of which there have been many), are the main culprit.
In Week 5, more than 50% of single entries lost with DAL compared to only mid 30% of the max book entries. This is to be expected that the larger books could weather the storm better (if I had 150 entries I'd win too!)
Well duh, just fade the chalk. Make better decisions!
Out of all 4 of the main contests on @splashsports, who is still alive?
Less than 20% of the field remains in every single one.
Single entries are almost completely wiped out.
Almost 20% of max books (100+ entries) have been fully eliminated in the smaller contests.
Mid books (6-20) in the World Championship are about as pure as it gets and even then, 40% of people are wiped.
Who's to be blamed for this?
If you want to stay content with your mental head space after these first 5 weeks of NFL Survivor, DO NOT READ THIS THREAD!
If you are a sicko like me, click below ⬇️⬇️
If you are still holding the 49ers or Chiefs on @splashsports you've got pocket aces
🔹NYG spenders have to be feeling good
🔹LAR onslaught is upon us in Week 6
🔹How long will people keep holding BUF?
🔹My how far LAC has fallen
What are the markets telling us about this week's NFL Survivor favorites? The chart below compares line movement in this week's game to the season-long implied win total movement.
Thesis: a team who's priced has moved up this week and win total has moved down is a clear SPEND NOW and so on and so forth.
Results to date are mostly meh, and really just show favorites underperforming in all 4 quadrants. If anything, the "Rising" category surprises me since it is actually underperforming the most.
JBBs Primetime Tails 🏈💸
Ravens @ Falcons - Week 5 SNF
If the Falcons can get out to a healthy lead tonight, I think it will be thanks to Robinson & Robinson
Kevin Stefanski runs more the bigger his lead gets: 45% runs when tied or up one score, 62% when up 14+. In Penix's two starts Atlanta put up 35 and 45 and ran it about 60% of the time. Against a backup QB tonight in Huntley, I think we can expect a lot of this again.
Brian Robinson isn't just the garbage-time back in this offense. He's had 9, 11, 10 and 14 carries, good for a third of the backfield's work, and he's gone for 31, 51, 50 and 62 yards. He does his work between the tackles, which is where Baltimore has been softest: 27th in success rate on runs at the guards and 23rd in yards per carry off tackle. I like all forms of Brian bets tonight.
Bijan is the home-run swing. In Penix's two starts he ran for 194 and 145 with long runs of 55 and 59. His damage comes on the edge (12.5 yards per carry on outside runs this year), and Baltimore is without top edge rusher Trey Hendrickson tonight.
The Tails 🏈💸
Brian 10+ rush atts @ 40c, 1u
Brian 40+ rush yds @ 43c, 0.5u
Bijan o17.5 long rush @ 51c, 0.5u
Bijan 110+ rush yds @ 32c, 0.25u
Bijan 120+ rush yds @ 24c, 0.25u
Thank you Cowboys!
$21mil is cool and all but have you ever tried to win a smaller contest on @splashsports?!
Plenty of season left
Survivor Ownership Projections 🚨🏈🏆
Week 5 @splashsports
Think Dallas is a totally fine play tonight
Will have more thoughts tomorrow when I’m not in airports and planes!
Good luck all
Jon Jackson retweeted
JBBs Primetime Tails 🏈💸
Buccaneers @ Cowboys - Week 5 TNF
Jalon Daniels only passed for 148 yds in his career debut last week against the Packers. Now he faces the Cowboys who are a completely different animal.
Green Bay plays two deep safeties and blitzes 39% of the time which makes teams throw at or behind the line on a third of their passes, the most in the league. That's why last week looked like screens and checkdowns for Daniels (aDOT 5.3yds).
Dallas is very different: single-high safety on 56% of snaps, a 26% blitz rate, and the deepest average throw allowed in the league (10.2 yards). They do hold up well on the outside, where passes of 10+ yards are completed only 40% of the time (league avg 46%).
Inside is where they breakdown pretty consistently. Here’s how opponents are doing against them this season:
• Over the middle, 10+ yards: 7 for 7, 20 yards per throw (league avg 60% comp, 12.8 yds). Worst in the NFL.
• Short throws (1–9 yards): 86% completion and giving up 4.7 yards after the catch (league avg 71% comp, 3.7 YAC)
That's Cade Otton’s music people! He beats expected yards after the catch on short throws (4.4 per catch vs 4.05 for TEs), and when he catches one 10+ downfield he adds 6.9 more (TE average 4.7). He was also Daniels' most frequent first read last week (29%).
His tails trends since he took over his current role in 2024:
• 40+: 42% of games (priced at 33%)
• 50+: 33% (priced at 22%)
• 60+: 24% (priced at 13%)
The Tails 🏈💸
Otton o39.5 rec yds @ 34c, 1u
Otton o49.5 rec yds @ 22c, 0.5u
Otton o59.5 rec yds @ 14c, 0.25u
Otton o69.5 rec yds @ 9c, 0.1u
Season Record: 20-17, +6.78u, +42.8% ROI