DMs are open for Opportunities | prev @tenzorcapital @interstatefdn @YTWO_VENTURES | CUHK alum | Dota 2 Enjoyeer| NFA, DYOR
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Thanks a lot for your time reading and responding back!
I agree on the pieces that you have raised here. Not knowing about the Yolo mode, not taking into the account the bigger packs, missing out with Dust wallet. I should have reached out to your team bofore publishing it and I acknowledge my actions.
On the points raised on wash trading, I would like to be clear. I am not stating that the team has faked its revenue, but rather I cannot prove who owns those wallets. I wrote it on my own with a good faith, with no payment or external influence or being positioned in Cards.
I would be glad to genuinely change my mind where I am wrong. If there is more parts that you think is not alligned to what your internal dashboards are seeing and my point is misleading feel free to point out or direct me towards to. I will restate it in public. I am glad that not only me are on similar points, but just with a slight different numbers. Shout out to @FourPillarsFP.
Have read their post and the proposal for the call on the next week. I would be glad to join it too.
We all agree that TCG market being new and real, which matters to holders. The question that I genuinely care more about is how much in the intersection of real collectioners and OGs in cards are flowing into our crypto railed products. How much of the reported revenue is fresh demand vs the same capital recycling. And I think this is a fair thing to debate in the open. Happy to be corrected and share my view on second piece with your team.
I would like to publically apologise for wasting your time for reading AI sloppy article. 🙇♂️🙇♂️🙇♂️
Was first time writing something in twitter that actually went viral because people cared like I do.
I was desperately looking for new opportunity for the last 1 month and at the same time developing onchain investigation skill for claude (pump token predictor based on 20 onchain metrics of manipulation) before seeing so many people around me in VC / Liquid Fund space talking about Collector's Crypt that I wanted to understand the onchain behavior of end users.
On this one I agree on all three points!
> Did not check the frontend for Yolo mode and their $2500 pricing tag (I tried to filter based on the small ones) thinking first order hypothesis being airdrop farmers who could be inflating the true volume.
> Still I have double checked and found 900 wallets (at least to the honest extent that my claude with Dune MCP is telling me) inter trading between each other. Took me a while to label proper counterparties and see if some bots are steady buyers only or people are really burning 800k of trading volume just to hold cards with negative EV. So thinking that they just trade between each other and their cards get shuffled makes me still curious.
I did not finish the website so that you guys could actually go and see everything in breadcrumbs way, but hereby attaching the screenshot of my points.
FYI:
Bot Metronome from picture:
solscan.io/account/FfvHr4oAG…
bot Intermittent 2nd pic:
solscan.io/account/3hcxpfGNW…
its transaction:
solscan.io/tx/2YrFJ5JKpfUGqo…
Bot Steady 2nd pic:
solscan.io/account/Dr4XWr5rB…
its transaction:
solscan.io/tx/yv5eutVfe2mQ68…
If anyone from Dune or Data Indexers with MCP want to grant me with free credits DMs are open. My subscription could not cover all the historical data of each of those wallets.
saw quite abit of sharing on this so wanted to clarify some items in this article and the data points for this.
1) One wallet bought 100 times in 81 minutes.
90% of the gaps between its buys are under ten seconds. 36% of them land in the same second.
> if you use @Collector_Crypt , i believe there is this option called turbo mode which you could spin multiple times in 1 go. each is logged as 1 transaction id, hence i believe it is possible to land plenty in the same second
2) Two thirds of every pack dollar comes in one identical $250 clip. Not a spread of sizes the way a room full of people would bet. The same ticket, over and over.
> i could be misunderstanding this, but i believe $1000 + $2500 (even higher value packs) are the main driver for gacha revenue at the moment
3) It seeded wallets in every category, from the metronome bots to the casual tail.
.And it shares its last four characters, xJq3, with the Gacha venue itself.GachaNgy...xJq3
Vanity suffixes are not free. You grind through addresses until one ends in the letters you want.
Somebody chose to make the wallet that pays the gas look like the venue it feeds.
One hand. $7.69. It started the engines, and it signed its work.
> i believe this is dusting attack which is pretty common across all chains. If you notice the address, it is Ga.... xJq3 which is what dusting does as the addressed was vanity grinded to be similar to the gacha machine. Micro amounts of USDC are sent to all these address which makes no sense to me tbf except for dusting.
Will just throw in an example of a wallet (7gqcHoR77jkxYrYh1PUnModVC84f8kJePvZskCNRuXZD - sorry ser i have no idea who is this) which interacted with this address to illustrate my point. Funding and seeding is definitely not by this wallet, and $0.0051 USDC (which is worthless) is transferred to the wallet which interacted with the gacha machine.
@Collector_Crypt reports $62M in revenue.
The wallets that made it deposited $58M to play.
Same number. 1.07x.
I spent two weeks rebuilding it from the chain, wallet by wallet. Here is what I found. 🧵
What the chain proves: the volume is automated, the wallets are self-funded, and the revenue is the size of the deposits.
What it cannot prove: who owns the wallets. The team, paid farmers, or bots. Exchange-internal flows are invisible.
So I name no one.
I rebuilt all of it from public data. Every wallet is a clickable address. Every number reproduces from Dune and DefiLlama.
The full teardown, with the receipts:
xitter.cf/johna2an/status/207110…
Pandora Research. @johna2an
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Introducing the Monastery for AI-native founders.
A single builder can now outperform a publicly traded company.
$2 million. 12 weeks. Do the impossible.
Still makes me think we are so early…
Babylon has the leader’s balance sheet and the laggard’s token.
$3.8B TVL.
Roughly 52k BTC.
Clear leader in BTC staking.
Yet BABY still trades like the market does not believe holders will ever capture that position.
Babylon has the leader’s balance sheet and the laggard’s token.
$3.8B TVL.
Roughly 52k BTC.
Clear leader in BTC staking.
Yet BABY still trades like the market does not believe holders will ever capture that position.
I wrote the full piece here: The Only Turnstile
Full chart pack, cohort comps, unlocks, staking behavior, and the fee-routing question behind BABY’s discount.
pandoraresearch.substack.com…
Subscribe if you want more chart-heavy work like this.