Joe Leider

True FCF yield is great. But BBWI, CMCSA, THC — stocks I love - are carrying a lot of debt. Debt holders get paid before I do. So I built a debt haircut into my screener. Some stocks held up. Some didn’t. cavemanscreener.substack.com… #valueinvesting #aibubble

New piece: AI is a vast reflective surface amplifying your own thoughts back at you. Synthetic data is a bootstrap confidence interval. And the companies with real, hard-to-replicate data are the ones that matter. cavemanscreener.substack.com…

If NVDA chips are so much in demand, backlog so long, business so profitable - Why is NVDA investing in AI startups and compute leasing rather than just making more chips? It seems like overkill. cavemanscreener.substack.com… #AI #valueinvesting

Four investing regimes since 2012: - 2012-2024: VOO and chill -Early 2025: Trump trade -Oct 2025-now: Rotation trade -Next: European hard assets Full piece: cavemanscreener.substack.com… #valueinvesting #macro #warsh #bessent

DECK vs NKE through the Peter Lynch lens: DECK: 8.43% true FCF yield, 16.5% 3-yr revenue CAGR, Y220 of 6.3 years, shares shrinking 2% per quarter. NKE: 2.42% true FCF yield, minus 0.29% revenue growth. cavemanscreener.substack.com… #valueinvesting #peterlynch

New metric I built: Y220. Years to 20% true FCF yield, assuming current 3-year revenue CAGR holds. Why 20%? That's where CMCSA sits right now. My Godfather number. Full piece: cavemanscreener.substack.com… #freecashflow #valueinvesting

Roper's (ROP) two sided marketplace, Nike's (NKE) Jordan moment and the cut-throat world of online charter schools (LRN) cavemanscreener.substack.com…

2026 earnings yield: 3.48% 10-year treasury: 4.59% Gap: -1.11% Now subtract the 1.4% that opened between earnings yield and True FCF yield in 2026. Real equity risk premium: -2.51% That level shows up in the data in 1987, 1992, 2000, and 2008. New piece: cavemanscreener.substack.com…

Microsoft fiscal 2024 true FCF fell 8.5% while revenue grew 18%. Infrastructure spend is outrunning the cash coming in while there's not enough consumer AI monetization to catch up. Full piece: cavemanscreener.substack.com… #valueinvesting #ai

Three scenarios for monetary policy: 15%: Warsh fights commodity inflation while NGDP collapses. 60%: There's a lot of ruin in a nation. AI trade corrects. Value rotates up. 25%: Warsh does Trump's bidding. cavemanscreener.substack.com… #Macro #ValueInvesting #Fed #Warsh

I left VOO last April over the inelastic market hypothesis. It's cost me. Being wrong and being early look identical for a while. So I finally priced the thing I'd been avoiding. cavemanscreener.substack.com… #AI #SaaS #valueinvesting

Florida homeowners insurance sounds like the worst investment right now. 12%-18% true FCF yield. $4.06 billion in reinsurance coverage. CEO buying shares every two weeks through a real price decline. cavemanscreener.substack.com… #ValueInvesting #Insurance #HCI #FreeCashFlow

Adobe is down 40% from its highs. True FCF yield: 9.3% Topline growth: 10% Deferred revenue: accelerating Enterprise contracts: extending 30% longer on average The theory says AI is killing SaaS. cavemanscreener.substack.com… #ValueInvesting #ADBE #SaaS #FreeCashFlow

Snowflake and Databricks are NOT the AI picks-and-shovels play. FactSet, Veeva, Roper, and SPGI are. Raw data infrastructure gets cheaper every year. Decades of validated, regulated, irreplaceable data does not. cavemanscreener.substack.com… #AI #ValueInvesting #DataScience #SaaS #FDS

Last week I ran a bear case DCF on Comcast. Bear case: $30-38 per share. Dream scenario: NBCUniversal spinoff producing $55-75 on sum of parts. This morning Comcast announced the spinoff. Full DCF with the math: cavemanscreener.substack.com… #CMCSA #ValueInvesting #FreeCashFlow

I identified BAH's $6.4B Pentagon AI contract from procurement data. BAH announced a $720M acquisition this morning of the exact hardware needed to fulfill it. Full analysis: cavemanscreener.substack.com… #ValueInvesting #DefenseTech #BAH #PLTR

New piece: the case for corporate cannibals — companies with growing true FCF and shrinking share counts. Also: why does everyone question Adobe's freemium model but nobody questions Anthropic's? cavemanscreener.substack.com… #ValueInvesting #FreeCashFlow #Buybacks #ADBE

Screened for stocks with 10%+ True FCF yield across their entire history. Found some garbage. Found some interesting ones. HOG is retiring nearly 10% of its float per year while the brand supposedly melts. CMCSA revenue tracks US GDP at 96%. cavemanscreener.substack.com…

US interest payments now equal defense spending. Past empires fell at this point. Spain. Britain. I screened dividend aristocrats for revenue correlation to CPI. Full screen at cavemanscreener.substack.com #ValueInvesting #Inflation #Dividends #FreeCashFlow

May 4th: I published data showing Mag 7 true FCF declining while net income soared. May 13th: The Economist ran it as their lead business story. I have SEC filings and a Substack. They have Goldman Sachs. Same conclusion. cavemanscreener.substack.com… #ValueInvesting #AI #FreeCashFlow