Hamp retweeted
Top of the Democratic agenda on day 1 needs to be a pause on advanced AI development, regulation of this out of control industry, and a ban on artificial superintelligence.
Hamp retweeted
Hope we can all agree the 200-DMA is a key sentiment level. Today, $QQQ didn’t just slip below it. It plunged 5% in a single day.
Last time in 2020, QQQ gained 61% in 1 year. In 2000, it lost 43%. In 1998, it gained 110%. Either way, 2027 could be wild. Let's just hope like 98.
Hamp retweeted
The S&P 500 fell 4.35% today, a move seen on 42 prior days since 1970, mostly during crises. Their median 12M return was +24.7%, versus +11.3% for a typical SPX day 12M return. A large historical gap, though the signals overlap and the result does not survive adjustment across 10 horizons.
Hamp retweeted
VIX spiked >69% intraday vs. yesterday’s close, only the 6th time since 2004. The last three: Dec ’24’s Fed selloff, Aug ’24’s yen carry unwind, and 2018’s Volmageddon.
Hamp retweeted
There is a chance that QQQ could finish today with a -2.25sd move (or worse) based on QQQ and VXN 30 days ago.
Here's a list of every time QQQ has done that after at least 200 days without such an event.
Let me know how much you lose on the calls you're about to purchase on the ASK.
Citadel sees year-end stock rally as Wall Street’s biggest buyers return investing.com/news/stock-mar…
Hamp retweeted
For the first time since 2006, Democrats won both the House and Senate in a midterm. Markets had already priced it in as evident by recent derisking.
Fearmongering aside, the S&P 500 $SPX was higher 3 months out in all cases with no 20%+ bear market in the next 6 months.
ALT Historical S&P 500 performance following midterm elections when Democrats gained control of both the House and Senate. The chart shows 12-month price paths since 1950, alongside forward returns and drawdown statistics. In all 11 prior cases, the S&P 500 gained over the following three months, with a median return of 13.3%.
Hamp retweeted
The worst possible combination is a Republican President and a Democratic Congress. Futures seem to agree so far.
Hamp retweeted
THE BULK OF NOVEMBER's 15-4, 2.75% MIDELECTION YEAR GAINS HAVE OCCURRED OCT31-NOV10
As I noted in my Oct30 post, which resides in my profile, the S&P is 19-0 since 1950 in the six-month period beginning in November of Mid Election Years for an avg 14.8% gain.
In that study, you can see November participating at a 15-4 clip for a 2.75% avg monthly gain.
Looking in more detail inside the month of November, the vast majority of those gains came in the front half of those months with Oct31-Nov10 going 18-1 for a 2.15% gain and the remainder of the month mixed.
Naturally, in searching for causality for the front end month bullish bias, one can't help but speculate the mid-term elections are possibly an early November contributing factor occurring anywhere from Nov2-8.
As of Nov 3rd, the S&P is down 0.14% for the month and there is, of course, no guarantee that this year will not be different as there are, as you may have heard, other variables beside seasonals influencing the direction of equity indexes.
Hamp retweeted
October and November have never both been lower in a midterm year.
The five times October was lower, November bounced back in the green each time.
December was lower only once, but it was the huge 9.2% drop the last time President Trump was in office.
Hamp retweeted
Wow! Today, Nasdaq 100 reversed lower under -1% after opening positive and gaining over 1% intraday. Sounds bearish. But guess what?
$QQQ was higher 5 days out in 7 of 7 cases. What if this is a bear trap, followed by a bull trap next week, that liquidates both sides?
ALT QQQ price chart showing eight signals since 2023 when the Nasdaq 100 ETF opened higher, gained over 1% intraday, but closed down at least 1%. Red arrows highlight historical occurrences. In all seven completed prior cases, QQQ was higher five trading days later, with an average gain of 5.1% and a median gain of 4.8%. November 2, 2026, is marked as the latest signal, with forward returns pending.
Oil slips more than 1% as talks continue on ending Iran war reuters.com/business/energy/…
Hamp retweeted
A 15-3 FIRST DAY/WEEK/MONTH OF NOVEMBER SETUP - Compliments of a Negative Last Week of October
I see the last week of October as down 0.57%.
Since 1975, I have the S&P 33-19 in the last week of October.
After those 18 prior negative last weeks of October, the first day, first week and month of the following November were all each 15-3 with the 2% moves for the month 12-0 in the positive direction.
For reference, Novembers don't normally need a lot of help, 38-13 since 1975 for an avg gain of 2.08% with the 5% moves 11-3.
The ratings in the bottom row of the table are based on the avg with outliers underweighted, then normalized to range from -100 to +100 in -3 to +3 standard deviation fashion.
I was tipped to this study by my Correlation Model which provides guidance as to what trailing time frames in the past have exhibited strong correlation to the selected time frame of interest.
One of 18 studies on a variety of markets shared with Study Subscribers this week. waynewhaley.witterlester@gmail.com for subscription inquiries.
Hamp retweeted
Listen, I can explain the spreadsheet I just ran, but you don't give a shit and frankly, would speed read it and get lost anyway. What I'm trying to say is that you are a barely literate ignoramus, for whom I have not one ounce of respect.
That being said, here's what I wanted you to try to get through your thick, dense skull: when negative calendar months on SPX in the past were as tame as the negative months we've had in 2026...[November+December] has almost always been positive (combined; not both months individually).
Go get daddy a beer.
