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Howard Stern breaking the news of an airplane hitting the twin towers on 9/11, back when he was a normal person not a woke liberal snowflake.
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A little project I forgot to mention --> I've been burning off MJO forecasts from EPS if you need them at celsius.earth/mjo
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Excited to share WeatherNext 3 from @GoogleDeepMind and @GoogleResearch!
High-res temperature and precipitation forecasting using the latest satellite observations 🛰️
It's also the best global weather model according to Brightband's live leaderboard!
owb.brightband.com/
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I’m just trying to imagine what they must have been feeling in that moment… trapped with no way out. I can’t even imagine the fear, helplessness, and desperation a person would feel when there seems to be no escape.
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Could A Margin Call Force A Phoenix Suns Sale?
Mat Ishbia borrowed money from JPMorgan to complete the $4 billion purchase. He had to put up $4.6 billion in his company's stock as collateral, but the stock is now down 70% since the deal closed.
READ: huddleup.substack.com/p/coul…
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weatherbell.com/winter-2026-… I will be doing the Saturday Summary on the outlook for the upcoming winter. We will issue our final forecast in October. I suspect it will be a bit snowier and colder in the east, as the winter of 09-10 can not be ignored as a contributor, and the analogs I am using are even-weighted now, but need to be weighted from strongest to weakest for the final forecast. I have taken the bull by the horns with snowfall forecasts for selected cities across the nation. If anything, it's a test for me, and I like testing myself
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You asked for it. Here it is. My list of Lake markets which I think will see the highest foreclosure rates over the next 2-3 years:
1) Deep Creek Lake, MD
2) Lake of the Ozarks, MO
3) Lake Travis, TX
4) Big Bear Lake, CA
5) Lake Lanier, GA
6) Lake Anna, VA
7) Smith Mountain Lake, VA
8) Lake Havasu, AZ
9) Lake Chelan, WA
10) Lake Murray, SC
11) Lake Gaston, NC/VA
12) Table Lake Rock, MO
13) Lake Keowee, SC
14) Flathead Lake, MT
15) Lake Cumberland, KY
As I dove into every lake market you can imagine, the above had a noticeable spike in properties being bought and turned into Airbnb's. Those who bought pre-2020 or those who bought post 2020 but managed to catch a low FIXED interest rate on their debt "should" be fine in the above markets, as long as they didn't lever up and go crazy. But, those who got a dose of FOMO and purchased from late 2021 to 2025 and thought they'd ride that AirBnb train into financial freedom are about to feel some pain.
This write up will be at
Bowtiedbroke.Substack.Com and will be free for all to read as I think this foreclosure topic in certain markets is an important one. There was a little delay in publishing it, but I wanted to make sure I had a lot of data to support my thesis.
I've assigned a risk score to each location with this write up so you can see just how strong the data is which supports a potentially big hit to the particular housing around these lakes, mainly from Airbnb speculators not being able to make their monthly mortgage payments. If the STR owners start to bail, that will more than likely cascade to other properties and could pull down prices quite a bit.
Still adding a few more details to the newsletter and tweaking my risk scores a little, but the full write up for this should be dropped tonight or early tomorrow. Keep an eye on your inboxes, this one will hit shortly.
Here is my personal list of vacation markets that I think are going to see the highest Foreclosure rates over next 2-3 years:
1) Broken Bow, OK
2) Blue Ridge, GA
3) Elijay, GA
4) Maggie Valley, NC
5) Helen, GA
6) Beech Mtn, NC
7) Mineral Bluff/Cherry Log, GA
8) Eureka Springs, AR
9) McCall, ID
10) Sisters, OR
11) Sandpoint, ID
12) Payson/White Mtns, AZ
13) Whitefish, MT
14) Lake of Ozarks, MO
15) Leavenworth, WA
Many of these were "Second home/family vacation cabin" markets before Covid. Then the lockdown caused a flood of AirBnB speculators in many small towns. That caused prices to skyrocket and a lot of FOMO buyers to jump on the "AirBnB is passive income" train from 2022 - 2025. I am already seeing quite a few foreclosures go all the way to fruition in some of the above towns (the process usually takes 1 - 2 years from the date of the last mortgage payment by the owner). I go into details of each of these towns in my Newsletter I'm releasing today.
In the next hour, I'll be dropping it at Bowtiedbroke.substack.com where I break down a specific foreclosure in one of the above towns so you know how to spot them and how they progress along the path of:
1) Last Made Mortgage Payment
2) Short Sale Attempt
3) Foreclosure paperwork
4) Actual Default Foreclosure
5) Bank Asset Manager
6) Sale of Property by bank
Today's write up will be wide open to everyone (because I feel this a very important topic to know/learn about in the next few years). If you've ever wondered what the Foreclosure process looks like and want to know more about what happened in the above towns, you will want to read it.
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