Isso explica o lance do passaporte…

Flávio Bolsonaro chega com mulher e filhas aos EUA após fuga do Brasil; assista #CNN360°

I Left Brazil, A Stone Cold Analysis A lot of people are leaving Brazil after the election results. Lula already promised to censor social media harder in his first speech, the market collapsed 20%, and there is widespread desperation among the right-wing half of the population. There's a lot of speculation about Brazil's reasons for voting Lula, what did Bolsonaro do wrong, etc.... etc... etc.... Most of it is just bonkers. So let me be brutal. The two most important factors determining the destiny of any people are 1) Their intelligence distribution 2) Their Biogeography In this order. It's not just the average IQ, you need a minimum of people above 110 to run a good society, and a minimum above 130 to run a great society. Society is much worse if you have some 79 than if you have too many 88s. You can work with 88s, you can't work with 79s. The military won't conscript that low because people are more problem than solution and can't generate more value than they cost by existing. Brazil has a lot smart people, few very smart people (hi how are you?), and a monumental amount of retards and idiots. To make it worse, the retards and idiots reproduce more than the smart people, and we the very smart people move out of the country because our economy has no role for actually brilliant people. Brazil's IQ peaked long ago and has been steadily declining for decades. The election can be seen as a competition for the 81 to 85IQ vote. Outside the big cities, most people above vote Bolsonaro, most people below vote Lula. The battle is in that range. This time, Bolsonaro won the house and senate, Lula won the presidency for 4th time. Largely speaking Brazilians are retarded and envious. The blacks and indigenous whose IQ is below 80 envy everything about the whites and mixed who have more resources like cellphones and so on. The whites envy other whites who are either prettier, or smarter, or richer, or both. In school, and I'm at the elite of the elite of Brazil, top 0.2% school, people envied me for being smart, and tried to push me down, they envied others for being beautiful. Brazilians lack agency. Brazil is only a free separated country because the son revolted against the father, we didn't have a liberation war. Brazil only freed the slaves because everyone else did and England forced our hand. Brazilians are envious, retarded, and non agentic. Brazilians are moved by outside forces, not compelled by internal drive. Brazilians inherited the 3 worse traits of the three cultural groups of which it is made. 1) From Latin whites (Portuguese, Italian, Spaniards) it inherited nobility culture, crony capitalism and extraction culture. 2) From African people, magical thinking, imediatism, envy. 3) From Indigenous people, insolence, total resistence to work, and lazyness. That's the people. Roberto Campos is the anthropologist who studied us and said it. I'm just the messenger. Then there's the biogeography. Brazil is enormous, the rivers are turned the wrong way, hard to navigate and shit, the people are living by the beach and not integrated economically with the rest of south america or the rest of Brazil itself. Brazil is far away from the economy of earth, so everything is expensive due to transport. In short, Brazil got the short stick of Intelligence, and the short Stick of biogeography. There is literally nothing anyone can do to stop the fall of Brazil. If ASI doesn't save Brazil, it will continue to decline forever. The best people leave (hi how are you?), the worse people stay, the worst people reproduce. There's 40 million Angolans in Brazil, just passed Portugal as the biggest genetic group. Look at Angola and you'll see it is not a peak industrial and service giant with highly advanced tech. It is a communist shithole of hell. That is where Brazil will necessarily go for biological reasons, since intelligence is biological, and biogeographical reasons, because we are far from everyone. I knew all this in 2014, and I left. I abandoned the sinking ship and I thank myself every day in the mirror for being smart enough to do it. Thank you, past Diego, you truly are the best ever. You are the man. Thank you. A lot of people now in 2026 are choosing to leave. They must, they should. There is no salvation inside Brazil, because nobody, no matter how well-intended and strong-willed, can defeat the curse of bad biogeography and low intelligence. It has never been done and it never will. People are trying to find an explanation for the election and why Lula won. That's wrong. Flavio was supposed to win, but Lula is one in a century charismatic, propped up by the growth of China in his first 2 mandates and became a legend in the minds of Brazilians. So in the battle for those between 81 and 85 IQ, Lula loomed large in their imaginarium, and he won. There is nothing that needs explanation. Lula is over, if it was anyone else Flavio would have won. The right did everything right, and it was not enough. Finding reasons now is genuinely wrong, because victory was not possible. Maybe 4 years from now in Lula's absence the country will be more right wing. But it will also be 1 IQ point lower. Because us the 130+s will have moved out, and because the retards and imbeciles will have reproduced more than the midwits. There is no escaping this. This is destiny. So to everyone considering leaving Brazil. Obviously, get the fuck out of there immediately. Go to any country with a better IQ distribution and a better biogeography, with less envy, less magical thinking, and less insolence. Everything will improve. You will miss your family, but everything else will improve. I left Brazil and it was one of the best decisions I have ever made. It is your chance to do the same. End the magical thinking. Even if your political side had won, it would never in a million year defeat the curse of a bad IQ distribution and a bad biogeography on top of it. Brazil will never rise, unless AI changes the game completely. And when it does, we can all go back and enjoy it! :) Leave. Don't hesitate, just leave.

Marie Antoinette, Queen of France (1774 to 1792), was said to have declared, “Let them eat cake.” More than two centuries later, that sentiment has found a new audience in global credit markets. Capital remains plentiful for the strongest borrowers, but increasingly scarce for the weakest. Not everyone will have access to capital, and for those with deteriorating creditworthiness, the cost of borrowing is becoming intolerable. The credit markets are "A Tale of Two Cities" (also about the French Revolution), the haves and the have-nots, as the bottom half of the K-shaped economy feels the pinch from tighter financial conditions, a rather peculiar development since GDP growth is robust. This tale is being played out across the AI complex, the delta between BBs and CCCs, and even in sovereign credit, as French OATs are feeling the heat. When the largest borrowers absorb trillions, the marginal borrower pays up or simply fails to raise capital, the lifeblood of existence. The buildout of data centers in the U.S. is projected to cost nearly $10T over the next 5 years, which is 3.6% of GDP per annum. However, I will take the under, as many projects will not have the capital, power, or regulatory approval to proceed. The four largest hyperscalers are expected to spend over $1T annually (we will get more information this week when they report earnings and discuss their CapEx plans), but with strong profits, multi-trillion-dollar market caps, and AA ratings, these companies can access credit as they build their AI moats. While on-B/S financing may be slightly wide to the IG index, off-B/S debt trades at an extra +100 bps spread. The neoclouds are relegated to the HY market, where credit availability has become problematic. Today, the largest, most successful neocloud's debt trades at 15%, and its 5-year CDS trades at ~1,100 bps, which is unsustainable. Gartner expects 80% of neoclouds to cease independent operation by 2030, as a shake-up is coming. The hyperscalers with strong balance sheets are in a position to pick up the pieces. France's 5.4% fiscal deficit, debt-to-GDP ratio of 120%, and 10-year OAT yield above 5% saw its spread to Bunds reach 178 bps last week. France pays more than Italy, putting its credit rating at risk. In the U.S., 6% deficits are not favorable either. However, access to capital is the key, and despite a $2 trillion funding gap for the current fiscal year, the market is open and willing. This crowds out other borrowers by raising the "risk-free" rate. When sovereigns pay more, everyone pays more. IG spreads and BBs are below long-run averages, while CCC spreads have blown out to ~1,300 bps, the widest on record during a time of prosperity (i.e., "let them eat cake"). Takeaway 1: It's a lender’s market. Takeaway 2: 2027 should be great for Direct Lending and Opportunistic Credit; the best vintages occur when capital is scarce, spreads are wide, and lenders are selective.

Félicitations, Président @LulaOficial, pour votre réélection au Brésil. Les relations entre le Canada et le Brésil ont progressé grâce à notre partenariat. Saisissons cette occasion pour les renforcer davantage, ensemble – afin de créer de nouvelles perspectives commerciales prometteuses, de protéger l'environnement et d’assurer une plus grande prospérité à nos deux populations.

Bolsonaro, Lula about even in polls for Brazil runoff vote reut.rs/4ewt9yR reut.rs/4ewt9yR

Brazil votes on Sunday in an election that'll help shape the future of the world: fascism or social progress. I’ve joined 40 MPs & 10 union general secretaries warning against Trump’s interference in Brazil, which is a blatant attempt to stop Lula winning nocoupinbrazil.wordpress.com…