Ex-founder. 20+ M&A deals. Public Market Investor

New York, USA
Joined December 2009
2025 is closed. Here is the damage. S&P 500: +16% Nasdaq: +19% My Portfolio: +52% (Audit in progress) This marks my 6th consecutive year compounding at >45% CAGR. While you were 'waiting for a pullback' on $APP and $HOOD, I was riding them to multi-bagger returns.
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Julian Ciccale retweeted
$IREN current challenges kind of reminds me of my original SaaS business. We had the best real product in the market. In IREN’s case, that’s Layer 1 and Layer 2: power, land, and datacenter infrastructure. But we were terrible at sales, marketing, and onboarding execution. That’s Layer 3. We were still successful and extremely profitable because if you control Layer 1 and Layer 2, profitability tends to follow naturally. But scaling was hard because scaling lives in Layer 3 and GTM execution. That’s why I think the key question for IREN is not whether they already have something valuable. Of course they do! The next question is whether they can nail Layer 3 and GTM strategy. That part is very difficult. The AI tailwind changes the magnitude of the opportunity, though. If they execute Layer 3 successfully on top of strong Layer 1 and 2 assets, I can understand why some people talk about “Trillion Dollar Club” potential. Even if they not "shine" on Layer 3 and GTM we're probably talking about a $100-$300B company
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I did not have time or willingness to post much these last few days. I tell you this: I bought multiple millions worth of $IREN shares. I wanted to increase my exposure after the $NVDA announcement on earnings. I almost hit buy at $60 but decided to hold. I added substantially at $54. No intention of timing the bottom, just wanted many more shares. I actually think this investment has derisked substantially the last couple of weeks: - Mirantis acquisition - NVDA partnership - NVDA AI contract - Funding at excellent rates - Sweetwater energisation I expect a major catalyst before summer. And even if my timing is off, I am extremely patient here. NFA
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After days of reflection I did some harsh clean up in my portfolio. Down to 5 names right now. Top position north of 50%. Nothing "wrong" with the businesses I've sold. It's just that my positions did not reflect my purest view of the future. Now it does.
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Closing even better than expected. Funding secured for next wave of deployments. $IREN looks primed to deliver.
$IREN pricing: 1% coupon is basically "zero risk". Behind closed doors, Dan and the team not only presented current contracted economics ($MSFT, $NVDA) but also pipeline and possible either LOI or term sheet for 2027 capacity. Only time will tell what exactly.
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Julian Ciccale retweeted
$IREN pricing: 1% coupon is basically "zero risk". Behind closed doors, Dan and the team not only presented current contracted economics ($MSFT, $NVDA) but also pipeline and possible either LOI or term sheet for 2027 capacity. Only time will tell what exactly.
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Anyone who judges a company's long term success by short term price action should be doing something else. $IREN long term path just got materially better the last few weeks. Next milestone for me is $50B MC
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Replying to @TheBigDegen
Excellent. After reflecting over the weekend, this is WAY BETTER than anyone, including me, expected. Getting the real support of the Godfather himself could not have been more bullish for the long-term thesis around $IREN. This changes the perception of the company!
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All good in the markets, all amazing with $IREN . Italian pleasures
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$IREN The only alpha I could extract from Dan today on the call. He says he explicitly wants a mix of Hyperscalers and AI lab. He also silently mentioned "AI lab like where all the innovations are happening" For me, [innovative] AI Lab is either OpenAI or Anthropic.
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No big deal announced for $IREN - disappointing? yes. Patience. I know Dan is trying to ink the right deal for us. From our side it feels like forever, but long term we want to avoid being bullied by Hyperscalers/AI lab. Otherwise the capital flywheel breaks.
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$IREN Nostrum Data Centers has 6 strategic data center sites across Spain, expected to become operational by 2027. The projects have already secured land and power, totaling 500MW of sustainable IT capacity. Locations: Badajoz, Cáceres, Guadalajara, Pinto, Zamudio, and Galicia. Basically all over center, west, and north.
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Daddy Jensen thank you from $IREN shareholders
🤖 Made with AI
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Replying to @kletstryit
$IREN see below, I've published my full model on my timeline a month or so ago. 2027 $187 / 2028 $232. These are my areas of focus.
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I sincerely trust the Roberts brother leadership of $IREN. They may not get everything 100% right. But I think at some point in the next 9-18 months, IREN will achieve escape velocity. Meaning AI ARR will start to accelerate the capital flywheel faster and faster!
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I say it every quarter but @elonmusk should partner with @AppLovin for @ads . The ad engine on X simply does not work, you could monetize this 30x or probably 50x using AppLoving tech
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$APP Matt saying ramping up spend to make the brand more visible, "Adam more visible" ..hehe good move. Definitely worth it
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Quick recap of the $BTC price action we're in: * YTD -5% (vs $QQQ +11%) * 1y -12% (vs $QQQ +41%) * 5y +40% (vs $QQQ +100%) I am not saying correlation or not, I'm just comparing returns of different assets. Clearly we're not in a BTC bull market, it hasn't even started yet
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The valuation metrics on $MU and $SNDK still look unbelievable. The worst part? They've run +600% and +1000% on the last 12 months. Take a look!
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$IREN investors research. I just run an AI SWOT analysis on k0rdent public github code (the main product from Mirantis). I still don't know what else do they have internally (I guess not everything is opensource) so take this SWOT analysis with a pinch of salt. Here it goes: k0rdent SWOT — for GPU Cloud at Scale (Blackwell / Vera Rubin) Caveat: k0rdent is a Kubernetes multi-cluster control plane (CAPI-based "super control plane" + observability/FinOps via kof). It is GPU-agnostic by design — it doesn't ship Blackwell/Rubin-specific operators. The analysis is about its fit as a substrate for a GPU cloud. Strengths - CAPI-native, declarative multi-cluster lifecycle — fits the "fleet of GPU clusters across regions/DCs/colos" pattern naturally; same YAML across AWS/Azure/bare-metal/edge. - Hybrid + bare-metal first-class — GPU economics push toward owned/colo bare metal (Blackwell HGX, GB200 NVL72, future Rubin racks); k0rdent's provider model handles this without forcing public cloud. - Beach-head services pattern (ksm + Sveltos) — clean place to layer NVIDIA GPU Operator, Network Operator (DOCA/BlueField), MIG/MPS config, NCCL tuning, Run:ai/KAI scheduler, Kueue, etc., consistently across every child cluster. - kof for observability + FinOps — GPU-hour cost attribution and utilization telemetry are the #1 ops problem at scale; having this in-tree is differentiating. - CNCF/Apache 2.0, Mirantis-backed, active community — neutral governance is important for sovereign/regulated GPU buyers (logsight/SPRIND case is exactly this). - Sovereign-AI proof point already — geo-distributed heterogeneous GPU orchestration is a validated use case in ADOPTERS.md, not a hypothetical. Weaknesses - No native GPU/accelerator abstractions — no first-class CRDs for GPU SKUs, NVLink/NVSwitch topology, fabric manager state, MIG profiles, or InfiniBand/Spectrum-X fabric. Operators must compose this themselves. - No scheduler opinion — gang scheduling, topology-aware placement (NVL72 domain awareness), and fractional GPU sharing require bolt-ons (Volcano/Kueue/Run:ai). Out-of-the-box K8s scheduler is wrong for training. - Young project — kcm is pre-1.0; operators running 10k-GPU production may hit sharp edges in upgrade/rollback paths. - CAPI bare-metal story is uneven — Tinkerbell/Metal3 work but provisioning DGX/HGX/NVL72-class hardware (BMC quirks, NVSwitch firmware, fabric bring-up) is still bespoke. - Limited inference-serving primitives — no built-in equivalent of KServe/NIM/Triton autoscaling patterns; again, layering required. Opportunities - Blackwell/Rubin rack-scale shifts the unit of compute from "node" to "rack domain" (NVL72, future Rubin Ultra NVL576). A super-control-plane that treats a rack as a cluster fits this better than traditional node-centric K8s management. - Sovereign AI / neocloud tailwind — CoreWeave/Lambda/Crusoe-style buildouts and EU/ME sovereign clouds need exactly k0rdent's "fleet of clusters across jurisdictions with policy" shape. - Define GPU-aware templates — shipping opinionated ClusterTemplates for Blackwell HGX, GB200 NVL72, and Rubin reference designs would be a strong moat. - FinOps for GPU-hours is an underserved category; kof could become the reason people pick k0rdent. - Partner with NVIDIA NIM / DGX Cloud Lepton / Mission Control — interoperability story rather than reinvention. Threats - Direct competition is well-funded: Run:ai (NVIDIA-acquired), NVIDIA Mission Control / Base Command, Rafay, Spectro Cloud Palette, CoreWeave's internal stack, OpenShift AI. Several have GPU-specific features k0rdent lacks. - NVIDIA vertical integration risk — Mission Control + BCM + Run:ai may become the default "rack OS" for Blackwell/Rubin, squeezing third-party control planes into a thinner layer. - Hardware churn cadence — Blackwell → Blackwell Ultra → Rubin → Rubin Ultra in ~12-month steps. Any platform that doesn't track NVIDIA's reference architectures lags hard. - Networking is the real battleground — Spectrum-X / Quantum-X / NVLink fabric management is increasingly proprietary; a generic CAPI control plane has limited leverage there. - Bare-metal Day-2 (firmware, fabric, GPU RMA workflows) — if k0rdent stays K8s-layer-only, big GPU operators will keep their own out-of-band tooling and treat it as "just another K8s manager." Bottom line Good substrate, not yet a GPU cloud platform. k0rdent's multi-cluster + bare-metal + FinOps trio is a credible foundation for a Blackwell/Rubin fleet, especially for sovereign and neocloud builders who don't want NVIDIA's full vertical stack. To win the GPU-at-scale narrative it needs: (1) opinionated Blackwell/NVL72/Rubin templates, (2) a default topology-aware scheduling story, (3) deeper bare-metal Day-2, and (4) a clear interop position vs. NVIDIA Mission Control rather than overlap.
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Congrats to $NBIS shareholders on new ATH! I get the frustration if you're a pure $IREN investor. I went back through my process and the reasons I picked $IREN over $NBIS. I still stand by that decision. Yes, we're here to make money, but the reasons that kept me out of $NBIS haven't changed. Why $NBIS did not pass my own filter: Spread too thin across geographies and product lines, with a Euro-centric footprint that I find harder to model than a power-first US operator Yandex lineage and Russian ties leave me without a clean read on management. I have no real way to judge Arkady or the team beyond stock price action and the validation of a 2B Nvidia investment plus 20B+ in META and MSFT deals. That's real validation, I'm not dismissing it. But "the market and Nvidia like them" is not a framework I can incorporate in my process. Maybe Roman is a genius and I missed it. I'm fine with that outcome. I'd rather miss a winner than hold a name I cannot model. Why $IREN did pass it: Track record I can actually inspect, with multi-year execution on power, sites, and capital Power-first approach. In AI HPC, energized capacity is the bottleneck, not GPUs Better capital and contract transparency. I can build a model on $IREN. Long-term execution lens over operating news flow The honest part: Neither company has truly delivered yet (and very few actual neoclouds). Actual revenue from these contracts is a few tranches in, far from full ramp. So the gap in stock performance is the market pricing narrative, not delivered fundamentals. It means $IREN repricing is still ahead if (full) 2026 lands the way I expect. What I care about more than short term price action is the process
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