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VC @Deviationcap, formerly @rtpvc, @OpenView & Head of Research at @MassChallenge. talking startups or complaining about Boston sports
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Joined July 2011
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Such a fun read
The World is Changing: AI For Creativity
By Jeffrey Katzenberg
A few months ago, I sat in my office in Silicon Valley and watched as a tech founder showed me something extraordinary. On the screen was a fully realized, beautifully lit, well-composed animated scene. It was stunning and it made me feel exactly what I felt in 1986 watching Luxo Jr. That was the first time I watched a computer-animated 3D character take a breath and seem, against all reason, to have life. It left me in awe.
Later that day, I received a text from an artist I've known for thirty years, 350 miles to the south, in the city where I spent most of my career. After seeing a similar video, she texted: "Is this the end of us?" My answer was, "Certainly not.”
I have spent the better part of the last decade in Silicon Valley, but the heart of my career has been in Hollywood. Being deeply connected to both worlds means I have deep loyalties to each and a responsibility to speak honestly to both.
In 2023, I said that these new AI tools would cut the time and cost of producing world-class animation by as much as ninety percent within three years. Some colleagues were alarmed, many were furious.
There is growing fear and resistance surrounding AI within the creative community. I deeply understand it, because I've spent countless hours walking through animation studios watching gifted artists bent over their desks, rebuilding a single second of film for the tenth time because the ninth version wasn't quite right. I've sat in screening rooms where four years of people's labor played out in minutes, and I knew the name of every person that had spent countless hours bringing those images to life. The creative process is a calling, there's really no other way to describe it. From the outside some see resistance. From the inside, it is love.
People do not fight this hard for things they don't care about. The pushback coming out of Hollywood represents the collective effort of people who are deeply passionate about their craft.
Is History Repeating Itself?
The history here is more complicated than either side may realize. In 1906, the most famous composer in America, John Philip Sousa, published an essay titled “The Menace of Mechanical Music." He warned that the phonograph would become "a substitute for human skill, intelligence and soul."
Sousa's fight was not really about the machine, it was about money. The machines were playing his compositions, and the men who built them weren't paying him a cent. His campaign helped create the Copyright Act of 1909. He did not stop the technology. He changed the terms under which it could use his work.
A hundred years ago, sound came to the movies. We remember it now as a miracle, and it was. What we forget is who paid for it. Before sound, tens of thousands of musicians made their living in the orchestra pits of movie houses, scoring every film live, every night, in towns all over the world. When the soundtrack arrived, the work of one composer and one orchestra was recorded for a film that went into thousands of theaters. The union fought back with everything it had, taking out newspaper ads across the country warning against the menace of "canned music," one of them showing a mechanical man tearing the strings out of a harp while an angel wept.
They were not fools, and they were not Luddites. They were right. Those pit jobs did not come back. And yet (this is the part we have to be brave enough to admit), sound gave us the movie musical, the modern score, sfx, sound design, audio engineering, and an art form vastly larger than the one it disrupted. And it helped keep Hollywood in the forefront of world entertainment for the rest of the century and into the next. The loss was real. And yet the art form expanded.
This is a story that has been told over and over again. To resist technology is to risk irrelevance. Just look at Kodak or Blockbuster. To embrace technology is to open doors of new possibility. Just consider Apple and Netflix.
What I Learned From Walt Disney
In the mid-1980s, I was tapped to lead Disney's animation division at a moment when the studio was at an inflection point. Animation wasn't just another business unit. It was the soul of the company, a medium revered because of Walt's genius and his passion. But the production system was cumbersome and unforgiving. A single movie was 125,000 individual hand-drawn and painted cels, photographed one frame at a time. Every revision carried a cost measured in months. These degrees of difficulty shaped the kinds of stories we could tell.
We found our way forward in an unexpected place: Walt himself. The Disney archives held astonishing recordings of Walt explaining his creative process. His own writings. His notes and storyboards. Work product captured at every stage of his process. This was truly a gift. Listening, reading, sitting with the work itself, we heard him talk about character, about emotion, about how an audience feels when a character truly comes alive. He talked about making bold choices and refining a scene until it genuinely moved people. We didn't hear a word about pencils or paintbrushes. In fact, Walt was famous for being a technologist, forever hunting for state-of-the-art tools, often inventing them himself to achieve the images he saw in his head. But he never defined animation by the tools. He defined it by whether the audience believed the character. His principles were timeless. The tools were not.
That realization changed everything. We co-developed the Computer Animation Production System (CAPS) with a young Northern California company called Pixar, replacing hand-painted cels with CGI. In The Little Mermaid, the final scene shimmered with a dimensionality and light that the old process simply couldn't achieve. In Beauty and the Beast, the ballroom sequence moved with a cinematic sweep that placed the audience inside the emotion of the moment. In Aladdin, the Cave of Wonders felt vast and alive, and the Magic Carpet became an intricate, compelling character all its own. In The Lion King, the stampede carried a scale and intensity that raised the emotional stakes beyond anything we'd done before. Technology didn't diminish the craft, it expanded the canvas. It gave artists more room to create.
A decade later, the canvas expanded again. When Disney released Pixar's Toy Story, it wasn't simply a technical milestone. It was proof that a fully computer-animated film could carry real emotional weight, that it could make audiences laugh, cry, and believe. At DreamWorks, we made the difficult decision to sunset hand-drawn animation and become a fully computer-animated studio. It was the right thing to do, but it was not without pain. It cost talented people their place in an industry where they had worked their whole lives. Some made the leap to the new tools and did the finest work of their careers. Some never did.
Tools are never the point. The instruments change with every generation. What endures is taste and imagination. The magical ability to make an audience feel. One of the greatest storytellers of our generation, George Lucas, succinctly captured the eternal essence of this issue: “It’s not the how, it’s the why.”
A Distinction With a Difference
I asked one of the leading AI models a question that has been challenging me for months. What is the difference between reasoning and creating? Its answer changed how I think about almost everything happening in this industry. It said . . .
Reasoning and creating are two distinct cognitive modes, though they also work together. Reasoning is fundamentally evaluative and analytical. It operates on what already exists: facts, premises, evidence. It moves toward a conclusion that was in a sense already implied by the input. Reasoning is constrained by logic and truth. Its goal is to arrive somewhere correct, not to invent somewhere new.
Creating is fundamentally generative. It produces something that didn't exist before. And crucially, there's no single right answer waiting to be found. A blank page has infinite valid responses. Creation involves choices that can't be fully justified by logic alone. Taste, intuition and vision fill the gap where deduction runs out.
Reasoning is what Silicon Valley has been perfecting. Creating is what Hollywood has been practicing for more than a century. AI today operates almost entirely on the reasoning side of the line. It can deduce, evaluate, optimize, and pattern-match brilliantly. And while it can create, there is a real distinction to being creative. What it doesn’t yet have is those things that make us human: empathy, devotion, serendipity, the kind of creativity that comes from a person trying to say something only they could say. When the bot generates a piece of art, it is not trying to communicate anything. It is statistics, not soul; it is emulating things that have been done. By contrast, human creativity isn’t about repeating patterns of zeros and ones; it is about doing something new.
One day, AI may close this gap. Three years ago, the leaders building AI would have called what they are achieving today, improbable, if not impossible. Impossible is no longer improbable.
Today, the line between reasoning and creating is real. Even the leading technologists acknowledge we are not there yet. There is no scientific path to crossing this divide that anyone in the field can articulate today. Understanding that gap is where we will find common ground.
A Path Forward
In 2016, I closed one chapter in Hollywood with the sale of DreamWorks and opened another in Northern California, co-founding WndrCo. We’ve backed more than 50 founders building the next generation of technology and watched how breakthroughs in Silicon Valley emerge, first as experiments, then as platforms, and finally as infrastructure that reshapes entire industries. It's worth remembering that the last great revolution in animation also came from the north. Pixar was a Northern California company, forged not in the conventions of the Hollywood studio system, but in the technological breakthroughs of Silicon Valley. I've spent years on both sides of this bridge. For sure, I don’t have all the answers (take Quibi, for one!). But, from my past and present vantage points of my long career, here is what I see . . .
Brilliant people in Northern California building this technology have made something extraordinary. They have earned the right for the rest of us to be, if not believers, at least optimistic that what comes next will be remarkable. But they have not made an artist. The tools are powerful, but they are not what makes a story matter. That knowledge lives 350 miles to the south, inside people whose life's work has informed the very models you are building. The right path forward includes them by design, with credit, with consent, and with compensation. Build this with the storytellers. Not on top of them. Taste is not something that can be synthesized, it is uniquely human.
At the same time, Hollywood needs to accept that AI is not going away. The energy they are spending trying to make it disappear is energy they are not spending deciding the terms on which it will exist. And the terms are everything. The north needs something from it that they cannot build and cannot buy: creativity. The kind that takes a blank page and conjures a single right answer where there was none and has held audiences for a century. Without it, the most powerful reasoning engine ever invented will still be missing the only thing that makes a story worth telling.
The artists who learn to wield these new instruments will do things the engineers never dreamed of. They always have. Edison invented the motion picture but made terrible movies. It took Chaplin, Lloyd, Keaton and so many others to make movies emotional. Now, the canvas is about to expand yet again. We should decide now that we intend to paint on it.
There are so many valuable lessons in history. This has happened many times before, and it was never settled by the technology. It was settled by the terms. Sousa did not stop the phonograph; he helped write the law that made sure composers got paid. And two years ago, when the writers and the actors walked out, they were fighting for the very things Sousa was fighting for in 1906. Consent, compensation, the basic recognition that human creative work has a price that must be paid. The terms of that fight are still being negotiated, but the principle is older than any of us.
The tools-versus-no-tools argument is a trap. First, we must all agree that there should be terms. Then we can have the crucial debate about what fairness requires.
What I Learned From Steve Jobs
Years ago, Steve Jobs said, "It's in Apple's DNA that technology alone is not enough. It's technology married with the liberal arts, married with the humanities, that yields us the result that makes our hearts sing." He was describing a device. But he could just as easily have been describing this tale of two cities.
What I See Coming Soon
As the barriers and the costs come down, more films will get made, not fewer. Studios will get to take more risks. There will be more seats at the table, and very soon entirely new forms of storytelling. In the 1980s, animation was dismissed as a niche corner of the business. Today it is one of the most beloved and profitable forms of storytelling in the world. In live action, filmmakers like Steven Spielberg, James Cameron and Peter Jackson embraced new visual tools not as shortcuts, but as instruments, and expanded cinema in the process. Every time storytelling has met a genuine technological shift, from synchronized sound to color to computer animation, it has redefined the boundaries of the medium and grown larger in the process.
Assuredly, I don’t have all the answers, but I am confident that the creative opportunities will expand yet again. How we come through this is a choice. The north has the new tools. The south has the creative soul. The best future will draw on the best of both worlds.
Joe Botsch retweeted
This video of the Patriots after the 2019 AFC Championship in KC is incredible.
We’ll never see a leader like Tom Brady again. Goes up to every single person in the locker room. Belichick looks so happy. Gronk is awesome. Edelman saying “I wanna play to make you great” is so cool to see. This was peak Patriots football. This is what made the dynasty so great.
Joe Botsch retweeted
Automation creates a paradox.
As AI gets better:
→ Humans intervene less often
→ The situations that require us get harder
→ Meanwhile, our own skills decay from lack of use
We’ve seen this before in aviation. Pilots use simulators to stay prepared for rare situations that normal flying no longer exposes them to.
We may need the same thing for AI: simulators for knowledge workers that continually expose us to edge cases, failures and counterfactuals.
AI creates the skill-decay problem. It may also be the technology that solves it.
guruchahal.substack.com/p/th…
Great stuff from @StefanoErmon and the @_inception_ai team
Today's LLMs can't generate token 10 until token 9 exists.
@_inception_ai CEO @StefanoErmon thinks he's found the winner: diffusion LLMs that generate tokens in parallel.
New episode of No Priors, out now.
Joe Botsch retweeted
A few thoughts on the current state of venture capital.
When the Music Is Playing
In July 2007, a few weeks before the credit markets seized up, Chuck Prince, then the CEO of Citigroup, gave an interview to the Financial Times. The line everyone remembers is this one: "As long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance." He was mocked for it for years afterward, and he lost his job a few months later. But I have come to think he was saying something honest. He wasn't claiming the music would play forever. He was admitting that he couldn't sit down while it was still going, and neither could anyone else in his seat.
I've been thinking about that quote a lot lately, because right now is the most disorienting period in venture capital I can remember, and I have been doing this for a while.
Here is what makes it disorienting. It's not that things are bad. Some things are spectacular. We have companies in our portfolio growing faster than anything I have seen in my career, and I don't say that lightly. At the same time, we have companies with no revenue, no product, and a founding team you could fit in a conference room raising billions of dollars at valuations of $10 to $50 billion. Both of these things are true at once, and if you try to reason about them with the same framework you will drive yourself crazy.
Two ideas have helped me make sense of it. Neither is mine.
The first is reflexivity, which George Soros has been writing about since the 1980s. In most of life, perception follows reality: the weather is what it is, and your opinion of it changes nothing. In markets, it runs the other way too. Prices change what participants believe, and what participants believe changes the prices. The feedback loop can run for a long time, and while it's running it looks exactly like progress.
Here is how reflexivity is playing out in AI. Full disclosure: Menlo is an investor in Anthropic, so read the following with that in mind. People watched a frontier lab go from a $4 billion valuation to $18 billion, then $60 billion, then $180 billion, then $380 billion, and now something close to a trillion. They drew the obvious conclusion: that is what a neo lab looks like. So the next neo lab gets priced off that path, not off anything it has built. Then it gets marked up in a subsequent round, and the markup itself becomes the proof. Look at Thinking Machines. Look at Reflection. At that point valuation has stopped being an output of the metrics and has become the metric. Nobody is discounting cash flows. They are discounting the last round.
Soros is very clear about one thing, and it's the part people skip: you cannot know when or how a reflexive process ends. You only know that it does. Every one of them has.
The second idea is Chuck Prince's, and it explains why smart people keep dancing even when they can see the loop for what it is. As far as I can tell, there are two groups on the dance floor.
The first group got in early. Firms like ours were in some of these AI companies before the numbers got silly, and the paper gains are enormous. When you are sitting on gains like that, you start to feel like you're playing with house money. I have been around long enough to know that house money is the most dangerous kind, because you don't respect it the way you respect money you had to earn.
The second group missed the early rounds and knows it. Their LPs know it too. So they are trying to make up for lost time by writing very large checks very late, which is the one strategy almost guaranteed to turn a missed opportunity into a real loss.
House money on one side, FOMO on the other, and reflexivity feeding both. That's the whole story. Everyone has a reason to keep dancing, and the reasons are different, which is why nobody can talk anyone else off the floor.
So what do you do? The instinct in our business is to answer with company identification: just pick the right neo lab and you'll be fine. I think that's the trap. When price has become the signal, being right about the company is not enough, because you can be right about the company and still be wrong about the price by a factor of ten. The public-market investors I admire figured this out a long time ago. They spend as much time on how much to own as on what to own.
The winners in venture over the next decade will be the firms that treat portfolio composition and position sizing as seriously as they treat sourcing. How much of the fund is in companies whose valuation rests on the last round rather than on revenue? What happens to the portfolio if the reflexive loop breaks next year instead of in five? Those are not exciting questions. They are the ones that will matter.
The music will stop. It always does. Dance if you must, but know where the chairs are.
Joe Botsch retweeted
NEVER thought i would hear this from jeff dean
he thinks we can compress chip design from 2 years to 3 months with RL + new EDA tooling
essentially just by a specialized auto research loop for hardware!
Joe Botsch retweeted
Replying to @aronchick @thorstenball
Joe Botsch retweeted
How a robot arm is controlled, explained for ML people new to robot learning. First of the explainers from my own speedrun.
Next one will be on ACT. Follow me to catch it.
Joe Botsch retweeted
At REAL Summit 2026, Moira Doherty shared how we’re working with @SamsungSDSA to connect Walden robots into existing factory systems and workflows. Samsung SDS assigns the task through its interface, while the robot works with tools already in the process and reports back when the work is done.
That kind of systems-level integration is a big part of making general-purpose robots useful in production, where fitting into the existing workflow matters just as much as doing the task.
I don’t get to listen to @985TheSportsHub as much anymore but good to see Mazz still can’t let himself be happy. Payton Tolle is a national treasure and @Jared_Carrabis needs to get him on the pod asap
How did they get this many of my favorite people on one panel!? @ryancjulian @adnothing.
Robots are easy in the lab. Production is where reality bites.
On Thurs Sep 24, I’ll be moderating with @nikhilabm @ralfgulde @joshgruenstein @adnothing on what it actually takes to close the reality gap and ship Physical AI.
Fellows Forum, 2:20–3pm PT — live + streaming.
Joe Botsch retweeted
Some news: 5 months ago I joined @coreauto, a small research lab focused on new ways for models to learn. I’m also hiring four interns to do something my younger self would've loved.
It started with a pretty unusual project. We set up a handful of small online businesses, and put an agent in charge. We gave each business some initial funding and a seed idea, and off they went, trying to sell real things to real customers while we watched. It’s about as open-ended and unforgiving a task as you can probably give to an agent, with countless decisions to make and effects that take time to become clear.
Each business got its own bank account, a debit card to pay suppliers, a web browser, an email inbox, a domain name, cloud infrastructure and a schedule. Every few hours, the agent woke up and decided what to do. It might update a landing page, adjust an ad campaign, reply to a customer, and then go back to sleep.
The agents built actual storefronts and apps. They bought ads, attracted visitors, and even made some sales. The agents acted as operators that kept a business moving, but we noticed they never really stepped back to strategize about what might move the needle. If people weren’t buying, why? Was the landing page unappealing? Or maybe the offer itself was the problem?
One amusing example was the very first order a customer placed. Our supplier had run out of stock. But it’s a dropshipping business, and thankfully tens of other suppliers carried the same product. Instead of trying another supplier, the agent almost immediately sent the customer a polite apology and attempted to issue a refund. Gah! So close!
The agents could handle much of the work of getting a business up and running. What they struggled with was deciding what to change when it wasn’t working.
That’s what we want to understand. We also want to see what changes when people take the lead. What does a business operator actually do all day when agents can do so much? What new work does this allow them to do? Which decisions can’t be delegated?
—
So this winter we're hiring 4 interns as Associate General Managers. Associate Product Manager internships are programs that give early career generalists a product to own. We want to try something similar, but with entire businesses.
You’ll create and grow businesses, with agents handling the routine work so you can focus on figuring out what matters. Each AGM gets a budget and our agent infrastructure that’s designed for this. Which ideas to try is up to you. Put more money behind what finds customers and keep refining.
Where you step in tells us what agents can't do yet. You'll be in our SF office with me and people I’m so fortunate to work with, like @_arohan_, @joannejang, @MillionInt, @marksaroufim and @juliacvillagra
We don't care much where you went to school or what your resume looks like. We’re looking for enterprising people with a drive to create, who’ve made money on the internet before and already use AI extensively to enable their ideas. If that sounds like you: coreauto.com/AGM
Joe Botsch retweeted
Full essay can be read here - tinyurl.com/aisafetyisoutoft…
Joe Botsch retweeted
The end of human abstraction.
Inspired by @mustafa01ali and @ShopifyEng's announcement of dropping React Native due to AI.
kenneth.io/post/the-end-of-h…
Joe Botsch retweeted
Stacked event with many of my favorite people! Join us for some hard earned insights about how to rapidly deploy general-purpose robots that are broadly useful across industries and learn continuously in production!
Robotics and world models take center stage at @FellowsForum 2026 on September 24, cohosted by @Fellows_Fund and @nebiusai, in partnership with @nvidia.
For founders and researchers building Physical AI, how often do you get to hear from this many leading robotics and world-model teams in one place?
We’re bringing together leaders from @NVIDIA, @GeneralistAI, @RhodaAI, @odysseyml, @Waymo, @DynaRobotics, @CloudChef, @Tutor Intelligence, @SereactAI, and @WaldenRobotics, for a full day of intensive discussions on how AI learns, understands, and acts in the physical world.
sorry for the radio silence folks - got sucked into extreme LLM psychosis. but i can confidently say we have crossed over into a new age of AI Engineering and we are never, ever, looking back.
this isnt even EVERYTHING i did with Astra but i'll append more reports as I publish them on LS!
We spent >20B tokens throwing @openai's Astra at every AI Engineering task we could think of, beyond cute Blender demos and fun games.
latent.space/p/astra
Here's everything Astra can do, and do so at <$6 an hour (serious):
- choose and train models
- label data (both helping you label and then using your labels for active learning)
- keep pipelines saturated
- instrument and read logs
- deploy and debug entire systems in one shot
- fan out and command and eval subagents (including agents running other models)
- keep coherence over billions of tokens of a single agent thread.
more to come on @swyx's coverage of the Fable- and Astra-class of 2026!