
Economics reporter at @MarketWatch. Writing from Washington on economics and a dash of politics. "Home" economist. Send comments to [email protected]
Washington, D.C.
Joined August 2010
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The September jobs report will probably show further improvement in a "low-hire" labor market, but it's still not a great time to find a new job. Fortunately layoffs are also incredibly low. So it's a low-fire jobs market, too. marketwatch.com/story/septem… via @MarketWatch
U.S. manufacturers say inflation is bad and it's not getting any better. Tariff hangover, high oil prices, supply disruptions... "Every month, we are faced with new headwinds created by this administration," one top exec told ISM. marketwatch.com/story/u-s-ma… via @MarketWatch
The U.S. economy is defying gravity. A lot of pretty good news today. Strange, I have to admit. But then, layoffs and unemployment are low. And a Godzilla-sized AI boom is transforming the economy ... marketwatch.com/story/the-u-… via @MarketWatch
Investors saw evidence of inflation cooling in the Fed's preferred PCE price barometer. Good news? A bit. Yet inflation is still rising 3% a year - far too high for a Fed aiming for 2%. More interest-rate hikes are still on the table. marketwatch.com/story/inflat… via @MarketWatch
Americans get back to their spending ways. And the economy seems to have sped up again. I know, the economy is not great. Inflation is a big reason why. But it's certainly not bad, all things considering ... marketwatch.com/story/americ… via @MarketWatch
That surprising big 162,000 increase in new U.S. jobs in August didn't seem real to me at the time and still doesn't. Hard to believe it's sustainable, if accurate. Job openings are low, hiring is weak and jobseekers are depressed. marketwatch.com/story/job-op… via @MarketWatch
Businesses are growing at the fastest pace in over four years. War and inflation aren’t putting the brakes on the U.S. economy. One of the chief drivers is controversial. Hint: Think Terminator movies. marketwatch.com/story/busine… via @MarketWatch
Retail sales surged near summer end. My first reaction: The U.S. economy has plenty of momentum. My second? The numbers don't tell the real human story. If you own stocks and have a well paying job, great. If not, it's tough out there. marketwatch.com/story/retail… via @MarketWatch
Wall Street & Main Street used to rely on so-called Fed watchers to tell us what a once-secretive Fed was doing Then 14 years ago a more open Fed created a 'dotplot' to guide us. And now? The dots may go away under a Warsh-led Fed.
marketwatch.com/story/how-ma… via @MarketWatch
Is AT&T going to dial up a Fed interest-rate hike? OK, I exaggerate. But the 'hot' core CPI in August seems to be a result of an odd - and record rise - in wireless prices. A&TT ended some older, cheaper plans. Big, er, call for the Fed. marketwatch.com/livecoverage… via @marketwatch
Higher interest rates seem like a done deal after a hottish August CPI. But with the new Kevin Warsh-led Federal Reserve, I wouldn't bet the house on it. Rate of inflation didn't go up. Problem is, it didn't really show signs of slowing. marketwatch.com/livecoverage… via @marketwatch
Wholesale inflation has been stirred up again by Iran war and high oil prices. Enough to guarantee a Fed interest-rate hike next week? No. But the PPI tips the scales in that direction. CPI report on Friday will be the decider. marketwatch.com/story/wholes… via @MarketWatch
The Fed is going might raise a key U.S. interest rate next week - and its vote hinges on two key inflation reports in the next two days. Can't recall the last time Wall Street was so uncertain. Big decision for all Americans. marketwatch.com/story/fed-ra… via @MarketWatch
The economy supposedly added 162,000 jobs in August. Good number - if it's real. Jobs report has been more erratic & less reliable the past few years. The best way to put it is, the labor market is 'stable.' Slow hiring and few layoffs. marketwatch.com/livecoverage… via @marketwatch
U.S. economy (GDP) was better than it looked in the spring. Much better, even with painful inflation (I feel it every day). Yet it might be due for a slowdown as we head toward the fall, esp. if the Fed raises interest rates. marketwatch.com/story/the-u-… via @MarketWatch
Consumer spending rose in the middle of summer at the slowest pace in 7 months. The U.S. economy might be losing a little steam after the World Cup. Still growing though, and unlikely to wilt thanks to low unemployment and AI boom. marketwatch.com/story/consum… via @MarketWatch
U.S. inflation rises again and stays well above the Fed’s target. A September interest-rate hike is in play. Latest PCE might not push the Fed over the edge, but it sure is close. marketwatch.com/story/u-s-in… via @MarketWatch
Bad news for the economy? Retail sales slumped in July and posted the biggest drop in 14 months. Dive deeper into the details and it's not so bad. Cheaper gas and an Amazon Prime hangover were the chief culprits. Economy is all right. marketwatch.com/story/retail… via @MarketWatch
U.S. inflation might be slowing. That's what yesterday's consumer price report and today's wholesale price report signal. Yeah, inflation is still too high. Yet a Fed rate hike next month is now in doubt. marketwatch.com/story/wholes… via @MarketWatch
I asked yesterday: Should the Fed stay or go? July CPI didn't answer the question. Inflation was tame for the 2nd month in a row. Odds of a Fed rate hike fell, but it's not a done deal. Fed will get more jobs & inflation info before mid-September meeting. marketwatch.com/livecoverage…


















