Mark Carney made a strong debut this week, but the real story is what he left undone. The government staged a polished housewarming, and the fresh paint could not hide the structural questions beneath it. Investors and voters alike will care less about the symbolism than about whether the place is solid enough to trust. A few visible gestures are not the same as a convincing economic program. The hard tests remain: credibility, discipline, and a clear plan for growth and spending. Until those are answered, the government will look renovated on the outside but uncertain on the inside. The latest from the Globe's business commentary, by John Rapley: theglobeandmail.com/business…

The economy is entering a late-cycle reckoning after years of being lulled by cheap money and rising asset prices. A war-driven oil shock has joined debt, inflation and weakening confidence to create a dangerous new mix. Like a frog in boiling water, gradual deterioration has let households, businesses and governments take on too much leverage without enough alarm. Rising prices and higher borrowing costs now threaten spending, profits and financial stability at the same time. The stock market has been buoyed by easy conditions, but those gains rest on increasingly fragile foundations. The result is an apocalypse of complacency giving way to a harsh adjustment, with savings eroded and vulnerabilities finally exposed. The latest from the Globe's business commentary, by John Rapley: theglobeandmail.com/business…

Trump’s push toward war with Iran threatens to unleash far more economic damage than military gain. The most immediate danger is not on the battlefield but in financial markets. A prolonged conflict would likely drive inflation higher by raising energy costs and disrupting trade. That would also push interest rates upward as investors demand more compensation for risk and inflation. The result is a bond market shock that can ripple through the entire economy. Trump may have aimed at Iran, but the larger detonation could hit households, borrowers and investors at home. The latest from the Globe's business commentary, by John Rapley: theglobeandmail.com/business…

Canada cannot have full independence, prosperity, and geopolitical comfort all at once. The country now faces a hard choice between relying on the United States for security and prosperity or accepting the costs of standing apart. For years, Canada enjoyed the advantages of American power without paying the full price of sovereignty. That easy arrangement is ending, and pretending otherwise will only leave the country more exposed. If Canada wants to be truly “master of its own destiny,” it must be willing to spend more, endure more, and make tougher choices. The alternative is to slip back into the American embrace and accept a quieter, less demanding, but less independent future. The latest from the Globe's business commentary, by John Rapley: theglobeandmail.com/business…

The recent trade deal's fine print will be crucial in determining whether former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney successfully negotiated terms that allow Canada to maintain its economic strategy. While broad strokes of the agreement have been publicized, the devil is in the details, and these details will show the extent to which Canadian interests have been safeguarded amidst the deal. It's reassuring to remember that Canada has a historical precedent of weathering trade tensions with its southern neighbor. Despite the challenges that such disputes bring, Canada has demonstrated resilience and adaptability in maintaining its economic stability. This ability to endure and thrive under pressure will serve Canada well as the specifics of the new trade agreement are rolled out. The ultimate impact of the trade deal will largely hinge on whether Carney and his team have managed to secure provisions that align with Canada's long-term economic goals while navigating the complexities of international trade diplomacy. The latest from the Globe's business commentary, by John Rapley: theglobeandmail.com/business…