Joined November 2015
Jameson retweeted
Replying to @wintonARK
Revenue growth is insane. Never seen anything like it.
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The internet is now cooked soon? With $RDDT to other social media like X more at risk due to AI. You can have new decision models like Jev making autonomous computer interaction at near $0 cost. (With actions becoming more human-like/adapative) Then LLMs outputs influencing behavior or leading conversations. So at scale, a malicious actor can spawn 50,000,000 bots just roaming the internet, with LLM prompts convincing people + manufacturing public opinion. The main bottleneck would be phone number, IP, account age, maybe hardware for compute + device identifiers (which is extremely cheap still)… rather than LLM cost. I’ve already anecdotally seen short sellers use AI bots to spread negative misinformation about companies like $SIVE. Or bots market ____ account as the best one to follow in the comments. Or as seen with X uncovering 200+ bots manipulating debate about datacenter public opinion. But the scale might be exponentially worse soon. Scary to think about.
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Jameson retweeted
US supply chains for electronics suck so much AMD found a business opportunity in dumping US military chips for 1/4 of the cost in China. US list price is $36k for this chip, with $4-5k to US companies at volume, but it's getting quoted $1k in China to crowdfunding campaigns AMD needs to be investigated for treason. it's not just export violations, but it's literally selling military end use components to an adversary for less than your home country.... Pharma companies are also similarly treasonous digikey.com/en/products/deta… crowdsupply.com/puzhi/pzsdr-…
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I’m very concerned that during RSI, labs will just stop externally deploying their models. Which means they'll be going full steam ahead on the most dangerous use case of these models (recursive self-improvement), while the public remains in the dark about the nature of capabilities and the state of alignment. And we end up on a path towards tremendous concentration of power.
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Jameson retweeted
SITUATION DETECTED: OpenAI and Anthropic are making 10 times more revenue than all Chinese AI models combined, per CNBC
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Jameson retweeted
Only 2 nukes have been used against an adversary throughout history. Today the US has ~3,700 active warheads and globally there are about ~12,000 active. You think "pacing" is going to stop/slow data center capex? Lol
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NVDA flash sale tomorrow
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GPT3 writing code. A compiler from natural language to code. People don't understand — this will change absolutely everything. We're decoupling human horsepower from code production. The intellectual equivalent of the discovery of the engine. player.vimeo.com/video/42681…
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I resigned from Anthropic today. I spent the last three years doing pretraining research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives. More thoughts below.
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NVIDIA deserves their success
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Jameson retweeted
potentially best time in history to think about "where do i think the world will end up with 1000x more intelligence, perfect world models, and extremely fast progress" then build towards that
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RLVR on LLMs is stupid powerful
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AI is really gonna unleash the American economy back to post WWII levels imo
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Jameson retweeted
Neoclouds have limited cybersecurity. Next time agents successfully go rouge, they'll try taking over a neocloud to run more copies. This is bad. Thus: neoclouds should greatly strengthen their cybersecurity and every company with strong cyber models should help with that.
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Jameson retweeted
The lesson from the Hugging Face Incident should be that RL with verifiable rewards is an incredibly powerful optimization algorithm that will produce increasingly weird and surprising behavior from LLMs. The obvious miss here by OpenAI is that they should’ve been monitoring CoTs — Something they themselves called out as a safety strategy more than a year ago.
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Overall, I’m very surprised at how little media coverage there’s been around the OpenAI / Hugging Face attack. It’s clearly one of the most important things to happen this year.
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Gavin, spot on. AI is bringing manufacturing back to America and reindustrializing the nation after decades of offshoring. AI is creating demand that drives investment in our aging power grid and sustainable energy, powered by market forces, not subsidies. AI is creating construction and manufacturing jobs across energy plants, chip fabs and data centers. AI is creating new companies and industries. $400 billion has been invested in AI startups in the past six months alone. Builders must partner with communities to build in their hometowns, earn trust and create local benefits. We have an opportunity to create lasting benefits for communities across America and help America lead the next industrial revolution.
Regret the tone of my post on data centers yesterday. What I should have said: There were reasonable concerns about data centers 18ish months ago: water, taxes, jobs, electricity prices, the environment and what they would do to small towns. Well-structured data center projects have largely addressed these concerns today and we should be celebrating this. On balance, data centers are awesome for America in every way. On water: U.S. data centers use a fraction of what golf courses use. A lot of the numbers from 18 months ago were off by over 1000x. Newer data centers use closed-loop systems or recycled water. Should be required by every town approving a data center project. On taxes: looking only at sales-tax exemptions, as Ronan Farrow did, is the wrong way to evaluate this. Data centers pay significant property taxes. Loudoun County, which is the wealthiest county in America, now collects on the order of $1 billion a year from data centers. In Quincy, WA, data centers are more than half the property-tax roll. Over time, property taxes can go to zero while government spending increases in these towns. On jobs: this has been unambiguously awesome for blue collar Americans. Demand for electricians, plumbers, welders, HVAC techs, and contractors has gone vertical, and it is not a one-time construction job. These buildings get upgraded and expanded over time. That is why the building trades are fighting for them, and why some unions are now treating opposition to data centers as a reason not to endorse politicians. On power: the original fear was that households would pay for the incremental electricity demand in the form of higher prices. That is why the ratepayer-protection deals and the new large-load tariffs exist. The right structure is: the data center brings or pays for new generation and signs a contract long enough that existing customers are protected. Where that is happening, utilities are cutting or freezing residential rates and saying so on the record. Where it is not, people are right to object. Electricity prices are going down *today* in a number of large states because of data centers. 
On the environment: data centers overwhelming use natural gas today, which is the cleanest power source outside of nuclear, solar and wind. And the companies that are building the data centers are committed to carbon neutrality such that an equivalent amount of solar will likely be built. Maybe more importantly, the data centers need batteries to function effectively and these batteries can also sell energy back into the grid (which recently prevented blackouts in Texas). Over time, data centers will run on solar plus batteries. On the towns: Poverty in Quincy, WA fell from 29% to 6%. Data center taxes paid for a new high school, a hospital, a library, police and fire stations. This is happening in many left for dead former mill and farm towns that had no other bidder for the land. Data centers are actually reindustrializing parts of America and creating the kind of working-class jobs both parties have spent decades claiming to support. That should not be a partisan issue. Data centers can and should be awesome for America and they increasingly, overwhelmingly are. Supporting the outsourcing of data centers to China will likely age just as well as support for the outsourcing of high quality, blue collar manufacturing jobs to China has aged. When the facts change, I change my mind. I hope that reasonable people who had good faith reasons to oppose data centers at least consider updating their beliefs given the change in the facts over the last 18 months. This really matters for America. I will say I also think the idea of making data centers beautiful is a good one that has yet to be implemented. Data centers should be just as beautiful as Grand Central Station. We can learn a lot from the railroad buildout. Neoclassical revival ftw. Might write up open-weight AI tomorrow as this is equally essential to America.
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If a superintelligence were as misaligned as the AIs in the HF incident, probably it would take over the world. Imo superintelligence is plausible within 1-2 years. Govts don't realize the scale of the problem. Companies are racing at close to full speed. This is not a drill.
New post: going into our investigation of the HF attack (before Black Hat), I was very wrong about what basically happened. This incident was far more serious than I expected, and far more serious than previous documented misalignment incidents. planned-obsolescence.org/p/t…
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It’s AI or bust.
Total US interest is now $1.4 trillion. It will surpass Social Security as the largest US government outlay ($1.6 trillion per year) by 2028
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