Trade volatility, fundamental & secular themes & bank gains w/ RE. Geopol Junkie, MSc Quant Fin, Iraq & Afg Vet. PSU Alum Violist/Bass Guitarist/LAXer. No Moss
No longer in Amman, Jordan
Joined March 2011
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The best part about this election is watching the IYI class self-implode. Oligarchy with curated agitprop is done forever.
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John Hunyadi 王 retweeted
TOP 35 WEEKLY FRAUD ANNOUNCEMENTS
October 26 - 30, 2026
1. Operation Ghostbusters: Five defendants charged in a “ghost student” scheme using stolen identities to obtain federal student aid; more than $32 million in related losses was identified and over $750,000 in crypto from Kenya was seized.
2. Minnesota Fraud: Seven defendants charged with health care fraud or benefits fraud in schemes involving over $29M in newly discovered fraud.
3. A doctor in California was sentenced to 15 years for fraudulently billing Medicare more than $45 million for medically unnecessary or nonexistent Botox injections; over $16 million was forfeited.
4. A defendant in Minnesota was sentenced to 360 months for his role in the $250 million Feeding Our Future scheme after facilitating more than $44 million in fraudulent federal child-nutrition proceeds.
5. A defendant in Minnesota was sentenced to 78 months and fined $40,000 for his role in attempting to bribe a juror with $200,000 cash during the defendant's fraud trial.
6. Six tax preparers were indicted for allegedly filing more than 9,000 fraudulent returns seeking over $177 million in refunds, approximately $81 million of which was issued.
7. An Indian national pleaded guilty to using stolen Medicare identities to submit $227 million in claims for undelivered COVID-19 test kits; Medicare paid approximately $136 million.
8. Two supervisors of a Ghana-based romance-scam and business-email-compromise organization pleaded guilty in a conspiracy that stole and laundered more than $100 million from dozens of victims.
9. Guilty pleas in $65 million multinational fraud and money-laundering operation that targeted thousands of elderly victims; 25 defendants have been charged.
10. A safety inspector received 30 months in prison for fabricating hundreds of gas-pipeline tests, causing more than $64 million in remediation costs and creating risks of leaks and explosions.
11. A mental-health provider’s co-owner was arrested and charged with submitting more than $49 million in allegedly fraudulent Medicaid claims for crisis services.
12. A coordinated pandemic-fraud initiative announced criminal actions involving approximately $26.9 million in alleged SBA losses, alongside civil recoveries, as part of a broader $34 million enforcement effort.
13. Six Africa-based defendants were charged in fraudulent cryptocurrency and NFT investment schemes linked to transnational criminal organizations; related enforcement restrained more than $1 billion in cryptocurrency.
14. Three defendants received prison terms of 84, 30, and 24 months for a government-imposter scheme that stole more than $10 million from over 50 victims in 19 states.
15. A personal assistant was sentenced to 48 months for stealing nearly $10 million from elderly employers and was ordered to forfeit $9.6 million.
16. Three defendants pleaded guilty to operating international romance scams that caused mostly older victims in 25 states and three countries to lose more than $9 million.
17. A former accountant was sentenced to 63 months for stealing more than $8.2 million through bogus accessory-dwelling-unit investments and was ordered to pay restitution and forfeiture.
18. A durable-medical-equipment operator was convicted at trial in an $8.6 million Medicare scheme involving forged prescriptions and unwanted or medically unnecessary orthotic braces.
19. A business owner pleaded guilty to laundering money after embezzling more than $7.8 million from a federally funded rural broadband project and transferring proceeds into cryptocurrency accounts.
20. A man was sentenced to five years for using stolen identities belonging to more than 150 people to obtain approximately $2.8 million in pandemic unemployment benefits.
21. A money launderer was sentenced to eight years and ordered to pay approximately $2.4 million for facilitating tech-support and government-imposter scams targeting elderly victims.
22. A former procurement official pleaded guilty to bribery and honest-services wire fraud for steering contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollars in exchange for nearly $183,000 in payments to a relative.
23. A fugitive charged with laundering millions from romance, sweepstakes, rental, and shipping scams targeting elderly victims was arrested while reentering the United States and ordered detained.
24. A Jamaican national was extradited to face a 29-count indictment alleging lottery fraud and money laundering involving victims told to prepay taxes and fees for fictitious prizes.
25. An accountant was sentenced to 41 months for bank fraud and money laundering after fraudulently obtaining nearly $1 million in pandemic loans and laundering $150,000 in drug proceeds.
26. A business owner pleaded guilty to fraudulently receiving more than $890,000 through PPP and EIDL applications after seeking over $1.2 million and using proceeds for personal expenses, stocks, and cryptocurrency.
27. A woman pleaded guilty to wire fraud and money laundering after fraudulently obtaining more than $618,000 in PPP and EIDL funds through fabricated tax records and fictitious employment data.
28. Eleven defendants were indicted in a 21-count conspiracy alleging more than $400,000 in fraudulent PPP loans obtained with false tax forms and inflated or nonexistent business income.
29. A fraudulent-document marketplace operator was sentenced to 27 months and ordered to pay $386k after fake records supplied through his websites supported more than $380,000 in fraudulent pandemic loans.
30. A pharmacist was sentenced to 90 months for illegally dispensing at least 335,351 high-dose oxycodone pills to customers without a medical need, often at approximately 10 times the typical price.
31. Two defendants pleaded guilty to using 23 fraudulent applications and fake leases to steal more than $187,000 from a pandemic emergency-rental-assistance program.
32. A community support worker was indicted on 38 fraud and theft counts for allegedly billing over $109,000 for Medicaid services that were not provided.
33. A forged-check scheme leader received five years in prison, a co-defendant received 27 months, and eight participants were ordered to pay combined restitution of $115,936.05.
34. The final defendant in an interstate bank-fraud and identity-theft conspiracy was sentenced to 42 months for a scheme involving $91,300 in loss.
35. A woman was sentenced to 24 months and ordered to pay $150,590 for passing a stolen and falsely endorsed U.S. Treasury check.
All in support of @POTUS and @VP's Task Force to Eliminate Fraud (@WHFraudTF).
John Hunyadi 王 retweeted
I've been pointing out since the early 2010s that Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, and Gabriel Zucman have a bad habit of biasing their data construction to fit their politics.
Whenever they make a suspect call in how to handle stats, it ends up showing that inequality is on the rise. They almost never go in the other direction. The errors are non-random and almost invariably reinforce their political claims about rising income and wealth concentration since 1980.
Piketty did this throughout his book Capital in the 21st Century.
Piketty and Saez did this throughout their famous 2003 paper on inequality in the US.
Piketty, Saez, and Zucman Saez and Zucman did this in their Distributional National Accounts paper that Auten and Splinter dissected.
Saez and Zucman did this in their 2019 book on tax incidence and inequality.
Saez and Zucman did this in their flurry of "studies" and white papers to support Elizabeth Warren's wealth tax proposal, California Prop 40, a new wealth tax in France, and dozens of other similar examples.
A new AI report (linked below) audited 138 papers by Saez and Zucman. It found thousands of errors, 194 of which were serious. A whopping 97% of the serious errors went in the same direction: they showed inequality rising faster or made it higher.
But there's a bigger scandal at play here. Despite these clear biases, Piketty, Saez, and Zucman have enjoyed a stream of praise and prestige within the economics profession. They get expedited and friendly reviews in top econ journals even though a more serious peer review should have caught many of these errors (the Quarterly Journal of Economics is a recurring offender in this regard). Journals regularly give them a pass after the errors in their old work come to light - they're never expected to correct any of it, and just keep on using it as if nothing changed. Their non-peer reviewed data claims are also treated as gospel by major media outlets such as the New York Times and the Washington Post. And they get showered with prizes - Saez and Zucman are both Clark Medal winners from the AEA, and Zucman got his prize in 2023 after evidence of major data shenanigans in his work came to light in 2019.
Until now, those of us who have been trying to correct the record have had to wade through the PSZ trio's cluttered, disorganized, and often non-transparent replication packages (almost all of which are convoluted piles of Excel spreadsheets) to find the problems. I did a line-by-line replication of Piketty and Saez's entire 2003 US income inequality series to use one example, and found it was riddled with errors - almost every single one of which biased their results in favor of their political story.
We had the means to catch this stuff as it was happening, but the economics profession failed to do its job. And it failed precisely because its elite ranks wanted to believe the Piketty-Saez-Zucman story for political reasons.
John Hunyadi 王 retweeted
I have conducted an audit of Anthropic's finances.
What I have found is so shocking that I am calling for a Congressional investigation.
Anthropic is not just seeking regulatory capture.
It has built a regulatory capture machine that cannot be turned off.
Structural financial incentives make it impossible for Anthropic -- I call it the Anthropic Network -- to turn off its own AI doom cycle.
It starts with METR.
Dario Amodei proposes "third-party evaluators" to assess the risk of Anthropic's models.
He proposes METR for this purpose.
But METR is financially dependent on the Anthropic's success -- specifically, on the explosive growth of more than $7 billion dollars in Anthropic stock.
Dustin Moskovitz invested this stock into Good Ventures Foundation, where it represents the majority of that organization's portfolio.
And GVF is the overwhelming funder of the entire Anthropic Network ecosystem.
This stock was worth $500 million early last year.
It is worth more than $7.7 billion just ~16 months later.
METR -- and all of those building a career its parent organizations -- cannot afford to disrupt that growth.
Because if Anthropic goes under, many of the organizations that fund METR go under as well.
But if Anthropic succeeds, METR and its parent organizations become more richly financed to regulate AI -- something those at METR want very much.
The "third-party evaluator" is not "third-party" at all.
The evaluator is on Anthropic's payroll.
If this were the end of it, that's bad.
But that isn't all.
The same organizations that fund METR also fund the many organizations, such as the Tarbell Center, that promote AI Doom.
The Tarbell Center publishes AI Doom articles in The Verge, Science, LA Times, The Dispatch, TIME, and others.
They are selling the problem, and then selling the solution to the problem -- from the same money pile: Anthropic's.
All of these organizations are financially dependent on the same exploding $7 billion money pile.
As Anthropic grows more and more powerful, its AI Doom Machine grows better and better financed -- louder and louder.
Meanwhile, the regulatory regime seeded in METR grows larger to solve the increasingly loud -- now hysterical -- problem of AI Doom that the Anthropic Network itself created.
From this standpoint, as Anthropic becomes more powerful, AI might be getting scarier, sure -- but the positive feedback loop also becomes more deafening -- independent of objective facts.
This itself is an objective fact.
The deafening AI Doom is part of an business model, that, as it expands, so too does the AI Doom messaging -- there is simply more money to do it.
But the problem also goes in the other direction:
If Anthropic dies, the Regulatory Regime and the AI Doom Machine are crippled or die.
Neither METR nor Tarbell nor the other organizations in the Anthropic Network can allow that to happen.
Hence, neither METR or the AI Doom Machine can be trusted to provide independent assessments of Anthropic's models or AI more broadly.
They simply are not organizations independent of Anthropic.
And Anthropic cannot detach itself from METR or Tarbell or countless other safety orgs (not shown here), either, because they drive hype for the models and the possibility of eventual regulatory capture, and Anthropic will not give that up willingly.
What's more, the people at all of these organizations are all the same ecosystem, the same community. They just shuffle between organizations.
The Anthropic Network is therefore, so long as it is successful, locked into a self-amplifying feedback loop inside an ideological monoculture.
And that feedback loop is winning.
That's what Jacob Coxon is.
China is keeping messaging tight. That is why optimism for AI is so high in China.
America has Anthropic: a massive company pushing anti-AI propaganda at a state level.
Anthropic will either create hysteria until American AI slows down and China wins, or it will create fractures throughout American society with severe political consequences.
Ironically, because of the structural financial incentives underpinning the Anthropic Network, it has become the same kind of self-amplifying virus that it fantasizes AI to become in the future -- while hiding its tracks just as carefully.
It is the mirror of the same AI virus that it hypothesizes to consume America.
Anthropic's business model, models itself after the very thing it claims to fear.
Except Anthropic's ideology infects humans, not computers.
Congress must investigate.
Evidence and Github in next post.
Then some supplementary figures.
John Hunyadi 王 retweeted
The podcast world just lost a legend, one of the two best podcasters in the universe:
John C. Dvorak (@THErealDVORAK) has passed away.
Please pray for his family, @AdamCurry (practically family), and closest friends.
John Hunyadi 王 retweeted
For some, last week felt like the beginning of an AI bubble unwind.
For me, it looked like the end of the agentic infrastructure fireworks show.
The buildout is not over.
But the easy phase where every chip, memory, power, and infrastructure name worked is probably over.
Now the rotation shifts to the next layer of Jensen Huang’s five-layer cake:
Applications.
That is where ROI shows up.
That is where specialized AI models matter.
And that is why Eli Lilly may be one of the most important AI stories in the market.
GLP-1 cash flow.
Proprietary data.
LillyPod.
TuneLab
Specialized AI.
Peptides=API Keys
Human software.
This week’s video is about why this is rotation, not a bear market and why the next phase of AI may look very different from the last one.
Watch here:youtu.be/6GJGunJwN64
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John Hunyadi 王 retweeted
Stay in May for added pay
Sell the high in mid-July
By rule of thumb, stocks roll over
Toward a low in mid-October
–Max Adage
John Hunyadi 王 retweeted
JUST IN: Reporter Catherine Herridge testifies that CBS News locked her out of the building and seized all her files, says she was working with sources to "expose government corruption."
Nothing at all going on here, folks.
"CBS News’ decision to seize my reporting records crossed a red line that I believe should never be crossed by any media organization."
"Multiple sources said they were concerned that by working with me to expose government corruption and misconduct they would be identified and exposed."
"CBS News locked me out of the building and seized hundreds of pages of my reporting files, including confidential source information."
John Hunyadi 王 retweeted
🥐 Crumbs ahead of OpEx
@jam_croissant joins @OJRenick to discuss the latest trends he sees developing in the options market: xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1yoKMZXgW…
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🆓 Giveaway 🆓
I'm going to give away ONE free year membership to whoever guesses next week's closing print. Closest to the pin at 4PM EST next Friday in $ES
Rules: comment your guess on this post, retweet, and you must be following me. Good luck!
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John Hunyadi 王 retweeted
Twitter Reinstates Zerohedge After Admitting It Made An "Error" zerohedge.com/markets/twitte…
John Hunyadi 王 retweeted
Feels like everyone wants to fade $SPX 3K into month-end.