39 ballistic missiles in a single night, missing US early warnings, and Starlink restrictions. Coincidence or mounting pressure on Ukraine? On the night of October 14, Russia attacked Ukraine with 39 missiles flying on ballistic trajectories and 128 drones. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, only four missiles were intercepted. Some of the others failed to reach their targets. The 39 missiles represent the highest number recorded in our verified sample of attacks over the past three months. However, Russia had already been increasing its use of ballistic missiles over the summer. In August, the Ukrainian Air Force reported approximately 50 ballistic missiles launched in a single week. It would therefore be misleading to attribute Russia's current tactics solely to recent developments in relations between Kyiv and Washington. But another troubling pattern is emerging. Just yesterday, we cautioned against jumping to conclusions about a possible suspension of US intelligence sharing, particularly early warnings of Russian missile launches. There was no independent confirmation of such a decision. In fact, US officials publicly insisted that intelligence sharing was continuing. Yet President Zelenskyy has now explicitly stated that Ukraine failed to receive advance warnings from its partners about ballistic missile strikes on Kyiv on two consecutive occasions. Meanwhile, reports have emerged that SpaceX has introduced restrictions affecting Starlink terminals operating at speeds above 160 km/h (100 mph). According to Ukrainian military personnel, these restrictions have already disrupted combat missions involving drones. Each of these developments could have a technical explanation when considered separately. Taken together, however, they raise a serious question: Has Washington begun intensifying pressure on Ukraine behind the scenes by exploiting its dependence on critical American technologies? This is particularly concerning amid reports that Trump has demanded an end to Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries. For now, Ukraine appears to be refraining from such strikes, while simultaneously facing restrictions that affect its own defensive capabilities. This deserves a public explanation from Ukraine's partners. Could there be undisclosed agreements between Washington and Moscow? The timing of diplomatic pressure, failures in early warning, and restrictions on satellite communications warrants thorough international scrutiny and investigation. Because if a country that provided Ukraine with security assurances is using technological dependence as a means of coercion while Russia continues its massive attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, it raises a fundamental question about the value of international security commitments. And that is yet another reason to remember the Budapest Memorandum. #Ukraine #Starlink #Trump #Putin