the bull case: Look, I am a known optimist. So it wont surprise everyone to hear I think things are going to be awesome. Here is my perspective: if you are still in business today, you survived at least 6 great crises in the past 6 years. you survived covid, you survived 2 painful presidential elections; you survived a WORSE gas crisis because of the ukraine conflict; you survived inflation; you survived interest rates rising faster than they ever have, you survived a banking crisis (SVB) if you are in business today, you are resilient are things great today? depends where you look. housing hasnt imploded. unemployment is steady. the largest, most important companies in human history are still growing and shipping new products there is weakness for sure- gas prices are the obvious one. They are the front line on a vibes-secion. the reason gas prices matter so much is because it is a commodity with no substitute good. if banana prices go up, you might eat more oranges. But you have to drive to work every day. if gas is $3 or $8 a gallon, doesnt matter, you have to drive. and I wish gas prices were lower. it is the most direct way to put more spending power back into the average amercians hands. but look at the chart- inflation-adjusted, it is a dollar cheaper than the ukraine war peak, and $2 cheaper than in 2008 the economy is more diversified, directly because of the ukraine war, so even with the Iran war dragging on, the impact has been less I'll tell you, I see the strength in my sales data. this is NOTHING like 2022. 2022 had runaway inflation. a real energy shock. no great new products or investments happening. in contrast- people are spending. people are employed. stock market is at all time highs (I think this plays a factor) the reality- it is an election year. both sides are in full-on doomer mode, trying to push a narrative. from my seat, as the ceo of a mid-size discretionary goods company: It is the greatest time to be building all decade.