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Michael Hayes (@itsAdam) profile picture

Michael Hayes

@itsAdam

Exploring businesses, valuations & market cycles. Sharing perspectives, asking better questions.

 New York, NY
Joined October 2008
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Photo by Michael Hayes (@itsAdam)Photo by Michael Hayes (@itsAdam)Photo by Michael Hayes (@itsAdam)Photo by Michael Hayes (@itsAdam)Photo by Michael Hayes (@itsAdam)Photo by Michael Hayes (@itsAdam)Photo by Michael Hayes (@itsAdam)Photo by Michael Hayes (@itsAdam)Photo by Michael Hayes (@itsAdam)Photo by Michael Hayes (@itsAdam)
$KDK's 75-truck deal, $PRCH Q3 sales +13%, $GKOS Q3 sales +58% set up a strong watchlist. Next cash closes >1.740 / 18.75 / 213.50 put upside in play. Risk below 1.360 / 18.12 / 191.62, respectively. AH, non-live.
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$BHC's Q3 sales +10% and guidance raise stand out. $LITE reports Nov 5; $FTCI Nov 4. Next cash closes >7.88 / 1037.24 / 1.360 put more upside in play. Risk below 6.97 / 921.00 / 1.311, respectively. AH, non-live.
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$AXGN Q3 revenue +26.2% YoY. Revised Oct28 cash close $49.25 (+31.47% vs Oct27), above $49.06. If the next cash close holds >$49.06, $51.00 stays in play. A close <$48.39 invalidates. Cash-close record only; no after-hours gain claimed.
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$MANH cloud revenue +28% YoY; $PPG sales +7%; $ULBI $16 cash deal pending and can fail. Like Oct28 cash closes >$242.63/$120.71/$15.67; then $254.00/$121.27/$16.00†. Risk: closes <$237.07/$114.25/$15.60. †Deal price.
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$VRT/$AXGN/$PUMP: Q3 sales +61% YoY/+26.2% YoY/+16% QoQ. Like Oct28 cash closes >$238.55/$49.06/$7.89; then $242.82/$50/$8.18. Risk: closes <$234.80/$48.39/$7.54. Daily-close confirmation still needed.
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$FLEX/$GEHC/$GRMN PM watch: GAAP EPS $0.70/$1.36/$2.80. Like Oct28 cash closes >$97.15/$75.65/$295.01; then $98.62/$78.28/$297.79. Risk: closes <$90.41/$72.30/$288.84. $GEHC $78.28 is a range projection; PM isn't cash confirmation.
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AH $ULBI/$ICLR/$AMD: $ULBI $16 cash deal pending; $ICLR adj EPS $2.66; $AMD Helios at Meta in testing. Like Oct28 cash closes >$15.75/$203.91/$568.62; next $16/$210/$591.88. Risk: closes <$15.53/$190.56/$556.79 or deal breaks. $15.75/$210: watches.
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AH $MANH/$PPG/$UCTT. $MANH cloud +28%; fresh catalysts unverified for the other two. Like Oct28 cash closes >$260.00/$125.00/$59.87; next $270.00/$130.00/$62.82. Risk: closes <$242.63/$114.25/$55.20. Round watches: $260/$270/$125/$130.
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$AMD/$NVDA/$AVGO: Oct27 Meta / Oct27 OCI / Oct26 AI financing. Like cash closes >$568.62/$218.88/$344.70; next $591.88/$222.19/$354.25. Risk: cash closes <$556.79/$216.00/$341.10. All below provisional SMA20; outlooks are forecasts.
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Michael Hayes retweeted
Heisenberg (@Mr_Derivatives) profile picture
Heisenberg
@Mr_DerivativesOct 27
In the last 36 months, the $SPX has had only 3 months where it dropped greater than -2.50% at the end of the month. April 2024 March 2025 March 2026 So for 2027, expect another bigly down month come Mar/April? I mean why not right?
Heisenberg (@Mr_Derivatives) profile pictureHeisenberg
@Mr_DerivativesOct 27
Stat time: In the last 36 months the $SPX has only had 3 Months where it closed lower than -2.50%. Just 3.
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$NVDA/$AVGO/$AMZN: Oct27 OCI availability / Oct26 AI financing / Oct29 earnings. Like cash closes >$218.88/$344.70/$255.54; next $222.19/$354.25/$258.41. Risk: cash closes <$217.75/$341.10/$250.79. All below provisional SMA20.
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$AMD/$MU/$TSLA: Oct27 Meta testing / Oct20 Indium funding / Oct21 results. Like cash closes >$568.62/$931.65/$410.00; next $591.88/$949.42/$420.00. Risk: cash closes <$556.79/$915.75/$397.27. SMAs provisional.
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$NVDA/$AVGO/$AMZN: Oct21 DSX / Oct26 AI financing / Oct29 earnings. Like cash closes >$218.88/$341.10/$251.83; next $222.19/$344.70/$255.54. Risk: cash closes <$216.00/$332.12/$250.79. All below provisional SMA20.
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$TSLA/$INTC/$TSM RTH: Oct21 results / Oct29 earnings / Oct15 earnings. Like cash closes >$400.00/$94.39/$435.16; next $410.00/$95.39/$440.39. Risk: cash closes <$397.27/$92.09/$428.85. SMAs provisional.
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$NVDA/$AMD/$AVGO PM: Oct21 DSX / Oct20 PyTorch plans / Oct26 AI financing. Bullish on cash closes >$218.88/$548.11/$341.10; next $222.19/$556.79/$344.70. Risk: cash closes <$213.85/$523.92/$332.12. All below SMA20.
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$INTC/$TSM/$TSLA PM watch: Oct20 PyTorch plans / Oct15 earnings / Oct21 results. Like cash closes >$92.09/$428.85/$397.27; next $94.39/$435.16/$400.00. Risk: cash closes <$89.19/$421.31/$388.86. $INTC/$TSM below SMA20.
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Watching $AMZN/$NVDA/$MU AH: Oct29 earnings / Oct21 DSX / Oct20 Indium. Like the rebound on cash closes >$250.79/$218.88/$928.45; next $255.60/$222.19/$953.60. Risk: cash closes <$248.00/$213.85/$891.89. All below SMA20.
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$TSLA/$AVGO/$CRWD: Oct21 results/AI-security news are context, not today's catalyst. Need cash closes > $397.27/$339.24/$268.08 for $400.00/$341.10/$272.50. Bull case fails on cash closes < $388.86/$330.82/$257.91. $AVGO below SMA20.
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$INTC/$MU/$AMD on watch. Oct20 x86 PyTorch plan is context, not a fresh catalyst. Need cash closes > $92.96/$928.45/$548.11 for $95.39/$953.60/$556.79. Bull case fails on cash closes < $86.96/$891.89/$523.92. All below SMA20.
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$GE/$RTX/$LMT: $LMT's Oct 22 earnings keep aerospace on watch. Cash closes > $287.98/$197.00/$636.88 open $293.54/$197.21/$640.00. Cash closes < $285.64/$196.15/$609.32 void the setup. $GE below both provisional MAs.
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