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Ark Invest on a potenial Tesla-SpaceX merger:
"A SpaceX-Tesla merger could take place within the next five years. Tesla’s highly cash-generative robotaxi network could help fund SpaceX’s ambitious plans for orbital data centers, and at the same time SpaceX’s compute-intensive frontier AI models could serve as the planning layer for Optimus deployments. Working together on the Terafab project, both companies could alleviate chip constraints. Combined, we estimate that SpaceX and Tesla could generate $3.8 trillion in revenue and $2.7 trillion in EBIT15 by 2031, with SpaceX contributing roughly 62% and 69%, respectively."
ARK Invest has just released their new Tesla valuation model, projecting @Tesla could reach a $17.5 trillion valuation by 2031, and upwards of $20.4 trillion in a bull case.
ARK's 2031 Tesla base case: $4,400/share
• ~1M Optimus robots sold externally, generating ~$212B in revenue
• Robotaxi is ~80% of Tesla's enterprise value (down from ~90% in ARK's 2029 model)
• ~8.1M robotaxis deployed, with ~$753B in ride-hail revenue
• Total revenue of ~$1.45T and EBITDA of ~$902B
• Market cap of ~$17.5T
• Tesla's AI infrastructure spend grows from ~$7B to $225B cumulatively
ARK's 2031 Tesla bull case: $5,000/share
• EV revenue (excluding credits): $355B
• Robotaxis: 10M vehicles and $899B in ride-hail revenue
• Energy storage: 2,693 GWh deployed and $193B in revenue
• Optimus: 1.2M robots sold externally and $254B in revenue
• Total revenue: $1.62T
• EBITDA: $1.045T, a 65% margin, with a 72% gross margin
• Market cap: $20.4T
ARK's model does not assume SpaceX and Tesla merge, but they estimate combined SpaceX and Tesla could generate $3.8T in revenue by 2031, with SpaceX contributing ~62%.
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The registered fleet of Tesla Robotaxis in Texas is now 66% of the size of Waymo’s registered fleet
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1/ We’ve updated our Tesla model. Robotaxi still comprises the majority of value over the next 5 years, though Optimus sales inflect more here than previously modeled. Tesla is early in scaling robotaxi, but its vertical integration and cost advantages could make it first to widespread service.
What could @Tesla be worth in 2031? ARK’s long-awaited valuation just dropped.
ark-invest.com/articles/valu…
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ARK Invest has just released their new Tesla valuation model, projecting @Tesla could reach a $17.5 trillion valuation by 2031, and upwards of $20.4 trillion in a bull case.
ARK's 2031 Tesla base case: $4,400/share
• ~1M Optimus robots sold externally, generating ~$212B in revenue
• Robotaxi is ~80% of Tesla's enterprise value (down from ~90% in ARK's 2029 model)
• ~8.1M robotaxis deployed, with ~$753B in ride-hail revenue
• Total revenue of ~$1.45T and EBITDA of ~$902B
• Market cap of ~$17.5T
• Tesla's AI infrastructure spend grows from ~$7B to $225B cumulatively
ARK's 2031 Tesla bull case: $5,000/share
• EV revenue (excluding credits): $355B
• Robotaxis: 10M vehicles and $899B in ride-hail revenue
• Energy storage: 2,693 GWh deployed and $193B in revenue
• Optimus: 1.2M robots sold externally and $254B in revenue
• Total revenue: $1.62T
• EBITDA: $1.045T, a 65% margin, with a 72% gross margin
• Market cap: $20.4T
ARK's model does not assume SpaceX and Tesla merge, but they estimate combined SpaceX and Tesla could generate $3.8T in revenue by 2031, with SpaceX contributing ~62%.
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I am rooting against Elon Musk because I hate America's children and don't want them to have a good life
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"Electricity goes out, I know my family's safe, and that means a lot to me"
Powerwall owner in Hawaii explains how Storm Watch mode automatically charges up your Powerwall before the storm hits
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A BIG THANK YOU to our legendary friend, @ElonMusk, for his incredible generosity in giving SpaceX Stock to millions of American children through TRUMP ACCOUNTS! This is exactly what was envisioned when we created TRUMP ACCOUNTS — Bringing together the GREAT PRIVATE SECTOR, Elon and so many more, to invest in our children, by far our greatest and most important asset, and give every American Child a piece of the American Dream. Thank you Elon! President DONALD J. TRUMP
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"A BIG THANK YOU to our legendary friend, @elonmusk, for his incredible generosity in giving SpaceX Stock to millions of American children through TRUMP ACCOUNTS! This is exactly what was envisioned when we created TRUMP ACCOUNTS" - President Donald J. Trump 🇺🇸
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This is a game changer for ALL children with @TrumpAccounts.
Thank you, @elonmusk, for your incredible generosity and investment in America’s youth. 🇺🇸
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Here are the top 7 voted for questions by retail investors for @Tesla's Q3 earnings call this Wednesday:
1) How does the Cybercab fleet scale past Austin, and what’s the regulatory path outside Texas given NHTSA’s open safety review?
2) When can we anticipate FSD unsupervised in customer cars?
3) When will the CyberCab be available for customer purchase/ownership?
4) What’s the unit economics per paid robotaxi mile, and how does it compare to the thirty-cent target?
5) What’s the cost per Optimus unit, and what does the first paying customer look like?
6) When do you anticipate Optimus will begin generating revenue?
7) Tesla has acknowledged that HW3 vehicles cannot support unsupervised FSD. When will owners know whether they can upgrade their hardware for free, and when will Tesla provide a clear plan?
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If anyone is having issues verifying shares on our retail platform, please reach out to [email protected] so we can troubleshoot. Providing the error message along with the email attached to your account will expedite investigation. Thanks for your patience and support!
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I believe Tesla Robotaxis and Optimus will generate unbelievable returns for shareholders over the next decade
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Uber is so fucking shady.
The so called “People’s First Transportation Alliance” is actually funded by Uber. A more accurate name would have been the Uber First Transportation Alliance.
They are hiding the fact that they’re funding this anti-autonomy group, and listed a bunch of “founding members” of the group that had no clue their names were being used!
They just organized a protest against a bill that would bring autonomous driving to DC in 2028, demanding human drivers be required well past then. DC is such a critical city for autonomy, because we need congress to be able to try the technology for themselves. The fact that they can’t is holding federal autonomy legislation back.
Fuck Uber and everyone involved in this group. They want people to die so they can make money continuing to exploit their drivers.
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It sounds like a conspiracy theory, but "California gas is expensive because of a failed high-speed rail project" is 100% real.
Almost half of ALL GAS TAXES go to funding the high speed rail project that hasn't delivered a single functional piece of rail in the last 11 years.
Great explanation of why California gas prices are higher than in other states, in the @sfchronicle of all places.
26¢/gallon goes to "cap-and-invest" which funds high-speed rail.
sfchronicle.com/california/a…
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This is how WSJ described the Hummer EV, a 9000+ lb vehicle that is outsold >2,000% by the Tesla Y
Unveiling the Roadster with out-of-this-world technology reiterated that Musk has given up designing cars for regular people to drive. on.wsj.com/3UvugrS
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