tip: whenever anthropic publishes something that sounds delusional to many, price in half of it becoming reality within 6-12 months. then think about how you can be part of that world, copium and denial shouldnt be in our ally.
if you are wondering how i would price this in, i would probably dig more do some experiments to confirm their claims and start building incident response and threat monitoring teams/startups for the crazy world they talking about
definitely not in 2–3 months, but consider this:
1. the cost-capability pareto frontier keeps improving. models are getting cheaper and more efficient. the latest haiku seems to be as good as opus 4.6(?)
2. put models scheming aside, i dont buy that yet. but what if some random guy who took down fridges in a French supermarket for no gains decides to abliterate an open weight model capable of exploiting low hanging 0-days and n-days, and post trains it to self-replicate?
3. also consider this, in the hugging face incident, there was no incentive for the model to exfiltrate or replicate itself. but what if a slightly misaligned model is given a task where self replication becomes a step toward solving it?
if you consider these possibilities, the idea doesn't look that far-fetched.
anthropic.com/research/self-…
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