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Jeremy Howard@jeremyphoward18 Nov 2023
Australia
AustraliaConnected via WebAccount-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
OK everyone's asking me for my take on the OpenAI stuff, so here it is. I have a strong feeling about what's going on, but no internal info so this is just me talking.
The first point to make is that the Dev Day was (IMO) an absolute embarrassment.
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My Highest Likelihood Explanation on Altman's Departure:
Erosion of senior leadership experience on the OpenAI Board of Directors created a situation where factionalism over the proposed use of a recent breakthrough led to a political takeover.
Over the last few years, board of directors at OpenAI lost a lot of its senior oversight due to conflicts of interest - Elon Musk, Reid Hoffman, Will Hurd. The only person left with significant leadership experience is Adam D'Angelo.
After Will Hurd left, it was a split vote, 3v3:
The likely factions were Ilya, Sam, Greg vs Adam, Tasha, Helen.
Firing Sam was politics.
It was not over performance, strategic leadership, or vision for the company. Rather, there was contention over the use of a breakthrough that drove a vote between safetyism and deployment speed.
Why this was Factionalism - Sudden Ousting
If this was planned, Sam would not be representing OpenAI at APEC events all week, OpenAI DevDay two weeks ago. If Microsoft knew or was involved, Satya Nadella would not have been on-stage with Sam at Dev Day.
Microsoft claims they didn't have advance knowledge of this - they claim they knew about it one minute in advance. There clearly was not internal alignment on this decision either - @gdb just quit over this.
What was the wedge issue? Just recently at APEC Sam announced he had witnessed the frontier of knowledge being pushed back four times in his experience at OpenAI, and the last time was recently - a couple weeks ago.
Likely Greg and Sam wanted to build and deploy it in earnest, and Ilya didn't. Ilya had become lead of the "Superintelligence Alignment" division earlier this year. I would bet Ilya was the vote that broke the stalemate and led to the departure.
Sam was kicked out over concerns he would move AI forward too fast by deploying a recent breakthrough.
It's unlikely departure was related to anything regarding operations, cash burn, partnership-making ability, and so forth - OpenAI has blank-check status for ability to raise, they have huge cashflow, only a few hundred staff, are beyond doubt.
Most importantly, the suddenness of the departure, lack of communication to Microsoft, and resignation of Greg Brockman all point to this being a sudden move by a board faction.
Likely, the board felt that OpenAI was completely setup - in partnerships, funding, team, and direction, they could afford to push Sam out to regain control of of the direction and pace of roll-out of AI tools without threatening the security of OpenAI.
Whatever the proximate justification behind the lack of being 'candid' - this is likely ultimately a split between safetyism and acceleration.
Explanations that should be discarded
Sam is extremely successful and intelligent, but also has a bulletproof reputation as an upstanding, intentional and pro-social person. He's also a billionaire several times over.
The language used in the OpenAI disclosure, as well as comments by Eric Schmidt, seem to all point that this was a disagreement over intentions behind the use of AI tools, rather than an over-reach of power, monetary conflict of interest, or a personal scandal.
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One final thought:
Fact-checks after the fact are inherently limited. “A lie is halfway round the world before the truth has got its boots on”.
Forensic, investigative, truth-seeking work should be a proactive part of breaking news coverage, not a reactive add-on afterwards.
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Some possible outcomes of yesterday's events:
1. In Wagner PMC, a split has reportedly started between those who felt used and those who remained loyal to Prigozhin after the failed rebellion.
2. Combat pilots reportedly quit Wagner PMC due to their disagreement with the way planes and helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces were destroyed yesterday.
3. A vertical of power has collapsed.
No one in Russia can feel safe anymore. Neither officials, nor oligarchs, nor FSB officers who used to think they were the rulers of life. Putin stopped holding a monopoly on violence in Russia yesterday. It was proven that factions with more weapons and determination decide everything.
4. Russia might be facing a bloody war, not a civil war, but a war of clans, armed groups and private armies: Chechens, Prigozhin's supporters, armed mercenaries, who will separate from Prigozhin or other PMCs and be hired by local clans for protection from invading outsiders.
All large business and oligarchs will probably create (if they haven't already) private armies, as Gazprom has already done to protect itself.
Conflicts and redistribution of property will be resolved by force. It will be the new 90s but far worse - Resembling the Mad Max style and genre of an anti-utopia action movie.
5. The Russian army, it seems, has de facto ceased to exist as a united structure. Soldiers and officers sitting in trenches in the massacre unleashed by Putin, probably finally realized yesterday the utter pointlessness of the war against Ukraine, against the background of the fact that a group of criminals in the rear can pass 600km in a day, sweeping away everything in their path and then be amnestied after killing pilots and civilians.
6. Ukraine is a few steps closer to fully restoring its territorial integrity, including Crimea.
7. What a pity that this circus did not end with the self-destruction of Putin's regime and Prigozhin faction.
But I believe it will happen again with even larger scale!
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One yr ago I moved to Taiwan, right after Russia invaded Ukraine. Ppl here were just starting to discuss whether they might ever face a similar future - and how to prevent it. This report explains why Taiwan has yet to reach a consensus on that question
economist.com/special-report…
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1/4 The most recent update to GPT-3 (ChatGPT/davinci-003) seems to be able to impute unobservable mental states (such as beliefs and desires) to others (in humans we would call it the Theory-of-Mind): arxiv.org/abs/2302.02083
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Over the next 30 days, I plan on writing about the data industry, startups, and democracy.
I recently signed up for @dickiebush & @Nicolascole77's cohort-based course, @ship30for30 . Here are a few reasons why: (1/n)
🤗🤔🤹🚢
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⚡️Chornobyl disconnected from power following Russian attack.
According to state nuclear energy company Energoatom, Chornobyl needs electricity to cool down the spent fuel. If heated, radioactive substances can be released into the environment.
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Today, I’m announcing that the United States is targeting a main artery of Russia’s economy.
We are banning all imports of Russian oil and gas.
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BREAKING: Russia approves list of countries who've taken 'unfriendly actions' against it, including:
- Australia
- Canada
- EU
- Iceland
- Japan
- Monaco
- Montenegro
- New Zealand
- Norway
- Taiwan
- San Marino
- Singapore
- S Korea
- Switzerland
- Ukraine
- UK
- US
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Suddenly a strong Ukrainian chorus has arisen:
We are dying for Europe, democracy & freedom but you lousy West are afraid of provoking Putin!
The Ukrainians are right. The Western concern about irritating Putin when they are dying is shameless. The West must get serious.
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If you are reading and sharing news about Ukraine, you are the resistance 🇺🇦 – at Ukraine
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IORG 最新報告:烏俄戰爭下的資訊操弄:12 項論述、4 大主題:批烏、批美、挺俄、棄台。
✅ 報告全文 iorg.tw/da/21
✅ 歡迎訂閱 iorg.tw/da/sub
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Yesterday, while we were sitting in a bomb shelter, everyone glued to their phones, someone turned on the latest video by Ukraine's president Zelensky. There were all the right words in it to lift our spirits. I am grateful our country has such a great leader in these tough times
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#Taiwan sends #Ukraine 27 tons of medicine by plane
According to Reuters, citing the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Taiwan, a shipment of medicines was sent by plane to Frankfurt, from where it will be delivered to #Ukrainians.
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As atrocities unfold in Ukraine, in Taiwan we commemorate the tragic 228 massacre of 75 years ago. We are reminded that we must stand strong to defend the freedoms that took generations to win.























