@intendsuni
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Joined November 2014
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for those monitoring the situation this seems to be the official US department of education account doing a dogwhistle about getting rid of some Indian kids attending a UT football game
Sam retweeted
Hi Owen, happy to engage on the merits of her statement here. Yes, there is corruption in Ukraine. I’ve actually disagreed with the government’s decision to sanction her, and I’ve been critical of the Zelenskyy government in the past.
There are legitimate concerns about silencing critics, and I know people who have been sent to the front because of believed or perceived actions against the government. That is bad. It erodes trust and confidence and should be called out.
But acting as though she is some lone, brave truth-teller exposing corruption no one else will discuss is deeply disingenuous. Western media has covered corruption in Ukraine extensively, across the ideological spectrum. Ukrainian journalists and independent outlets do the same every day. A simple search makes that obvious.
Of course defense companies profit from war and lobby for defense spending. That is not evidence of some grand conspiracy keeping Ukraine at war. The war continues because Russia invaded Ukraine and continues fighting while demanding additional Ukrainian territory it has not been able to conquer militarily.
If Yulia is advocating for Ukraine to give up territory Russia has been unable to take by force, then she needs to say that plainly. Don’t hide behind vague appeals to “peace.” Say what the proposed peace actually requires: Putin retains control of roughly one-fifth of Ukraine, and Ukraine is then expected to hand over additional territory in Donetsk that Russia could not seize on the battlefield.
That is not peace as some abstract moral good. That is a specific territorial concession to an aggressor, and it has consequences far beyond Ukraine.
If your principle is that a sovereign nation should be compelled to surrender its territory because another country invaded it and the war became costly, then you are hollowing out the very concept of sovereignty. By that same logic, it becomes difficult to explain why borders should be sacrosanct anywhere. You cannot spend years arguing that borders define nations and then suddenly decide that another country’s borders are negotiable because defending them has become inconvenient.
And we should be very careful about the precedent that creates.
There are striking historical similarities here. History does not repeat itself exactly, but it certainly rhymes. Chamberlain also believed territorial concessions could satisfy an aggressor and purchase peace. The lesson of Munich is not that every negotiation is appeasement. It is that concessions made without changing the aggressor’s underlying calculation can simply buy time for the next act of aggression.
And frankly, I would rather hear a serious argument for that position than endless boo-hooing about “world peace” like we are answering a question in a beauty pageant. Everyone wants peace. That tells us nothing.
Tell me what you are actually advocating.
Are you arguing that Putin should retain the Ukrainian territory Russia currently occupies? Say so.
Are you arguing that Ukraine should surrender the remainder of Donetsk that Russia has failed to conquer? Say so.
Are you arguing that Ukrainians who fought and died defending those communities should now watch them handed to the country that invaded them? Say so.
Then defend that argument on its merits.
And conservatives should be especially careful here. We cannot profess belief in national sovereignty, secure borders, deterrence, territorial integrity, and the nation-state and then abandon every one of those principles the moment they become inconvenient overseas. Those values either mean something or they do not.
Peace may ultimately require painful compromises chosen by Ukrainians themselves.
But advocating a sovereign country surrender land to an invading power is not some morally superior position simply because you attach the word “peace” to it.
Surrender is not peace.
And we will have become profoundly morally confused if we start pretending those two things are synonymous.
Sam retweeted
Replying to @TheStalwart
Dear Joe, I don't find your framing useful.
A prediction market on a football result does not affect the result. If the traders in the market are more bullish on Messi scoring, that does not change the probability of Messi scoring.
Here the Treasury market does contain information about expected policy, but the market also changes the economy the Fed reacts to, so that votes depend on outcomes and outcomes on votes.
So FOMC members are not setting the path as some external allmighty force, they are revising their decisions according to what they observe.
And the further you go out into the yield curve, the less their discretion matters for rates. So you could easily argue, as you move further and further out: look, they will do what they will have to do, all I need to have is a good view of long run trends in asset supply (deficits, asset valuations, investment e.g. in AI) and asset demand (inequality, aging, etc) and that will give me my rstar and rstar gives me my long rate, and that will be what the long end prices, and the committee will vote what they have to.
Calling this a prediction market on FOMC votes is a bit like saying that the thermometer is a prediction market on whether I have my coat on. It is not. Yes it does correlate. But the weather determines both the thermometer and the coat.
There are literally dozens of ways to get around air gapping.
- LED lights on the machines, max bandwidth 100 kbps out, 18.2 kbps IN (yes you can pump data IN through an LED on a machine)
- Noise from the HDD, fans etc, max about 200 bits/second
- electromagnetic from cables, power surges from CPU load etc etc
Sam retweeted
Hard to overstate the enormity of this story.
For years economists have been talking about the British disease, asking why the United Kingdom's productivity growth had been lagging the continent.
Turns out it hasn't.
Productivity is still low, behind the pre-2008 trend, and we are miles behind the US... but behind Europe we are not.
This has huge implications for policy discussion. We should *not* be looking to Europe to see how to break out of our bind. The answers don't lie in tax and spend or 'public control'. The countries that do more of that are in precisely the same bind.
We need instead to ask ourselves: what is the USA doing differently?
Sam retweeted
I always imagine Trump’s lawyers spending hours coming up with three exquisitely neutral, painstakingly lawyered reasons they can legally justify doing something censorial.
Then Trump Truth-Tweets:
“TO BE VERY CLEAR: I AM DOING THIS BECAUSE I DON’T LIKE THEIR COVERAGE!!! THIS IS VIEWPOINT DISCRIMINATION, AS BARRED BY THE FIRST AMENDMENT!!! THAT IS THE REASON!!! VERY DELIBERATE. THANK YOU!!!”
Sam retweeted
President Trump Explains Trade Deficits:
“If we buy 2 billion dollars worth of Bananas from Brazil, we’re actually losing 2 billion dollars. So if we stop eating bananas, we actually save 2 billion dollars”.
It’s just simple Economics.
Sam retweeted
NIMBY campaign opposes housing on a London train station car park because it 'threatens a Farmers' market.'
There's just one hitch: the Farmers' market supports the development.
45 new homes in Blackheath on the adjacent station car, thrown into jeopardy with the car park being listed an asset of community value by Lewisham Council. H/t @greenwich_wire
greenwichwire.co.uk/2026/09/…
Sam retweeted
Once again: I know we’re all desensitized to…a lot these days, but it’s objectively insane that the most powerful military in the world is run by a culture warrior and former TV host with no major management experience. Sorry, not normal.
Sam retweeted
Trump running on lower gas prices and no more foreign wars and then starting a war with Iran that literallly everyone except Pete Hegseth knew was going to be a quagmire has to be on the shortlist for dumbest political blunders in American history.
Sam retweeted
OpenAI's Noam Brown says air-gapping the computers may not stop a misaligned AI, because two air-gapped machines can still talk by running a CPU hot and reading the temperature change
"But I think the major takeaway from the incident is that people underestimated the AI. And we never want to be in a situation again where we underestimate the AI. It's a weird world, because AI progress is so fast that people are consistently underestimating the AI."
"So to be in a situation where you don't underestimate it again, when it comes to safety and alignment, you have to have a very, very, very high bar."
"You could even go as far as to say, "Well, we should air gap the computers." And I'm not convinced that that would be sufficient."
"There are studies, and this is mostly academic, where you can have two computers next to each other that are air-gapped and they're still able to communicate with each other because they have temperature sensors."
"One of them is able to run their CPU really hot, and then the other one can actually detect the temperature change, and then that actually gives them a mechanism to communicate."
_________
Link and more key quotes from OpenAI's safety related conversations: firesidealpha.substack.com/p…
Noam Brown reveals OpenAI is already watching chain-of-thought monitorability degrade as models get better at controlling what they show
"And this is one major concern, and we're already seeing signs that chain of thought monitorability is degrading, for various reasons."
"We're trying to figure out exactly why, because we want to reverse the trend. But we're seeing that the model is becoming better able at controlling its chain of thought."
"So this is a problem, because you could have a situation where the model understands what chain of thought is and that people are observing it."
"And eventually they will, because this is all in the pre-training data. The idea of chain of thought monitoring has been around long enough that it's in the pre-training data, they're aware of it, but they're not actually able to control their chains of thought."
"If we reach a point where they're actually able to recognize, "Oh, I am being observed, I want to think these bad thoughts in a way that is not observable to my monitors," and then they're able to actually do that, then there's a problem."
_________
More key quotes from OpenAI's safety related conversations: firesidealpha.substack.com/p…
Sam retweeted
It is absolutely incredible that the president of the United States still has no idea what a trade deficit is.
If I go to the grocery store & spend $30 on vegetables, I haven't "LOST" $30. I’ve gained vegetables I’d otherwise have to grow myself. Staggering economic illiteracy.
Sam retweeted
Well, we finally have a really rigorous answer to the question:
Did the Internet kill religion?
Yeah, it did.
When Internet penetration rose, religiosity declined in a dataset of 81 countries.
Sam retweeted
I’ve been hearing this recently from multiple people locally. The trucking business has been hit severely because of consequences of the Iran War. People I know are just plain shutting it down.
Trump and corruption go together like peanut butter and jelly.
I only hope America still has a democracy when he’s gone.
theleahfiles.substack.com/p/…
Sam retweeted
Writing off thousands every week to sickness benefit burdens the taxpayer, weakens the economy and stymies the life chances of the claimant.
Most never work again. The threshold for this momentous decision should be huge
Yet 70% of assessments are still done via a phone call