The Intelligence desk for prediction markets. Independent news, original research, market data and regulatory insights

Joined April 2026
Q3 2026 set records on every headline measure. Investors valued Kalshi and Polymarket at $61B between them, while courts in nine states ruled against an exchange. Here’s what the data says about where prediction markets stand:
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Prediction markets could borrow a few lessons from gaming’s use of AI. In a Q&A with @EventusInt, @BetConstruct's Seda Hovsepyan shares where she sees the opportunities, from spotting suspicious activity to helping users make sense of complex markets. Read the full conversation below👇
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At 7:37 p.m. ET on Sunday, a $100 bet placed on the Ravens to win would have paid out $850 on Polymarket seven minutes later.
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Prediction Frontier is an official media partner of @EventusInt's upcoming Prediction Markets Summit Europe in Gibraltar, 9–10 Nov @NigelMFeetham opens the summit months after Gibraltar brought in Europe's first dedicated prediction market rules #PXSummitEurope
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NEW: @ParlayXOfficial launched Monday as an institutional execution layer above @Kalshi and @Polymarket — one API for routing, custody, and segregated trading "pods." The question isn't whether it works. It's whether the venues let it matter! Read more👇
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Surveillance in prediction markets is no longer just an order-book problem. By extending @Solidus_Labs from KalshiEx to Kinetic Markets, @Kalshi is putting monitoring across exchanges, FCMs, and clearing — the full-stack institutions will trade through. Read more👇
🤖 Made with AI
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