@imnotharsh
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Investor | Options Trader | Banking | ex-Consulting | Semiconductor Enthusiast | Early $INTC 🐂 | Founder & Principal @INHCapital | Not Financial Advice
Joined December 2010
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$INTC Intel bullish case 🐂 for FY25 and FY26.
The potential for growth in Intel’s stock, catalyzed by the foundry network enhancement / investment in manufacturing capacity, presents an undervalued opportunity for substantial market capitalization expansion.
This growth potential, estimated to increase Intel’s market capitalization by at least 30%, is further bolstered by the regulatory policy changes anticipated by the Trump administration next year.
Year-over-year earnings growth anticipated to surpass 200% due to the company’s substantial production plans, the conclusion of its high-investment phase, and the implementation of in-house manufacturing strategies that will lead to cost reductions.
(source: Forbes)
$MSFT Microsoft's capex is going into CPU supply, of which they cannot buy enough -
hmm
*UNITED NATIONS-TRUMP: IRAN'S REGIME IS WEAK AND DESPERATE
*UNITED NATIONS-TRUMP: CALLS ON ALL NATIONS TO ECONOMICALLY ISOLATE IRAN
bro..
ImNotHarsh | 📈💸 retweeted
Hyperscaler capex keeps rising
Memory's share of that capex rises even faster
The chart is created by combining two UBS tables to visualize the relationship. Page 17 and 18
"Money is moving back into the AI trade," said Thomas Hayes, chairman at Great Hill Capital LLC in New York.
Enthusiasm for chipmakers cooled in recent months as markets scrutinized AI spending by hyperscalers. Higher oil prices linked to the US-Iran conflict and expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates added to the pressure.
But now investors believe AI is the only area that can work in a Federal Reserve-induced economic slowdown, Hayes said. (Reuters)
ImNotHarsh | 📈💸 retweeted
$INTC’s glass-substrate patent puts Micro LEDs inside the package🥳🥳
TrendForce reports that the design, originally filed in 2022, embeds semiconductor dies in glass and powers their Micro LEDs through through-glass vias. Proposed uses include internal electrical-test indicators and illuminated lettering on the CPU surface.
For $INTC, this describes a way to add lighting and diagnostic functions to chip packaging. The applications described do not establish a high-speed optical data link, so this patent alone should not be treated as a CPO breakthrough or a production announcement.
Sources
trendforce.com/news/2026/09/…
BOFA: MEMORY SALES TOWARD $2 TRILLION BY 2030
Bank of America sees memory industry sales reaching about $2 trillion by 2030, with roughly $1.4 trillion from DRAM and $600 billion from NAND.
The call rests on high ASP sustainability and limited price cuts. That is a long-duration bull case for the memory complex, with $MU in the spotlight.
via @pequityresearch
ImNotHarsh | 📈💸 retweeted
The way to look at Intel is in business units
It's core IDM businesses. Consumer and DCAI CPU should as a whole generate 60%+ margins after the transition to unified core and the Foundry ramp up in 28 finishes
Intel expanding its external foundry business. That's a 40% business for now
Intel expanding ASIC design business is a 40% gross margin business for now
Intel's AI GPU business will have to subsize memory cost. Expect 40% gross margin business for now
The old Intel was just the IDM portion, of which we can expect Intel to reach and surpass it's previous 60% margins in next few years.
Something to note from this report is Intel's desire to really monetize Intel 3 for a long time. This means more fabs have to built to support 14A/10A volume. Very bullish and what a foundry does
$INTC
Takeaways from Bernstein management meetings in Silicon Valley $INTC
1. Margins beat because of mix, volume, price — not because the turnaround is done.
2. Old plants are very profitable. New 18A plants are not, until they get huge.
3. Boss doesn’t want 60% margins. He wants growth + profit to add to ~45.
4. The cost problem is partly the factories — and a lot the oversized chip designs.
5. Servers: they can sell every chip they can make into 2027.
6. Packaging and custom chips will grow fast and look worse on margins at first.
7. PCs still print cash, but expensive memory is slowing buyers.
8. Real test is 2028, when the industry’s new capacity arrives.
BERNSTEIN: INTEL ROAD NOTES FROM SILICON VALLEY
Bernstein's notes from management meetings in Silicon Valley land on $INTC.
Margins beat on mix, volume, and price — not because the turnaround is finished. Legacy plants are very profitable. New 18A fabs are not until they get huge.
Management is not chasing 60% margins. The aim is growth and profit that add to roughly 45. Cost pressure is partly the factories and a lot oversized chip designs.
Servers: they can sell every chip they can make into 2027. Packaging and custom silicon will grow fast and look worse on margins at first. PCs still print cash, but expensive memory is slowing buyers.
The real test is 2028, when industry new capacity arrives.
via @intelfabs
DAISHIN: SAMSUNG DRAM CUSTOMERS PUSH 10-YEAR DEALS
Daishin Securities says some Samsung Electronics customers are requesting 10-year contracts, and it judges that extension contracts have already been successfully concluded with some of them.
That kind of tenor is a tight-supply signal across the DRAM complex: relevant for $MU and SKHY.
via @pequityresearch
CHIPBOOK: KOREA→MALAYSIA HBM SURGE POINTS TO INTEL PENANG
SemiAnalysis ChipBook August data shows HBM exports from Korea to Malaysia up 467% year over year, roughly $3B across just two months.
They attribute the jump primarily to $INTC advanced packaging capacity in Penang, with roughly 50 back-end roles open on LinkedIn. Exports to Taiwan slowed over the same window.
Trade flows and hiring are starting to look like an EMIB customer shift ahead of the usual announcement cycle.
via @SemiAnalysis_
