viktor

Dear CT, I have a sincere question to all you quants, chart analyzers, TA/PA folks and general crypto market experts. I decidedly am not one of any of these categories. I'm a technologist/product guy/builder/operator. I do not proclaim to understand what drives valuations and price action in what to me seems to be a highly irrational marketplace. So I'm looking at you, among others: @Kevin_Cage_, @CryptoCharged, @NCashOfficial, @CryptoHeroesDE - help me out here: Much focus appears to be placed on "onchain revenue" of Layer 1 blockchains, as a metric to derive blockchains' valuation from. "Onchain revenue" defined as the sum of transaction fees collected over a period of time. On the surface, this makes some sense to me, as it is probably the best proxy for basic supply/demand economics. Consequently, dashboards like @chainspect_app present is as the primary metric for "Blockchain Financials", like here: chainspect.app/dashboard/fin… So this is where things get very interesting, and totally puzzling to me. casper-network:native is not currently tracked by Chainspect, however if it were, it would be the 19th highest revenue generating Layer 1 blockchain on the list, just above $SEI, $XTZ, $DOT, sui:native and just below $ALGO. Now as you well know, casper-network:native's FDV is significantly lower than that of all of these peers, even though Casper's onchain revenue is higher. In fact, SUI, with just $22 in daily revenue, is valued at over $11B, while DOT, with $26 in revenue, is valued $2.6B. Now to an outside economist, valuing a project/company that does $22/day ($8K per year) at $11B is obviously the definition of an irrational market. So while many may focus on this "onchain revenue" metric, it appears "the market" does not, at least not rationally or uniformly? Take Casper as an example - as a protocol/technology it's objectively superior to most on this list, and it's leading the charge in two of the most consequential technological shifts this decade: tokenization and agentic commerce. So those are additional objective metrics that do not appear to drive valuations in the market (are all the projects on this list even still actively maintained?). So that leaves what? Hype? Manipulation? FOMO? Paid influencers? Crypto bro culture? Is that what our industry comes down to? Or is there a more fundamental approach hiding beneath it all? In addition to learning from some of your expertise, I'm hoping to engage in an objective, dare I say even scientific discussion with those of you who have insights to share. Not looking to bash any projects/people/parties. If that's what you're looking for, please go elsewhere. Thank you