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CAN ON-CHAIN DATA HELP PROTECT AGAINST ICP DOWNSIDE?
We backtested a proprietary downside-risk model built from icterminal on-chain data.
Jan 2025 → Aug 2026
Risk-managed $ICP: +118%
Buy & hold $ICP: −76%
Maximum drawdown:
−32% vs −84%
This is a long-only spot strategy.
It holds ICP under normal conditions and moves out of the asset when the model flags an elevated downside-risk regime.
No shorting. No leverage.
The model also outperformed in 2026:
+44% vs −16%
The interesting part is not just the backtested return.
It’s that the structure of on-chain activity appears to contain information about subsequent downside risk.
Signal construction remains proprietary.
Historical research backtest. One-day execution lag. 10 bps per exposure change. No return credited while out of ICP. Not live performance.
Turn data into an edge: icterminal.com/custom-inquir…
Looks like #ICP infrastructure wasn't the only thing getting attention.
Over the past few days, icterminal has also seen a sharp increase in hostile activity targeting our infrastructure.
We have no evidence it's connected to the attacks described by @dominic_w — but the timing is notable.
Everything remained operational.
Still here. Still tracking $ICP
🚨 The widespread attacks against the Internet Computer continued again today, and thankfully, have failed again.
The cabal's latest attack targeted the ckBTC "bitcoin twin" minting canisters. This time, they spent thousands of dollars on ICP tokens in the course of their attack, but only caused minimal disruption.
What did happen: the attacks revealed the need for some useful hardening, and the NNS (i.e. the network's autonomous governance and orchestration system) took down the ckBTC canister for an upgrade. The downtime was ~1hr.
Though the disruption was minimal, we must not thank the attackers for helping improve the network, because they are criminals.
The attacks reveal more about who they are:
1. They are willing to throw buckets of money at their attacks, confirming they are professionals on a mission, rather than amateurs.
2. Since their attacks lack a common thread (such as trying to steal tokens), we can see their true purpose is to harm the reputation of the Internet Computer by causing disruption.
Of course, as an ecosystem, we have experienced widespread attacks designed to harm our reputation before, albeit in different forms.
Most famously, in May 2021, the Internet Computer was widely seen as a potential crypto industry disruptor.
A key narrative at the time was woven around the potential of web3 apps that would actually run on blockchain networks i.e. "onchain," as per the original meaning of that phrase.
The fly in the narrative's ointment, however, which was being used to sell the potential of some major up-and-coming chains, was that the Internet Computer was the only network that could actually host general-purpose apps and services built from "smart contracts" (which are far better called "network code") thanks to years of R&D by the DFINITY Foundation.
A successful launch of the Internet Computer threatened to puncture this web3 apps narrative, which was at the heart of their marketing and fundraising efforts. Furthermore, their insiders were aware of the years of R&D at scale that had been performed to create the Internet Computer network, and they were downright terrified of the competitive threat it posed.
Simply put, in the fever of 2021, they feared that if the Internet Computer launched successfully, it might dramatically reduce their ability to hoover up billions from the markets in the crypto bull run.
The resulting attacks by corrupt but powerful industry actors involved massive market manipulation on an exchange before/after launch that made the ICP token price crash, lawsuits by a corrupt law firm secretly on the payroll of a big industry actor, and massive further manipulation of public perception using huge social media astroturf armies, paid crypto press, and even a huge mainstream publication whose key reporter was linked to an actor who is now in jail.
Events took place on a historic scale that was completely extraordinary, and I hope the full story, including what it was like dealing with what took place, makes the light of day some day — I am pleased to say there is no comparison to what is happening today.
As a result of these past events, to this current day, a large majority of people who consider themselves crypto industry aficionados, and interested investors and journalists, remain completely unaware that most blockchain networks can only host tokens and lightweight financial logic. The corruption and criminality of the time successfully hid what the Internet Computer does differently from other networks, and created a reality distortion field that persists to this day.
Crypto Leaks, an investigative journalism website that publishes reports based on covertly recorded video created by undercover investigators, has exposed what was behind some of the extraordinary happenings.
Thankfully, several of those exposed by Crypto Leaks now sit in jail, and American judges later took action against the law firm involved, among other wins Crypto Leaks gifted to the industry. However, many of those exposed have so far escaped major consequences, and crypto press has often taken a hear-no-evil see-no-evil approach, preventing people from learning what happened. That's a shame, because we all want the crypto industry to be a clean place, where competition is fair and normal.
My personal view, is that the happenings of 2021 marked a pivotal moment for the industry, when the original crypto movement, and technical folks and idealists interested in making the world a better place through innovation and advanced cryptography and computer science, were overwhelmingly steamrollered by sharp-elbowed speculators and manipulators.
The Internet Computer ecosystem would have set a standard for the crypto industry that kept it honest, but as a result of its suppression at the time, we got an age of speculation and scams, and vaporware and narratives, in which money could often much more profitably be invested into hyping rubbish than into R&D that produces technological utility.
Thankfully, what happened is now far in the rearview mirror for the Internet Computer ecosystem, because it has moved on to mainstream pastures, and has a incredibly exciting future ahead. Those currently paying for the new tide of poisonous trolls on web3 social media, and black hat hackers, will be disappointed to find this isn't 2021.
Initiatives such as Caffeine (see caffeine dot ai), the AI chat service that builds apps on the Internet Computer, have shown that the network has enormous mass market utility, which does not depend on tokens and speculation — for example, 99% of those building on the Internet Computer using Caffeine have no idea that their apps run on a secure crypto network that can play the role of cloud.
Now, forthcoming advances like ICP "cloud engines", and initiatives such as Open SaaS and the Internet Intelligence Gateway, and growing sovereign tech adoption, and many other things currently underway, promise to take the network to another level entirely.
Crucially, as intended since work began in 2015, the network is becoming a revolutionary new tech stack for the AI era, and for the sovereign tech movement generally. While the massive potential exists in mainstream fields, projects like MULTI/DEX (dot ai) also continue to demonstrate how the extraordinary capabilities of the network can also be applied in fields such as defi.
As the Internet Computer rapidly approaches escape velocity all over again, the moment when its stunning differentiating features and capabilities will become obvious within the web3 industry also approach again.
Today, networks talk about AI tokens, and digital currencies for AI. Cynically, one might imagine these things were created because they are easy for retail investors to latch on to, if not undestand.
Meanwhile, the Internet Computer has pioneered a new kind of onchain "AIware" software (Motoko), which, when compared against software running on traditional technology stacks, creates apps and services that integrate AI in game changing and previously impossible ways, which software can also be written and maintained far more effectively and safely by AI agents working autonomously without human oversight.
The potential of AI is real and truly beyond anything we have seen before, and I predict that AIware will power one of the largest business transformation stories in history.
For the Internet Computer, an exciting event horizon approaches all over again, and my guess is this is agitating some people in the crypto industry. It may even be reactivating bad actors from the past.
But, we in the ICP community are not afraid, because these bad actors are a spent force. Moreover, the Internet Computer's future now depends on the mainstream world much more than it goes the crypto world, and the mainstream world affords these bad actors no power.
Of course, crypto would be better without them, and that's why DFINITY continues to offer substantial rewards to anyone who can provide information that exposes them, but —
This latest growing wave of attacks is in fact just a hot signal that it's game on again for the Internet Computer, which we should all welcome.
And, seeing the Internet Computer reach its potential, after all the years of toil and effort, is what keeps my fire, and the fire of many others, burning bright. We stay focused in pursuit of our goals, no matter how long it takes.
We are creating the next tech stack for the AI era, we remain undeterred, and the potential of what we have created is tremendous.
My thanks again to the ICP community 💪
ONE DETAIL WE DIDN’T HIGHLIGHT
The strategy was exposed only ~52% of the time.
Yet it returned +118%, while $ICP lost 76% over the same period.
Sometimes the edge is knowing when not to be exposed.
CAN ON-CHAIN DATA HELP PROTECT AGAINST ICP DOWNSIDE?
We backtested a proprietary downside-risk model built from icterminal on-chain data.
Jan 2025 → Aug 2026
Risk-managed $ICP: +118%
Buy & hold $ICP: −76%
Maximum drawdown:
−32% vs −84%
This is a long-only spot strategy.
It holds ICP under normal conditions and moves out of the asset when the model flags an elevated downside-risk regime.
No shorting. No leverage.
The model also outperformed in 2026:
+44% vs −16%
The interesting part is not just the backtested return.
It’s that the structure of on-chain activity appears to contain information about subsequent downside risk.
Signal construction remains proprietary.
Historical research backtest. One-day execution lag. 10 bps per exposure change. No return credited while out of ICP. Not live performance.
Turn data into an edge: icterminal.com/custom-inquir…
icterminal.com retweeted
CAN ON-CHAIN DATA HELP PROTECT AGAINST ICP DOWNSIDE?
We backtested a proprietary downside-risk model built from icterminal on-chain data.
Jan 2025 → Aug 2026
Risk-managed $ICP: +118%
Buy & hold $ICP: −76%
Maximum drawdown:
−32% vs −84%
This is a long-only spot strategy.
It holds ICP under normal conditions and moves out of the asset when the model flags an elevated downside-risk regime.
No shorting. No leverage.
The model also outperformed in 2026:
+44% vs −16%
The interesting part is not just the backtested return.
It’s that the structure of on-chain activity appears to contain information about subsequent downside risk.
Signal construction remains proprietary.
Historical research backtest. One-day execution lag. 10 bps per exposure change. No return credited while out of ICP. Not live performance.
Turn data into an edge: icterminal.com/custom-inquir…
NODE PROVIDER BALANCES KEEP RISING
The balance of tracked node provider wallets recently reached a new all-time high above 2M $ICP
Live data on icterminal.com
ICP SUPPLY INFLATION IS COOLING
The 365-day change in total $ICP supply is now around 3.6%, down from roughly 3.9% earlier this year and below the ~4.1% peak reached in 2024.
More data on icterminal.com
ICP SUPPLY CONCENTRATION BACK AT GENESIS LEVELS
The Top 100 $ICP holders now control 47.25% of supply — roughly where concentration stood in 2021.
Concentration fell from ~47% in 2021 to nearly 34% at the low, before gradually rebuilding. That entire post-Genesis dispersion has now been reversed.
More data on icterminal.com
EARLY ACCESS APPLICATIONS FOR ICTERMINAL CLOSE TODAY.
Apply before 23:59 CEST to access the discounted Early Access annual rate.
One professional workspace for $ICP analytics: on-chain metrics, wallet intelligence, screening and monitoring.
Onboarding begins from 31 July.
Request access at icterminal.com
ANY WALLET. ONE WORKFLOW.
A wallet balance shows where an address is today.
Wallet Intelligence helps explain how it got there.
Search any $ICP wallet to explore historical balances, transaction flows and counterparty activity in one view.
The example below shows how a node provider wallet can be analysed across its full history.
Early Access applications close on 30 July 2026.
Apply before the deadline to access the discounted Early Access annual rate.
Request access at icterminal.com
TRACK $ICP NODE REWARD FLOWS
New Node Provider metrics now offer an hourly view of how balances evolve.
For the current month reward distribution:
📉 133,708 ICP moved out within the first 7 hours
💸 223,135 ICP in cumulative outflows since 15 July
Monitor how newly issued rewards are retained, transferred or potentially returned to the market.
Early Access applications close soon
Request access 👉 icterminal.com
ICP NET INFLATION HOLDS NEAR RECORD LOWS
The USD value of monthly net issuance — newly minted $ICP minus burned supply, adjusted for market price — has compressed to historically low levels.
• May 2026: ~ $2.5M, the lowest monthly reading on record.
• June 2026: ~ $3.1M, remaining close to the all-time low.
Despite a modest increase in June, the broader trend points to a significantly lower inflation burden in USD terms.
Track the full history on icterminal.com
Holder distribution ranges are powerful.
Custom ranges sharpen the view.
icterminal’s $ICP supply distribution metrics are built from precise, non-overlapping address ranges.
For example:
≥50 to <100
≥100 to <500
≥500 to <1,000
With Custom Metrics, those ranges can be combined into a single historical series:
≥50 to <1,000
Define the segment. Generate the metric. Track it historically.
Early Access applications are open until 30 July 2026.
Request access 👉 icterminal.com
Today, icterminal enters its next chapter.
A professional intelligence platform for the Internet Computer.
Built for analysts, ecosystem teams, and businesses that need to understand what is moving across the network — and why.
The next era starts now.
Early Access applications are open until 30 July 2026.
Apply for priority onboarding and a preferential first-year rate.
Request access 👉 icterminal.com
ANNOUNCEMENT
Since September 2024, icterminal has provided the Internet Computer community with free access to on-chain data, market intelligence, and blockchain analytics.
Over the past two years, the platform has served more than 15,000 users and grown into one of the most advanced independent data resources in the #ICP ecosystem.
Today, we are entering the next phase.
icterminal.com is evolving from a community analytics website into a professional-grade on-chain intelligence terminal.
The next generation of the platform is being built for investors, analysts, builders, node providers, ecosystem teams, and businesses that require deeper insights, higher-quality data, and more advanced analytics.
This transition will allow us to expand our data infrastructure, introduce new datasets and metrics, enhance entity labeling, and deliver a level of blockchain intelligence comparable to leading analytics platforms across the digital asset industry.
As part of this evolution, the complete terminal will transition to a paid professional subscription model.
We will continue to share selected public insights, research, and market intelligence with the broader ICP community.
More details coming soon.
Decentralization beyond Earth.
One day, an #ICP node may run in orbit.
@elonmusk @dominic_w — ready when you are.
Until then, we keep tracking the chain from Earth.
$ICP PRICE DROPS 20% TOWARD $2 AS NASDAQ FALLS NEARLY 4%; BITCOIN BREAKS BELOW $60K
2.5M internet-computer:native MOVED AFTER MORE THAN FIVE YEARS OF DORMANCY
Five wallets funded directly by the minting protocol with 500k ICP each on May 6, 2021, transferred their entire balances to a wallet allegedly linked to @dfinity Foundation on June 2.
The 2.5M ICP had remained inactive for more than five years and is now consolidated into a single address. The source wallets are now empty.
#ICP POSTS STRONGEST MONTHLY BURN IN 9 MONTHS
May closed with 100,085 $ICP burned, the highest monthly burn recorded since August 2025.
Go to chart 👉 icterminal.com/metrics.php?m…













