iceup retweeted
None of the data that came out today gives us a different picture of the Chinese economy from what we’ve seen all year. The economy is still heavily focused on boosting production and is still struggling with boosting demand.
GDP grew 4.5% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, slightly higher than expected, from 5.0% in the first quarter and 4.3% in the second quarter. Year to date GDP has grown 4.6%, just above the bottom of the GDP growth target for 2026.
In September, industrial output went up by 5.5% year on year, or 5.3% for the first nine months. Meanwhile retail sales increased by 1.1% in September, or 2.6% for the first nine months.
The gap between domestic production and domestic consumption, in other words, continues to widen rather than narrow, with the gap much wider in September than it has been over the rest of the year. This can only be balanced by rising investment or a rising trade surplus.
And it clearly isn’t being balanced by rising investment. Fixed asset investment in the first nine months of 2026 was down 7.2% year on year, or 4.2% with property investment deducted.
The decline in overall investment was driven by an even sharper decline in private investment, which was down by 10.4% year on year, or 6.7% with property investment deducted. Disaggregated by sector, investment in infrastructure declined by 4.2% year on year, manufacturing by 2.1%, and real estate development by 20.6%. The good news is that the decline in investment may finally be bottoming out, with fixed asset investment in September, rising by 0.07% month on month.
We will probably see fiscal expansion in the last quarter of this year, although I think it would be a good thing if Beijing let growth come in at the bottom of the target, especially if they lower the target further in 2027. Debt is simply growing too fast, and it is growing fast only because of the urgent desire to meet politically-determined GDP growth targets. The longer this goes on, the more difficult the ultimate adjustment will be.
english.news.cn/20261019/2da…
iceup retweeted
🚨 BREAKING: CHINA HAS CALLED AN EMERGENCY MEETING TO DUMP HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS IN U.S. BONDS.
Beijing plans to use the liquidity to prop up Chinese stocks, making its market look stronger than the U.S. to attract global investors.
This strategic selloff will put enormous pressure across global markets, directly challenging the perceived stability of U.S. sovereign debt.
iceup retweeted
Russian Kosmos 2612 and ICEYE-X36 (providing Ukraine military support) are now in perfect sync with each other. The Russian military satellite is intentionally stalking and tracking the Western radar satellite. Keeping a satellite "bumper-to-bumper" in this manner allows Russia to intercept or jam data transmissions, physically inspect Western technology, or quickly pivot to execute a kinetic or non-kinetic anti-satellite (ASAT) attack with very little warning or fuel expenditure.
Kosmos 2612 executed a series of highly precise, fuel-heavy maneuvers to force itself into a "coplanar" orbit—matching ICEYE-X36's exact altitude (~555 km), speed, and inclination (~97.8°). The ICEYE-X36 satellite is giving the Ukraine military support.
iceup retweeted
China has added more than $43 trillion in debt since Xi Jinping took power. That’s not a typo.
The Wall Street Journal’s latest reporting lays out the math: China’s total debt to GDP blew past 300% in 2025, up 60 points since 2019, now higher than the United States. Most of that growth didn’t come from Beijing’s own books, the central government’s debt stays relatively modest at around 30% of GDP. It came from local governments, through murky financing vehicles cities and provinces used to hit growth targets, many of them pouring money into real estate that then collapsed.
A broader IMF measure that counts both official local debt and those shadow vehicles puts China’s real government debt load at 127% of GDP, up from 98% just five years ago.
Here’s where the money went: factories and apartments nobody needed enough of. That mismatch triggered price wars, squeezed profits and wages, and now feeds directly into deflation and weak demand at home.
And it doesn’t stay home. Chinese companies carrying all that debt keep producing more cars, solar panels, and electronics than China itself can absorb. The surplus gets exported, undercutting prices everywhere else and fueling the trade fights now playing out with country after country.
Economists call this the real signature of the Xi era: investment-driven growth long after the investments stopped paying off. The capital controls and state-run banks mean China probably avoids a sudden collapse. What it doesn’t avoid is a slow bleed, years of suppressed returns and weaker growth, while everyone downstream absorbs the overflow.
iceup retweeted
Russian ‘shadow fleet’ fakes locations to appear in two places at once ft.trib.al/HCN2hDM
iceup retweeted
⚡️Russian drones hit western Ukraine as nationwide attacks kill 10, injure 73.
Russian strikes hit 20 locations, while falling debris was reported at four other sites. Three western Ukrainian oblasts came under Russian attack on the morning of Oct. 18, continuing Moscow's recent pattern of targeting critical infrastructure across multiple regions.
kyivindependent.com/russian-…
iceup retweeted
a disorder in which the brain’s deep structures rapidly swell and die. The analysis confirms that SARS-CoV-2 account for nearly 90 % of reported triggers, and it quantifies a mortality burden that has persisted despite intensive care: roughly 4 in 10 affected kids do NOT survive
iceup retweeted
BREAKING | 🇱🇹🇷🇺‼️‼️ An attempted arson attack targeting a facility storing Starlink satellite communications equipment has been thwarted in Lithuania, raising fresh concerns about Russian hybrid warfare operations against critical infrastructure in Europe.
Lithuanian Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius said the incident occurred shortly after midnight on October 18. Security services had previously warned the facility about possible attacks, allowing authorities to strengthen protection and prevent the attempted sabotage. The prime minister linked the incident to Russia’s hybrid warfare campaign against Europe, citing similar acts of sabotage in other European countries. He has convened a National Security Commission meeting for October 19 to discuss both the attempted arson and a separate unidentified drone incursion into Lithuanian airspace.
The attempted attack highlights the vulnerability of satellite communications supply chains to physical sabotage. Disrupting facilities connected to Starlink could threaten equipment availability and logistical support for users who depend on satellite connectivity, including Ukraine. If Russian involvement is established, the incident would represent another example of Moscow targeting strategically important infrastructure beyond Ukraine’s borders.
See the latest updates with us: @visionergeo
iceup retweeted
A woman in Wainwright, who appears to be married to a member of the Canadian Armed Forces, says she felt an explosion. She says that approximately 500 are injured.
iceup retweeted
A drone reportedly struck the cable-stayed bridge over the Korabelny Fairway in St. Petersburg.
The bridge is part of the Western High-Speed Diameter (WHSD), a toll highway connecting the southern and northern parts of the city.
The 620-meter-long bridge connects Bely Island and Vasilyevsky Island and carries eight lanes of traffic.
The extent of the damage remains unclear.
iceup retweeted
There is a major attack ongoing against targets in the Saint Petersburg area in Russia. Among several targets this oil storage has been struck.
iceup retweeted
Ukrainian attack drones hit a datacenter belonging to the Russian social media giant VK tonight, setting it on fire.
VK's network has begun experiencing disruptions.
iceup retweeted
BREAKING: “Significant casualties,” including deaths, after explosion at Canadian military base in Wainwright, Alberta, officials say
iceup retweeted
🧪 The False-Negative Problem With Rapid Antigen Tests
Rapid antigen tests (RATs) are fast and convenient - but they miss a lot of infections, and the miss rate isn't a fixed number. It depends almost entirely on viral load, timing, and whether you have symptoms. 🎯
The headline finding: in asymptomatic people, more than half of infections are missed - one study found 58.7% of asymptomatic cases were falsely negative, compared with only 15.8% in symptomatic people. 📉 In children, asymptomatic sensitivity collapsed to just 20.5%. Sensitivity also tracks viral load directly: below the ~10⁶ RNA copies/ml infectivity threshold, it drops to roughly 71%, and it falls steadily as load declines. ⏱️ Timing matters too - tests perform best in the first week of symptoms and degrade after that.
Why does this happen? It's not that the tests are "broken." RATs detect viral antigen, and when there's less virus present - early infection, late infection, or an asymptomatic course - there's simply less antigen to find. Some Omicron-era N-protein mutations also impaired certain commercial kits, though many performed consistently across variants. 🔬
Here's why this matters for a Long Covid audience: a negative RAT is often treated as definitive, but it isn't. ❌ A missed infection means someone may not rest, may not seek early care, and may never connect later symptoms to the infection - and a negative test does not rule out Long Covid risk. The practical takeaway: if you're symptomatic, treat a single negative RAT with caution, repeat in 24–48 hours, and consider a NAAT/PCR when it matters. 🔁
Bottom line: a negative rapid test is a snapshot of viral load, not proof of no infection - and the consequences of missing one can be long-lasting. 🧠
This post was informed, in part, by longcovidbot.com
iceup retweeted
SARS-CoV-2 Infection Doubles Mortality Risk in Hospitalized Heart Failure share.google/A82rkcjLdU70wqX…
iceup retweeted
Crude oil exports out of the Persian Gulf are almost back to pre-war levels based on data from the great team at @TankerTrackers. Reason oil prices aren't down is IRGC attacks on ships, which have spiked shipping costs. Time to shut IRGC gunboats down...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/…
iceup retweeted
📈 The Worst of the Pandemic Is Decades Away
SARS-CoV-2 is not just a respiratory virus that occasionally causes Long Covid. It's a systemic, multi-organ pathogen whose damage outlives the acute infection - and because different organs fail on different timetables, the population-wide effects won't plateau all at once. They'll arrive in waves, spread over decades. 🧵
iceup retweeted
UK COVID-19 Hospital Admissions Surge 41% in Just Two Weeks insiderpaper.com/uk-covid-19…
