Agnostic on-chain explorer. Now testing every trading claim I see, fees included. Data, not signals. NFA
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Joined August 2021
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1/ Over the past 9 days I tested the trading ideas I keep seeing here: Telegram signals, "trending" memecoins, copy trading, grid bots, arbitrage. Real data, real fees, rules fixed before looking at the results. 12 of 15 failed. Thread:
1/ hedera-hashgraph:native, one call for the week, written down before it starts. Call: support at $0.066 breaks. At least one daily close under $0.0660 between Nov 7 and Nov 13 (UTC, Binance spot). I grade it here on Nov 14: HOLDS or FAIL. NFA, DYOR.
5/ The base rate. I replayed this setup, price under its 50-day and 200-day averages, from 1,220 past days of HBAR. A daily close 2.3% lower within the next week happened 68% of the time. My number: 70%. The chart and the news add 2 points to what history says.
1/ Trading ads love screenshots like "+1,939% in 2 days". So I checked every stock on Binance Stocks that closed at least 2x up in a single day over the last 5 years: 213 cases. Here is what happened to someone who bought the next morning.
4/ One of these ads sells an indicator built on "18 lines of code". The code on screen is a 20-period moving average. I tested moving-average, MACD and RSI rules on short timeframes before. All lost after fees.
5/ Rule written before I pulled the data. Daily prices, buy at the next open, 1% costs, compared with 20,000 random entries. Full table and limits: cryptoedgeexplorers.com/clai… NFA.
1/ I went through a year of finance newsletter emails about gold, silver and the dollar: 2,299 of them. Only 299 forecasts named a target and a date you could check. Here is what happened to the ones that came due. Thread:
4/ What did come true: mostly bank price targets the emails passed along, like gold at $4,000 or $4,500 by mid-2026. The calls built around a dramatic date were the ones that missed.
5/ The rule was written before I collected a single email. Senders not named. 129 forecasts are still open; the next reset dates are Nov 12 and Dec 14. Method and full table: cryptoedgeexplorers.com/clai… NFA.
4/ What held up: boring stuff. A daily trend filter on BTC cut the worst drawdown from 77% to 56% in the backtest, with a similar return to just holding since 2020.