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The market is wound tight. This should be a volatile week. Crypto can’t sit at these levels much longer with equities doing what they’re doing. Either we show relative strength while stocks bleed, or we go test 75K. Took a few speculative positions anyway.

$BTC was higher the morning after CPI in 22 of the last 32 prints. This year it’s 8 of 9. CPI drops in 30 mins. Core is expected at 0.3% m/m. → 0.4% or higher adds odds of a hike on October 28 → 0.2% or lower is good for the market $BTC has been ranging since September 21 and pressing into 84K for a few days now. Nothing on the higher timeframes looks bad to me. Expect volatility today. Either way, it’s fresh material for new ideas. Watching closely.

How much longer am I sitting on the fence? Spent another weekend out of the market. Missed nothing, again. Last week we corrected to 80.4K, bounced, and we’re back in the range. Still, nothing on my watchlist looks good except: celestia:native, $ONDO, $NEAR and $ZRO. So I keep waiting for timing with a good RR. CPI drops Wednesday. Might start building positions around it.

Still doing nothing. No position is a position too. The market's basically standing still. Anything I'd have opened would've ended in a stop, or at best, paid funding. Range hasn't changed: 82,800 – 87,500. A sweep below 82,800 is the interesting zone to buy back. In this market, 90% of alts fade every impulse. The 10% holding up: $NEAR $PUMP $ZRO $ETHFI $TAO Narrative plays with good entries: $ONDO $LIT $HYPE $VVV solana:JUPyiwrYJFskUPiHa7hkeR8VUtAeFoSYbKedZNsDvCN Save the list.

Still no bias on this market. I agree it's overheated. But it can keep grinding up in this choppy format too. Leaning toward the scenario on the chart, though probably with a shallower correction. Ideal path: push higher, finish the impulse, drop to 81,500, then lower. That's where I'd start looking for an entry. Busy week ahead. In a market like this, the main thing is not doing anything stupid.

Everyone was scared of the $1.3B $HYPE unlock. Price went up 5%. The team didn't dump into the market. They sold OTC to institutions instead. Two things that just got confirmed: → The team is sensible. They need money for operations, but they won't shoot themselves in the foot. → Everyone wants to hold $HYPE. Buyers absorbed $320M of this unlock without blinking — while every ETF combined has raised $350M, all time. Winners average winners. $HYPE is the proof.

Robinhood Chain is at the lows. Dead, or just a correction? The timeline split into two camps and I'm honestly not on either side yet. The bull case: Robinhood is a billion-dollar shop that figured out how to play this game and handled the first hype wave fine. Standard change of hands from here, new narratives, off we go. The bear case: nothing fundamentally new got built. Volume went back to the usual places, and that's the whole story. Which can mean months of grinding sideways. Lows are not an entry. They can always knock from below. The one thing that could move this is the Robinhood Summit. Depends entirely on what gets announced and where the focus lands. If the Summit actually moves price, a 50-70% correction across the chain is a great entry. But I want confirmation that a catalyst exists before touching it. A lot of people are sitting on full bags right now, and weak announcements turn that into a sell-the-news event fast. Not rushing. Waiting for the Summit to show its hand.

$1.3B of $HYPE unlocks in 16 hours. Should you be scared? 14.17M tokens. That's 1.4% of supply, 2.7% of the cap. The unlock itself will probably land softer than the headline, same as every time. The team historically claims very little, and buybacks and staking sit on the other side of it. The real risk isn't the unlock. It's the positioning around it. My base case: elevated volatility, a 5-10% pullback like August, trend intact. The bad version needs three things at once — visible whale selling, a weak broad market, and a liquidation chain in lending. Any one alone isn't enough.

Binance just listed $HYPE spot. The last holdout folded. Not to the price, to the product.

I've seen enough portfolios this month to say it plainly: most of you have the exact same three problems. → 20 positions, none of them opened with a target → most are underwater and some are never coming back to breakeven → zero majors, zero actual performers That's not investing. That's collecting. Only $BTC survives buy-and-forget for ten years. Alts are speculation, and speculation has to be taken off the table. There's one way out of a book like that, and nobody wants to hear it: sell the trash and start over. It'll feel like locking in the loss. But you locked it in months ago.

Just another Monday if you're long. → $BTC above 85k → DOUBLETOP Vault PnL closing in on 900k → $HYPE lining up its run at 100 Some traders are already hunting shorts up here. I'm not self-sabotaging by trading against the market. Fading the trend is a mistake. Trimming some spec bags is not.

Can confirm. This is my full-time job. For everyone else, there's the DOUBLETOP vault. app.hyperliquid.xyz/vaults/0…

Next thing I'm waiting on: a new high. Somewhere around 83k, maybe a bit above. That's where I want to make the decision, not before. I'm allowing for the fakeout: break the high, then flush back to 74-70k. Wouldn't surprise me. But I'm not trading that far ahead. After 83k it's either chop or a correction, and I'll read it live. No plan needed for a level we haven't reached yet.

Dead simple pattern, but works anyway.

ARC mainnet is a mess right now. That's not a reason to skip it, it's a reason to wait. I'm watching since launch, not rushing. → the timing is brutal → USDC slipped onto the chain before the official mainnet announcement, so the scams were already set up → trenching is painful Going off the @RobinhoodCrypto experience: after the first impulse of activity came a pullback. The decent projects retraced and did NOT rug, while the obvious rugs surfaced right away. So I'm taking the safer position for now. What I'd especially want to see is official accounts interacting on X. That's how we get the RH pattern. Shortlist, by RH analogy (NFA, please DYOR): $ARGUS (@Arguspad) — $PONS $AI (@Longdotsupply) — $LONG $BANCOR — $CASHCAT Be careful. Don't rush. Save the list. Best meme breakdown I've seen on ARC so far 👇

The paradigm for what actually pumps has changed. I started saying this last year with $HYPE: revenue has to flow back into the token. A year on, plenty of projects adapted. Plenty didn't move at all. Watching that play out taught me something that took longer than it should have: The project and the token are two different things. Great team. Real product. Shipping every week. And the token still bleeds, because none of that value has any reason to end up in it. Stop researching companies. Start researching claims on cash flow.

I'm f*cking bullish. Nearly 80% of the book is in the market. $BTC is still more than 50k below its high. Buy one now and that's 50k+ per coin over the next couple of years. And we're one headline from 90k. CLARITY passing, or another liquidity move like the Treasury announcement. Midterm and longterm, you want to be allocated.