Housing chart person. Former Capital Economics & Treasury Select Committee bod. All views my own.
London
Joined October 2009
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BoE seems to be suggesting house prices will remain broadly flat in the near term despite rate surge. They cite "indicators", but refer to NW + Hfx. Those *indices* use price that are already agreed. We're much more likely to see further house price falls in next 6-12 months
Hansen Lu retweeted
The key feature of a new tax is that people’s tax bills shouldn’t be higher if they move house more. We want people to move houses for better jobs, bigger homes to have kids, to downsize, etc. Taxing that moving around is probably the single worst thing the tax system does atm.
Hansen Lu retweeted
This is the best one-paragraph explanation for what's gone wrong with our institutions:
Hansen Lu retweeted
New video presenting my updated US forecast
Since I see US as undergoing an economic regime shift, my macroeconomic outlook is different from many. Any growth in 2025-26 will be due to fiscal excess. Inflation will be high whether recession or not.
youtu.be/zdQI_84-7hU 1/4
Hansen Lu retweeted
Writing today's "Don't panic" newsletter - just a passing observation, you'd be amazed at how hard it is type from the fetal position
Hansen Lu retweeted
DeepSeek and what happened yesterday: Probably the largest positive tfp shock in the history of the world.
Hansen Lu retweeted
One of the more successful anti-homicide efforts was when the Baltimore PD just permanently tailed known murders to just get some charge on them that would get them off the streets.
Hansen Lu retweeted
As such, we should be cautious about hailing rising wealth as a ‘good’ thing. Where extractive rentier dynamics are widespread, it really isn’t
In the UK, it’s clear that society as a whole would be better off if wealth hadn’t ballooned so much (in a welfare sense)
Hansen Lu retweeted
NEW: Generative AI is already taking white collar jobs
An ingenious study by @xianghui90 @oren_reshef @Zhou_Yu_AI looked at what happened on a huge online freelancing platform after ChatGPT launched last year.
The answer? Freelancers got fewer jobs, and earned much less
Hansen Lu retweeted
In conclusion:
Stop saying we send too many people to university, and start saying we’re not creating enough graduate-quality jobs. End of rant.
Here’s my column in full (free to read for the first 300 clicks) on.ft.com/3MljMEl
Hansen Lu retweeted
Other countries have the same rise in graduate numbers without the same decline in graduate earnings, because they’ve created good jobs.
When people say Britain sends too many people to uni, they’re saying we’re not a country where skilled people can expect to find skilled jobs.
Hansen Lu retweeted
Buy-to-Let finances for a 70% loan-to -value investor went into the red for the first time since 2007 in Q2 of this year. With limited tax relief and higher mortgage costs it has become the domain of the cash rich.
Hansen Lu retweeted
I have a few things to say about the latest IMF forecasts about the UK economy but before we get to them can we all please admire the prettiest chart I’ve ever seen in an IMF World Economic Outlook, showing the evolution and breadth of inflation over time...
Hansen Lu retweeted
Why is headline #inflation so much higher in the #UK than in the US?
ICYMI, here are my answers... 🤓
1. measurement differences (esp. the treatment of owner-occupied housing)
2. timing (which is largely about the monetary cycle)
This chart adjusts for both these factors 👇
Hansen Lu retweeted
The economy is in the midst of structural change, and interest rates are now higher. What should the natural rate of interest be? RSM chief economist @JoeBrusuelas offers his insights. rsm.buzz/44YRxSk
Look past the "rapid" wage growth stories today. The most timely PAYE wage data - which is one month ahead - now show declining wages in July and August. PAYE data is a leading indicator of headline (AWE) wages, suggesting labour market may be coming off the boil.
Hansen Lu retweeted
This is really important. It’s concerning that big calls are being made in September based on data (eg ave weekly earnings growth) from July. Using PAYE data is one option but we need a raft of real time metrics (and models trained on them).
100% this 👇. There is huge underlying demand for homes. You can see this in the rental market data and resilience in prices despite rising rates. Unemployment is still low and wages have surged. Sales are low because buyers can't stomach current prices.
Just an idea but if you drop your prices you'll find there are millions who will buy your product! 👷🏻♂️ This puff about there being no demand is nonsense. (£) ft.com/content/143b8af4-2904…
