Niv Goren

unusualbreakouts.com now have charts and theme detection became much stronger

$RSP / $SPY back to levels where buying breakouts works

Many breakouts traders talk about breadth - when the index is up but most stocks aren't breakouts fail. So I backtested it with actual numbers. This is what I found: • RSP/SPY down in 20 days → breakouts lost money • when 80% or more of S&P500 stocks above 50sma -breakouts don't work. • when 80% or more of S&P500 stocks above 50 sma - breakouts don't work. unusualbreakouts.com/learn/f…

by overfitting and loosing their account

Stanley Druckenmiller is famous for saying that earnings move individual stocks, but liquidity moves the market. I listened to many of his public speeches and came out with a macro score that represents his views. His macro score took my b/o strategy backtest from 22% to 33% CAGR. But only on top of individual stock fundementals. What macro parameters have an edge? 1. Financial conditions - 3-month change in the dollar, the 10-year yield, oil, credit spreads (HYG vs IEF) and the S&P. Each one moving the wrong way costs points. 2. Excess liquidity - M2 money supply growth minus industrial production growth. Money growing faster than the economy spills into assets. 3. The Fed - A rate cut in the last 6 months scores 3. A recent hike scores 0. QE adds, QT subtracts. 4. Companies and sector cycle - Fixed at neutral. Reading earnings calls point-in-time wasn't possible, so they never move the score. Full research with backtest results: unusualbreakouts.com/learn/f…

Never short before the teleport candle, only after $BIYA