20+ years of advice and feedback starting, failing, starting again and scaling bootstrapped businesses. Founder and CEO: https://xitter.cf/t.co/8gt7D8RWxw Launch Potato
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Joined December 2021
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I started and failed at 4 businesses in my 20s. Today I’m the founder $100M / year bootstrapped business here is what I learned along the way
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The banks just told Wall Street card credit is fine.
$JPM charge-offs: 2.91%.
Zoom in, and it's two different countries.
Our FinanceBuzz team mapped card delinquency across the 100 biggest U.S. cities:
Memphis: 9.0% of adults 30+ days late
Mississippi: 8.8%
Madison and San Francisco: 2.4%
A 3.75x gap depending on your zip code.
National averages hide where the pain is.
Full study in the replies
JPMORGAN $JPM Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Managed Revenue: $50.9B; +8% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $5.75 (Est. $5.90) 🔴
🔹 GAAP EPS: $5.57; +10% YoY
🔹 Fixed Income Markets: $5.4B (Est. $5.89B) 🔴
🔹 Equity Markets: $5.0B (Est. $4.5B) 🟢; +49% YoY
Segment Revenue:
🔹 Consumer & Community Banking: $21.2B; +9% YoY
🔹 Commercial & Investment Bank: $22.7B; +14% YoY
🔹 Asset & Wealth Management: $6.9B; +14% YoY
Other Q3 Metrics:
🔹 IB Fees: $3.0B (Est. $3.08B) 🔴; +14% YoY
🔹 Markets Revenue: $10.3B; +15% YoY
🔹 Managed NII: $27.1B (Est. $26.84B) 🟢; +13% YoY
🔹 Total Deposits: $1.6T; +8% YoY
🔹 Total Loans: $1.6T; +10% YoY
🔹 AUM: $5.2T; +13% YoY
🔹 Client Assets: $7.9T; +15% YoY
Financials:
🔹 Net Income: $15.3B; +6% YoY
🔹 Book Value per Share: $132.30 (Est. $135.38) 🔴
🔹 ROTCE: 20%
🔹 Provision for Credit Losses: $2.7B
🔹 Net Charge-offs: $2.2B
🔹 Std. CET1 Ratio: 13.9%
🔹 Adv. CET1 Ratio: 14.1%
🔹 CET1 Capital: $304B
🔹 Tangible Book Value per Share: $112.64; +7% YoY
Capital Return:
🔹 Common Dividend: $1.65/share
🔹 Net Repurchases: $664M
Key Updates:
🔸 Significant item: $658M of net investment securities losses in Corporate ($0.18 decrease in EPS)
🔸 Cash and marketable securities: $1.5T
Comments:
🔸 “although activity did moderate somewhat during the quarter.”
🔸 “we reduced share repurchases this quarter.”
Card charge-offs at JPM fell to 2.91%. BofA 3.22%. Citi guiding ~4%. The banks are telling you card credit is healthy.
Here’s the same story from the acquisition side.
One top-5 issuer in last month:
60% click to application
51% application to approval
30% click to approval
$124 revenue per click
Lower charge-offs usually mean issuers lean back into acquisition.
We see it in the approval data before it shows up in an earnings deck.
I think one of the quotes I’ve heard.
“America is the best place to make money, the rest of the world is the best place to spend it”
Over 95% of our growth is organic.
This post is 100% why we’re buying not selling.
Bending Spoons is trading at close to 10x revenue and 40x EBITDA on ~30% growth (which is almost entirely inorganic) and holds ~$4b in debt
Every megafund is telling companies that are growing 30% organically with zero debt that they are worth 2x revenue and 6x EBITDA
Update on the “most hated Mag 7” trade.
Backtested it over 10 years: every month, buy the Mag 7 stock with the worst 3, 6 and 12-month returns. Hold. Repeat. It beat the S&P 500 by 7x.
So I had Claude build the bot and pushed it to Vercel.
First trade, Oct 1: $TSLA was the laggard. Up 7% in week one.
One trade a month. I don’t think about it, I just execute it.
Checkout the data in comments
Listened to the @davidsenra Bending Spoons podcast last month and thought: I want to bet on these guys.
Didn’t.
Oops.
Berkshire now has a $1.3B position in Bending Spoons.
Stock is up 38% (to $52) on news that Berkshire bought $330M via private placement at $33/share
$BSP
Been trying to get sub70 in Hyrox since started two years ago.
Yesterday I finally ditched pro weights for an open workout.
locked it in.
TIME (For Time) - 1:09:58
- Run (1km): 4:46
- Ski (1km): 4:05
- Run (1km): 5:00
- Sled Push (50m): 2:38
- Run (1km): 5:14
- Sled Pull (50m): 4:39
- Run (1km): 5:09
- Burpee Broad Jump (80m): 3:44
- Run (1km): 5:09
- Row (1km): 4:38
- Run (1km): 5:08
- KB Farmers Carry (200m): 1:37
- Run (1km): 5:02
- Sandbag Lunge (100m): 4:20
- Run (1km): 5:01
- Wall Balls (100 reps): 3:48
Over the weekend, my company turned 13!
We started this business as a test to see if we could build an incubator, which continually evolved into the business it is today.
I was ecstatic 1 year in, I felt very proud of the revenue we generated.
52 quarters later, we now do that year 1 revenue every 2-3 days.
It’s not always easy but when it’s good god damn it, it’s fun.
The Most Hated Mag 7 does incredibly well, outperforming SPY dramatically.
But there was an even better trade.
Monthly buys of $NVDA since 2015 would return 2,465.46%
Easy to pick in reverse.
MOST HATED MAG-7
The @LumidaWealth team did a longer-term backtest from 2015 of @pitdesi's strategy.
Here are the findings*
(1) It works on a longer time frame going back to 2015.
(2) Results from 2015 beat equal weight Mag 7.
(3) The effect is bigger than 'owning Mag 7'
We will add this to the Lumida Invest app and let you subscribe to the strategy.
Charts below...
Nice job Sheel!
*excludes tx costs in re-balancing, and tax
What happens to Muse, Instinct and every other agent if Google decides to stop allowing Gmail access?
43 here.
Daughter turner 2 last week.
We waited because we wanted to build the business, see the world.
And we weren’t sure we wanted to be parents.
We almost didn’t do it.
But fuck I’m so glad we did.
I don’t think I ever enjoyed something more.
It’s insane work, but it’s amazing.
Also you are so cooked, if you think she has you wrapped around your finger now.
Wait until you hear “dada play”
Enjoy it!
Well, this is officially peak life as a man.
Been a dad for less than 12 hours. Haven’t slept in 2 days. As a mf who has basically done it all and seen it all by 29, I’m telling you…becoming a father is the peak.
You don’t need the millions. You don’t need the cars, the watches, the businesses. If you have ever held your own son or daughter you’re already in the 1%.
If you don’t have kids? You’re unfortunately missing out on the greatest blessing there is. I really don’t know how else to say it tbh.
My daughter in my arms. My superwoman of a fiancée in the bed sleeping.
Just feeling these little fingers grasp my pinky to soothe herself to sleep is worth more than any deal or any car or any business.
Makes every single one of these unread emails or business “problems” I have feel completely insignificant.
Sure, one can love the game. Purpose, passion, philosophy, politics, these are important facets of living a full life as a man.
But fatherhood?
This is the peak.
