Greg Ip (@greg_ip) header
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Washington, D.C.
Joined January 2011
Photo by Greg Ip (@greg_ip)Photo by Greg Ip (@greg_ip)Photo by Greg Ip (@greg_ip)Photo by Greg Ip (@greg_ip)Photo by Greg Ip (@greg_ip)Photo by Greg Ip (@greg_ip)Photo by Greg Ip (@greg_ip)Photo by Greg Ip (@greg_ip)Photo by Greg Ip (@greg_ip)Photo by Greg Ip (@greg_ip)
Fact: 84% of the House districts Dems are on track to flip this year contain a Cracker Barrel, and just 59% are home to a Whole Foods. By contrast, 67% of the districts Dems flipped in 2018 contained a Whole Foods, and just 56% were home to a Cracker Barrel.
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Greg Ip retweeted
A 🧵on the curious case of Americans electing Muslims to Congress - with comparisons to India and Pakistan. Only 1.5% of the US population is Muslim, yet Americans just elected 8 Muslims to the 535-member Congress - that's also 1.5% of all seats. This is somewhat of a puzzle. 1/6
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Greg Ip retweeted
This is a smart thought that DC policymakers have yet to fully process ...
The dominant model people use to think about AI's effect on the labor market is automation. But perhaps commoditization is a better model. Automation implies job apocalypse. Commoditization implies plentiful jobs with low wages. 1/
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Greg Ip retweeted
Did more centrist or leftist Dems swing Congress? Results so far: Swing of House seats R-to-D: -Candidates backed by mods: 26 -Candidates backed by Bernie: 3 -Backed by both: 3 Senate R-to-D: -Mods: 5 -Bernie: 1 -Both: 1 from @greg_ip
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Greg Ip retweeted
Greg Ip (@greg_ip) is one of my favorites at WSJ. For those concerned that the blunami is going to produce far left policies, you may want to think again. "The startling rise of candidates backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, both Democratic socialists, may leave the impression that the incoming Congress will be hellbent on a far-left agenda of wealth taxes, Medicare for All and a Green New Deal." "Not so fast. Judging by the candidates who delivered their majorities, Democrats may be moving toward the center." As an economist, the worst thing Dems could do would be to try to reverse all of the positive economic policy by the Trump administration (yes, there are some) & increase uncertainty for US businesses. We'll see if Schumer and Jefferies can surf the blunami wave without wiping out. BTW, I'm putting together my outlook on the election and it's impact on the economy, policy & markets. Will send after some of the House races finish and dust settles. wsj.com/politics/elections/a…
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Replying to @greg_ip
LETTER TO THE EDITOR Greg Ip is right that moderate Democrats were the majority-makers. But that does not establish his larger suggestion that the Democratic Party is moving toward the center. Those are two different questions. If you want to know what kind of Democrat can win a Republican or purple district, study flipped seats. Naturally, candidates capable of persuading Republican and independent voters will tend to be more moderate. But if you want to know where the Democratic Party itself is moving, the better laboratory is its firmly held districts—places where Democratic voters can choose among Democrats without worrying that a Republican will win. There, the picture looks very different. As of Friday, eight of the ten DSA-endorsed candidates for the U.S. House had already won their races. Several progressive and democratic-socialist candidates displaced more established Democrats in safely Democratic territory. In other words, where Democrats needed the political center, they nominated candidates capable of reaching it. Where they did not, Democratic voters repeatedly chose candidates further to the left. That is the more revealing result. In competitive districts, the electorate constrained Democrats toward the center. In Democratic strongholds, where those constraints disappeared, voters showed us their unconstrained preference—and it was further left. That is consistent with the longer-term data: Democratic voters today identify as liberal at record levels, after decades of substantial leftward movement. The 2026 election therefore looks less like a Democratic return to moderation than a continuation of the party’s leftward ideological movement wherever electoral geography permits it. Electoral reach is not ideological direction. Moderates may have built the Democratic majority at its edges, while the party’s secure core continued moving in precisely the opposite direction. If we want to know who is shaping the future of the Democratic Party, its strongholds—not its flips—may tell us much more.
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Greg Ip retweeted
There's a lot to focus on right now, but "The richest man to ever live just spent $200 million to support the Republican Senate candidate in Texas, and his man lost by double-digits in a statewide wipeout" is a completely insane sentence. Put another way, the most expensive US Senate race before 2020 was $200 million. *One guy* spent that amount in Texas, and it doesn't seem to have made any difference. It might have hurt in a kind of Streisand effect way, in that the spending level was seen as obscene to people sympathetic to the argument that billionaires shouldn't "buy" elections. The implications here seem pretty interesting! Especially re the limits of billionaire political power and/or the diminishing returns of money in politics.
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The Dem caucuses in both houses of Congress will be more moderate next term than this one @greg_ip writes wsj.com/politics/elections/a…
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Practically no one read this when I published it a couple of months ago but I'm going to immodestly propose that everyone who wants to build a data center or whose livelihood depends on them getting built should read it now: wsj.com/tech/ai/data-center-…
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One of the more interesting stories from yesterday will be how Florida and Texas - two states with similar political climates - ended up with such different results. A big part of that comes down to the GOP leadership in each. There were missteps in both, but... One state kept at least a slight buffer of regional independence from the White House's political operations, succeeded in keeping sleaze like Fishback off its ticket, kept state and local government focused on relatively conventional conservative issues, and managed to keep enough Hispanic voters in the coalition to win. The other state tried to turn itself into MAGA central, tried to import JD Vance style economic populism into a part of the country that wanted nothing to do with that, made sleaze like Paxton the face of its statewide campaign, and actively drove Hispanic voters (as well as other minorities as per Bo French) out of the coalition by sticking them in the eye in the months before the election.
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WSJ's @greg_ip : Health insurance is the sleeper inflation issue: wsj.com/finance/investing/he…
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a big reason why i expect the new congress’ agenda to feature a lot of “affordability” measures, by way of ACA premium subsidies, broader medicaid eligibility, and expanded tax credits.
Health insurance is the sleeper inflation issue. Premiums up 5%, contributions even more; could explain sub-par wage growth. Plus, thoughts on Bill Nordhaus; @jasonfurman and Goldman on AI in my newsletter today: wsj.com/finance/investing/he…
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I’ve seen enough. I don’t have an election call or anything. I’ve just seen enough.
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It's been the trade since WWII. With wages frozen, the War Labor Board ruled in 1943 that employer insurance payments weren't wages, and the 1954 tax code made them tax-free for good. So pay comes partly as premiums, and when premiums jump, the raise is what shrinks.
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I can't tell if people think the pre-Trump GOP is returning, or if America is going to become a one-party state, but honestly neither of those things is likely to happen.
To my MAGA friends: Enjoy this weekend. Seriously. After Tuesday, your movement is finished. That feeling of powerlessness you remember? It’s coming back. And you’ll spend years looking back at this moment, furious that you had power—and flushed it down Trump’s golden toilet. Never to return
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The NYT and WSJ — the two major destination news publishers with stable, profitable business models — are going to have even more insane moats as social/search traffic enters its final death spiral.
Reddit call was absolutely fascinating. Everyone should listen to it as a bellwether for where the internet is going - AI Mode is increasingly default Google experience - AI Mode provides rich info and data in line, less incentive to leave search - AI Mose incentivizes dialog, Google wants to keep you engaged to serve more ads at each turn - Google will milk search for as much revenue as possible as they transition from a search company to a cloud service and chip company - As traffic from humans becomes more scarce this will put Google in an increasingly adversarial position to the rest of the internet - This is a massive headwind to all media type companies who are not destinations - This is a massive headwind to all content-driven go-to-market motions especially in the SMB. You have seen companies like HubSpot and Monday.com get crushed by this funnel collapse We are entering the end game - a knife fight for the remaining and dwindling volume of human traffic on the internet
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Good - yet depressing - article. Neither party can run on deficit reduction because their own record is terrible. These politicians are following voters who want endless tax cuts & spending hikes and will vote out anyone who dares to stop the debt binge. wsj.com/economy/fiscal-hawks…
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All of these countries have access to the same LLMs. This raises the likelihood that what’s behind the US productivity boost is less about AI-augmented task productivity & more about something else like mechanical AI capex effects… or something besides AI entirely.
This quoted post is unavailable.
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Greg Ip retweeted
Decent chance the Anthropic IPO serves as a year-end liquidity clearing event but it’s hard to feel great about them trying to raise up to $100 billion when OpenAI is looking in the couch cushions for money and a Q4 Fed hike looms: wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-raise…
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Greg Ip retweeted
Don’t look now, but not only are Democrats on the cusp of a big midterm night, they’re on the verge of electing a bunch of moderate normies who can actually win in red states. The real question is: Will anyone in the Democratic Party notice — or care?
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