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If this market turns bullish have your cattle marketed by the end of July because all these bullish factors for Q1 and Q2 of 2027 will push supplies into the 3rd and 4th quarter and could put massive pressure on the market
I tend to focus on charts but cant help but look at fundamentals: More wheat + moisture = more calves not in feedyards. Wet NE, KS, TX, IA = Mud and poorer performance = More time or less weight. 500K less calves born in 2026 + Heifer Retention (200k-500k) = up to 1M less
Markets try and "accept" these bull bear lines. What we want to see is a break above and it will look like an inverted head and shoulders pattern. When we test this level and if we cannot get above the level it will be a major warning sign that the broader market is bearish
The bull bear line is 3.48850 if we get above this level I think feeders have one more round of higher in them. I have labeled 3 possible upside targets to watch but we must get above our line and even back test it for confirmation before going higher
I think beans have the potential to fill the gap before correcting. My bias is the low from this week needs to hold in order to move higher. Looks like a traditional high in grains come spring. A more normal seasonal
Cleaned up corn chart. I'm thinking the larger rally in corn has been pushed off in time with this sharp pull back. If we would slip down to 4.20 we could re build the momentum but I prefer to see corn hold here and rally to 6.50 area this spring and pull back into fall
Should have taken the short trade here - They beat it up good this week. Cleaned up chart - We identified the high perfectly. Major Bull/Bear line at 229.7. If we can break above I believe it will be bullish into year end and we see something in the 2.50's
Even though I think cattle have found a level of resistance I would not short it. Puts if necessary otherwise look for a spot to re-enter long
Cattle are getting very overbought and I suspect we have found a short term high resistance area. The best thing the market can do is chop around in a 3-5 dollar trading range so the market can get in a more neutral position. Feels like a buy the rumor sell the fact.
This is the area I suspected the cattle market would make it to with ease. Now we need a bullish cattle on feed report to breakout. If we get the breakout I have labeled the next upside objective towards the end of December. Placements in my area have been low = Bullish COF?
At 3.50 on feeders price is going to bump its head on the failed trendline and the 200 DMA. I suspect Fridays COF is bullish with low placements again so we could gap above the 200 DMA and back above the trendline - If that happens it gets wild. Can reverse there too.
I took profit on my cattle long positions this week. Want to see what happens at the trend line. If we can pop through it I will get back in on the back test of the trendline
The way price interacts with the trendline will be key. 100 day and 200 day Moving averages will be Key. If we get above the 200 day it becomes support for the rally
Corn is flirting with lower support in a must hold situation. I think if we get this turned around 6.30 is a minimum target with 6.70 being really strong resistance
At one point I said I was surprised beans have not corrected to 12.55 (neckline). This week they did and we really want to see it hold or the pattern gets muddy. This next move higher should be aggressive but we might grind sideways till that happens
I'm actually surprised we haven't fallen to 12.57, once we put in a new high we should move to 15 very quickly. A Brazil weather problem we see 20 and a Brazil+US problem we get 25. No Brazil or US weather problem back to 11.
I posted about 4.76 prior to the USDA report and we got a bearish report and we got 4.76. 4.76 was tested 5x before it broke out and USDA gave us the backtest. I think the target is 6.48 in Nov for a test of the 62% retracement
Important area in Cattle coming up. 2.29675 level needs to accept and don't expect it on the first try. 100 day, 50% retracement, 200 day, downsloping trendline all at play. If the market can get above it = massive support. COF next week and it should be bullish
