Father, Family Historian, Woodworker, Cook, Traveler, and Hokie.

Virginia, USA
Joined May 2016
Reintroductions. I’ve had a few life changes recently: 1. I married a great girl who joins me on my adventures. 2. I’m conducting a personal experiment to see if I like “not working”. I’m a proud Hokie. I founded a consulting business in 2009, and in 2025 worked for a client before resigning 15 months later. I’m not sure if I’ll like “not working” but I’m giving it an honest try!! I also really enjoyed my job and solving problems for my clients, so we will see. My recent posts here are about my transition from working into a mostly-retired lifestyle. You’ll see a lot of family, friends, golf, travel, and hobbies. I also write about interesting family history, which I’m in the process of documenting for future generations. Thus the handle: “Glimpse Of Us” Have any questions? Ask away!
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GlimpseOfUs retweeted
Meet our Incarcerated Writers’ Project (IWP) team: Syd, Gemmalee, Serena, and Mickey! Do you have anything in common with our wonderful phoebe staff? 🧐
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Remember that 60% out the federal government’s current annual spend is for social programs (e.g., Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, SNAP, etc.). And people are still asking for: - Free education (college) - Free healthcare - Free housing - Universal income Most of this was once started by well-meaning people trying to “help”. But once these programs start they never end, are riddled with fraud, and get ever-more expensive to run/police/defend. It will never end.
This made me very angry 🤬🤬 My wife's friend (who is an artist) says the government needs to tax home owners significantly more so there are increased funding for artist grants because it's impossible for full time artists to pursue their passion and afford to live in Vancouver right now. When i heard this, i walked away... do people really think like this? You think all of us actually want to go to work and not pusue our passion?
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Pool winterization completed. It takes about 4 hours to drain the pool below the skimmers. I did that yesterday. Today, it took 3 hours to blow out the lines, drain everything, put everything away, and install the cover. We will open again in late April or early May.
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GlimpseOfUs retweeted
Hey @grok, which of these five causes the most damage to the human body, and why? 🤔
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Uh huh….
Trump: I know more about inflation, I know more about everything than anybody in this room. Anybody anywhere in the world.
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In Virginia, that would be Highland County.
Here is the best county in every state to live a quiet and peaceful life in.
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What a tragedy that far-left/ultra-left radicals, anarchists, hooligans/casseurs, and opportunistic looters would burn this down.
This is what the barbarians just burned down in France.
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I don’t see how these later AI investments are going to payoff at the levels they expect.
BREAKING: Meta, Amazon, Microsoft and Google are expected to pour $750 billion into capital spending this year, mostly on AI data centers, per Bloomberg. That’s enough to write a $5,500 check to every household in America. It’s up more than 80% from last year’s $410 billion.
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What did I say? The while game, play the whole game. Tech is out-scored by 14 points in the first 3 minutes of the third quarter.
I want to see the Hokies play the WHOLE GAME with this intensity. The teams playing for the National Championship play the whole game, always. 0-7 Virginia Tech leads!
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I want to see the Hokies play the WHOLE GAME with this intensity. The teams playing for the National Championship play the whole game, always. 0-7 Virginia Tech leads!
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Watching SMU, Florida, and Indiana all at once. Virginia Tech will be full screen at 3:30pm! Let’s go!!
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I’ve never seen this and think it’s incredible!!
i HATE how an engineer invented the correct way to write recipes like 20 years ago and nobody else ever used it
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I make investing exceptions based on risks. I generally believe in being well diversified with a mix of stocks and bonds. I cannot always see the future clearly. But I will make exceptions during extraordinary times based on risks. Examples: 1999 - After conversations with coworkers about Iridium and demonstrating that they could capture nearly the entire mobile market and still not overcome its capital costs, and looking at the crazy valuations of the dotcom stocks, I concluded investors had lost their minds. Went 80% into long bonds and 20% “old economy” stocks. Until 2003 or about 3 years. Until the GFC, I heavily favored bonds over stocks because I had lost trust in the stock market. 2010-12 - With 30y bonds trading at 2% and short duration trading at nearly zero, I concluded that I wasn’t okay investing at those yields. Bonds couldn’t really go lower and I was willing to forego that capital return if they did. I knew bonds yields could increase and generate huge capital losses. So I completely exited the bond market and have been out of bonds including to today. 2020 - I was in the middle of a divorce and with this new COVID stuff making so many headlines overseas that I couldn’t risk market losses at that moment and went 100% cash in February until our assets had been divided. My attorney thought I was crazy, but I was right. I bought back into the markets near the lows and ride everything back to its highs. Turned out to be a great decision. 2026 - This year 10 stocks represent 40% of the S&P500. Everything is down 20-50%. Throughout this year I’ve slowly rotated out of “market value” indexes into “equal weighted” indexes to reduce my exposure to these 10 stocks. I’m still not done. My thesis was if AI was going to be successful, then it would help reduce costs for all companies. I’d rather invest in 5,000 stocks materially off their market highs than just 10 stocks whose valuations were in the trillions. I see more opportunity with the other stocks than with NVIDIA and the other crew. So that’s 4x in 25 years that I’ve made exceptions to my general investment philosophy based on risks. Back in 2005-07, I did make a lot of noise to coworkers and friends about underwriting practices for home loans. I was convinced it wouldn’t end well. An old Real Estate Broker told me years later that I was the only person he ever heard during those boom days shouting about these risks. BUT, I didn’t make any investment changes because of this. Probably my biggest investing regret. I didn’t foresee what it would do across the entire industry. So at every other time, I am definitely a set-it-and-forget-it investor. Right now I see bond yields rising, even if a recession temporarily lowers them. I also see the potential for a negotiated new monetary system, because with $40T and a Congress unwilling to reduce its social and welfare expenses that something needs to give. Bond yields rising and our debts/deficits are connected. I am also very skeptical that all the capital investments being made in AI will payoff as expected for investors. And I see that we are in a recession of sorts with most stocks down big with the exception of the AI stocks (which support all the indexes). I don’t think this ends well. But, again, I’d rather buy non-AI companies at a discount right now, as I see less risk.
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Where does this all end?
BREAKING: The US has recorded its 25th straight fiscal year in a row of operating at a deficit, per CNBC
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What a fiscal mess. The Federal Government spent $7.4T last year: 60% of that went towards entitlements and social programs (like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps/SNAP, income security, and related programs) 14% services the debt 19% defense and veterans 7% everything else ($0.50T) Either we need massive cuts to social programs (which I find unlikely to happen) or massive increases in taxes for everyone. Or we keep printing money and watch inflation skyrocket.
BREAKING: The US deficit widened to $1.99 trillion for FY2026, up +12% from the $1.78 trillion recorded last year. Spending rose by +6%, to $7.4 trillion, and NET interest officially rose above $1 trillion. Debt servicing costs are now their third largest expense for the US government, only behind Social Security and Medicare. This marks the fourth-straight year with the US fiscal deficit around $2 trillion. The deficit spending crisis is out of control.
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How do you easily maintain or fix such a car if a literal rocket scientist is needed? Do we have that many?
BREAKING: Tesla's Roadster flips off a ramp and hovers back to the ground. "Flying cars are real."
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The Census Bureau published its annual report on U.S. income showing median retirement incomes. Virginia’s median retirement income is $66,450 annually. Does this seem too low? It seems low to me. boldin.com/retirement/averag…
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Played a round of golf today. Shot a 96, which is good for me.
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Social Security fix: Just keep raising the age to the point that no one lives that long. Then kill the program. For example, anyone born in 2000 and later receives benefits at 75. Anyone born 2010 and later receives benefits at 85. Anyone born 2020 and later receives benefits at 95. At the same time, reduce taxes paid until zero. By 2115, nearly no one would receive benefits. That’s how I propose to fix it.
Let's get something straight. Just because the government stole your money out of your paycheck for 40+ years (and they did) does not mean that you should be entitled to money from mine as a form of restitution. You should have been an adult and planned for your own retirement. It is not my job to bankroll yours out of my wages, nor is it any other young American's. If you built your retirement plan around a government program, that's on you. Ya should've pulled yourself up by your bootstraps. You had multiple options: save your money, open a Roth IRA, max a 401(k), invest in stocks or precious metals, etc. Nobody stopped ya. The money that you “paid into” Social Security (SS) is gone. Gone like the wind, buddy. It's gone like a freight train. Gone like yesterday. Gone like a '59 Cadillac. Gone like all the good things that ain't ever comin' back. That's because you paid a TAX (ever heard of the FICA?) and the money forcibly withheld from your paycheck went into the “general welfare” fund. It was not set aside just for you in a private lockbox with your name on it or invested in the stock market. It was spent the second it landed in the hands of the greedy bastards running our government. They way SS works is that the money “contributed” by newer “investors” is used to pay older “investors.” It operates like a private sector Ponzi scheme, but only it is involuntary and mandated by law (which, if anything, makes it worse than a Ponzi scheme). And if anyone in the private sector attempted to set up a retirement plan for their employees like this, he or she would be handcuffed and sent to prison. The money collected by payroll taxes were taken from one group (workers) and handed to another (retirees), exactly like public welfare, exactly like Medicaid, and exactly like any other wealth transfer program. People will claim that the program ran a surplus for decades, but they haven't been held in cash since 1939. By law, any surplus must be lent to the federal government by purchasing Treasury bonds. In return, the “trust fund” gets a stack of IOUs. But IOUs are not real money. It's just a piece of paper essentially stating that “The Treasury owes SS 'x' amount.” As I said, the actual money collected by the payroll tax was spent the moment it arrived. The so-called “trust fund” contains no physical cash, no gold, and no stocks. So, when it comes time to pay benefits to retirees, the federal government has to redeem that bond with real cash, which means either (a) borrowing money, (b) raising taxes, or (c) cutting spending to generate a budget surplus. According to a 2024 Cato Institute analysis, the SS retirement and survivors program relied on ~$1.08 trillion in Treasury interest, bond redemptions, and transfers to cover cash-flow shortfalls between 2010 and 2023. In 2023, payroll taxes covered just 85.2% of the SS program costs. Taxes on benefits covered another 4%, leaving a 10.8% gap financed through trust fund interest and bond redemptions. Cato's analysis also suggests that the program is projected to add $4.1 trillion to federal deficits over the 2024–33 period, including associated interest costs. 🔗cato.org/sites/cato.org/file… So, when someone says, “I paid into it,” what they're really saying is, “I paid a tax, the government spent it, and in exchange I got the government promise to tax future workers to pay me back.” If our payroll tax dollars were actually invested in the market instead of funneled to current retirees, the returns would be astronomical, and it'd allow families to build generational wealth. Say you start working at age 22 and retire at age 67 (a 45-year career). Your half of the payroll tax (employee side, 6.2%) on a median income of, let's say, $50,000 is ~$3,100 a year. Invest that annually in a broad index fund at the historical market average of ~10% annual returns, and by 67 you've got ~$2.2 million. Add the employer's matching 6.2% and you're sitting on about $4.4 million. Even assuming more conservative annual returns of 6% or 8%, that combined investment would grow to $1.32 million or $2.46 million, respectively, over 45 years, before inflation, fees, and taxes. Compare those figures to what SS actually pays out, a median earner's effective return is closer to 1–2%, and for younger workers it's projected to be negative. That is, people my age will have “paid in” more than we will ever get back. What's more, if you die before your spouse does, he or she can collect your SS benefits until they die. However, neither your kids nor grandkids can. If you actually “paid into” a legitimate trust fund, there'd be money left over for them. There isn't because you paid a tax. The system benefitting you is not going to be here to sustain us. According to the 2026 Social Security Trustees Report, the retirement and survivors trust fund is projected to exhaust its reserves in 2032, after which continuing revenue would cover approximately 78% of scheduled benefits unless Congress acts. The worker-to-beneficiary ratio has cratered from roughly 16:1 at the program's start to under 3:1 today, and it keeps falling as the boomers retire and birth rates drop, the latter of which is multifactorial (e.g., families requiring less manual labor and systematic destruction of the nuclear family largely because of feminism and hookup culture (both of which are an undesired side effect of social media). 🔗heraldtribune.com/story/news… People are also living longer than ever before. In 1935 when SS was signed into law by President Franklin D. Roosevelt, average life expectancy in the U.S. was ~61 years and the retirement age was set to 65. In layman terms, that meant the average person would not live long enough to collect SS benefits, and if one did, he or she likely wouldn't collect for long. Today, however, average life expectancy in the U.S. ~80 years but the retirement age has only been raised slightly to 67 (and that's only for people born after 1960). 🔗ourworldindata.org/grapher/l… 🔗ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v76n… That means that retirement age (or really, just the age at which one should be eligible to collect benefits, not necessarily actual retirement) today should be much closer to 80. Now, even if you adjust for infant and child mortality, which were admittedly more prevalent in the 1930s, Americans who survived to age 65 in 1935 could expect to live another 12–14 years, on average. Today, someone reaching age 65 can expect to live another 19–21 years. The number of Americans age 65+ has increased from ~9% of the U.S. population in 1960 to ~18% today. Either way you square it, the minimum age at which a person should be able to collect SS benefits ought to be raised into the low-to-mid-70s, even if they retire years earlier. Here's another hard-to-swallow pill. 💊 The Supreme Court has ruled that you actually do not have any contractual right to the SS benefits you're now demanding. In Fleming v. Nestor (1960), the Court held that Social Security benefits are not an “accrued property right” and that paying the payroll tax does not create a contract with the government. 🔗supreme.justia.com/cases/fed… The Court also upheld SS as being a general welfare spending program in Helvering v. Davis (1937), treating the payroll tax and benefits payments as two legally separate things. Essentially, the Supreme Court states that the “insurance” policy was packaging, not law. 🔗supreme.justia.com/cases/fed… Your benefit is a statutory entitlement. It is a political promise that Congress can modify or eliminate at any time, and you have no legal recourse when it does. So, when you say you “paid in” and are therefore owed a check, the highest court in the land has already said that's not how it works. And spare me the “I didn't vote for this” routine. Few people alive today did as it was enacted in 1935. But your generation and the generations before you kept voting for politicians who kept this system alive. You personally may not have (and KUDOS to you if that's the case!), but you'd be an exception. Every politician who has dared touch this third rail has been severely punished for it. During the 1964 election cycle, GOP nominee Barry Goldwater proposed making SS voluntary, and the Lyndon B. Johnson campaign turned it into one of the most effective attack ads in American history. Barry lost in a landslide. 🔗time.com/archive/6832308/nat… In 2005, President George W. Bush proposed partial privatization of SS with “personal accounts.” Specifically, he suggested that young workers could choose to divert up to 4% of their payroll tax into a personal investment account that they could then pass onto their heirs. That's not complete reform, but it was better than nothing. 🔗georgewbush-whitehouse.archi… And of course, the Democrats and many Republicans shot the proposal down and ran attack ads claiming that seniors would lose all of their benefits. These ads, of course, were misleading, if not all-out fraudulent, but it worked. The backlash Bush received from seniors and the AARP was so bad that Congress never brought it to a vote and his approval numbers slid. 🔗factcheck.org/2005/02/moveon… In 2011, Texas governor Rick Perry (who I actually had the pleasure of meeting in April) called SS a “Ponzi scheme” and “monstrous lie” during the presidential GOP primary, and it sank his frontrunner status. 🔗cbsnews.com/news/rick-perry-… Any candidate who so much as whispers about raising the retirement age (or age at which one can collect the benefits) or letting young workers keep some (or all) of their payroll tax money gets branded by Republican boomers and virtually all Democrats as demonic. They say something to the effect of, “You just want to throw grandma off a cliff!” But I am not running for public office, which means I do not have to beat around the bush. I can be as open and honest about this issue as I want and the only thing it will cost me are some fans who cannot cope with the facts I outlined above. Emotional blackmail will not work with me. It didn't with the COVID Nazis. It isn't going to now. Realistically and morally, I want us to band together and look for a way out of this unsustainable system that is as painless as possible for everyone. The status quo is unacceptable and everyone knows it even if they refuse to say it out loud. However, the more I see older people (primarily boomers) double down on this government-run Ponzi scheme because they want to squeeze every last drop out of this lemon instead of making sacrifices to reduce the burden on their kids and grandkids, the more I am inclined to not care about the consequences some might face if we cut it. Deep down in my heart, however, I do have a moral compass (thanks, Mom) and I do not want to put anyone out on the street. I do not hate old people. As a matter of fact, I relate better to them because I am an old soul in a young person's body. One of my two grandmothers actually relies on SS for her retirement income (she has not been great with her money since my grandad died 16 years ago). The other one receives it, too, but definitely does not need it. But the other's situation, like anyone else in the same boat, is not taxpayers' problem. As I said, I do not hate old people. There are a lot of great old people. Many follow me here. But I do have resentment towards older generations who stared down the barrel of economic collapse and refused to do anything at all to enact or vote for reform because it personally would inconvenience them. Again, that doesn't mean you're one of those people specifically. I'm speaking in broad terms. We need to figure out how to abolish the SS scam and it needs to be bipartisan. People need to take their biases out of the equation and look at it objectively. I am not a parent, but having had wonderful parents to raise me, I cannot for the life of me understand why any parent or grandparent would not immediately do anything they could to ensure their descendants' lives are better than their own.
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