TEXAS and OKLAHOMA folks – Wednesday, September 30 will feature both locally significant flood potential AND some severe weather. Widespread 4 to 8 inch rainfall totals are likely, especially along I-35 from Oklahoma City to Dallas to Austin-San Antonio. That also includes Ardmore, Marietta, Denton, Waco and Killeen. The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted the region as having a moderate risk for flash flooding/excessive rainfall... AND we can't even rule out a couple isolated tornadoes. Hurricane Polo's remnants will be scooped up by an approaching jet stream disturbance. That will advect, or move, robust tropical moisture into the region. Plus that upper-air disturbance will provide the trigger needed to produce widespread downpours. We think a secondary surface low in Kansas will form and swing a dryline east. As dry air impinges on moisture, we'll have another line of downpours and storms form. Some of the storms could be severe, and tap into jet stream energy aloft. That could mix some momentum to the surface in the form of sporadic damaging straight-line wind gusts. And given the jet stream energy upstairs, we could have a supercell (rotating storm) or two, leading to at least an isolated tornado risk. Now we DO need this rainfall... but not all at once. Plus DFW just went 67 days without rain; when the ground is moisture-starved, it hardens over time, making it less permeable when rains return. That could actually exacerbate flood issues Wednesday/Thursday. Stay tuned and stay safe in the coming days.