🇦🇷 Put your money where your mouth is. I always trade my own money. Former institutional OTC derivatives trader in Switzerland. Ph.D. in Economics, UCLA
Buenos Aires
Joined September 2011
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Ocho años de excelencia ininterrumpidos: Asesoramiento Financiero ONLINE 👇
Ciclo diario de análisis de mercados financieros locales e internacionales + comunidad activa 24×7.
De lunes a viernes, 30 minutos al cierre del mercado (18 hs), analizamos de forma sistemática la coyuntura macro y financiera global junto a una comunidad de suscriptores.
Acceso en tiempo real a mis rotaciones de cartera: podés replicarlas, adaptarlas a tu perfil de riesgo o usarlas solo como insumo analítico.
El servicio se completa con un chat activo 24×7 para seguimiento de mercados, eventos relevantes e intercambio permanente de ideas.
Contactar [email protected]
Sherman retweeted
The AI bottleneck has changed: from infrastructure to capital👇
👉 The AI story is changing: the bottleneck is moving from infrastructure capacity to capital availability.
👉 Hyperscalers and AI companies still face massive CAPEX requirements, but higher yields are making that expansion increasingly expensive to finance.
👉 At the same time, collapsing token prices are compressing margins and reducing the cash flow available to service the enormous debt already accumulated.
👉 Less capital to finance future CAPEX + lower margins to service existing debt = a radically different AI trade.
👉 The market had been extremely long AI. Now it may be starting to price the consequences of this new bottleneck.
#QQQ #TLT
The AI bottleneck has changed: from infrastructure to capital👇
👉 The AI story is changing: the bottleneck is moving from infrastructure capacity to capital availability.
👉 Hyperscalers and AI companies still face massive CAPEX requirements, but higher yields are making that expansion increasingly expensive to finance.
👉 At the same time, collapsing token prices are compressing margins and reducing the cash flow available to service the enormous debt already accumulated.
👉 Less capital to finance future CAPEX + lower margins to service existing debt = a radically different AI trade.
👉 The market had been extremely long AI. Now it may be starting to price the consequences of this new bottleneck.
#QQQ #TLT
Sherman retweeted
The AI trading paradigm may be changing 👇
👉 The AI bottleneck may be shifting from computing capacity to the availability and cost of capital.
👉 Markets are demanding a higher risk premium on AI related corporate debt, making the massive capex cycle increasingly expensive to finance.
👉 Tech is starting to feel the pressure, while Treasuries are regaining demand as a hedge against rising corporate credit risk.
👉 If this rotation continues, Treasuries, gold and silver could emerge as the new beneficiaries of a broader flight to safety.
Sherman retweeted
The Irony of the Global Sovereign Debt Crisis and Its Mutation into an AI Corporate Debt Crisis 👇
👉 We discussed precisely this concept last night in class with the Master in Finance students at Universidad de San Andrés, while analyzing the essence of the Black-Scholes framework: the interaction between equity holders and debt holders, and the redistribution of value that occurs when the volatility, sigma, of the underlying business is endogenized.
👉 The great irony of the long end of sovereign curves is that the debt crisis is now mutating into an AI corporate debt crisis, triggering a massive safe haven bid. The US 30Y yield has collapsed almost 30bps in just three trading days, while CDS on weaker corporate credits, particularly several neocloud players, are getting literally crushed.
👉 AI originally crowded out sovereign debt. Now the trade is reversing: AI corporate credit cracks and long dated sovereign bonds rally hard on safe haven demand. Global equity, almost regardless of geography, does not seem to be a store of value right now.
👉 And suddenly, the “dead trades” of the last few months are back: sovereign bonds, gold and, of course, cash via DXY.
👉 The Treasury gets rescued while corporate equity gets crushed. Watch very closely the banks sitting behind all this AI leverage.
#TLT #DXY #GLD
The AI trading paradigm may be changing 👇
👉 The AI bottleneck may be shifting from computing capacity to the availability and cost of capital.
👉 Markets are demanding a higher risk premium on AI related corporate debt, making the massive capex cycle increasingly expensive to finance.
👉 Tech is starting to feel the pressure, while Treasuries are regaining demand as a hedge against rising corporate credit risk.
👉 If this rotation continues, Treasuries, gold and silver could emerge as the new beneficiaries of a broader flight to safety.
Sherman retweeted
AI: the bottleneck is moving to capital 👇
👉 Markets are starting to rotate from corporate risk into safe havens. Treasuries are regaining demand as a hedge, while gold and silver could benefit if pressure on real yields continues to ease.
👉 The key shift is in AI: the bottleneck is moving from chips, memory, energy and data centers to the capital required to finance them. Higher credit risk and a rising cost of capital could become the real constraint on the AI capex boom.
AI: the bottleneck is moving to capital 👇
👉 Markets are starting to rotate from corporate risk into safe havens. Treasuries are regaining demand as a hedge, while gold and silver could benefit if pressure on real yields continues to ease.
👉 The key shift is in AI: the bottleneck is moving from chips, memory, energy and data centers to the capital required to finance them. Higher credit risk and a rising cost of capital could become the real constraint on the AI capex boom.
The Irony of the Global Sovereign Debt Crisis and Its Mutation into an AI Corporate Debt Crisis 👇
👉 We discussed precisely this concept last night in class with the Master in Finance students at Universidad de San Andrés, while analyzing the essence of the Black-Scholes framework: the interaction between equity holders and debt holders, and the redistribution of value that occurs when the volatility, sigma, of the underlying business is endogenized.
👉 The great irony of the long end of sovereign curves is that the debt crisis is now mutating into an AI corporate debt crisis, triggering a massive safe haven bid. The US 30Y yield has collapsed almost 30bps in just three trading days, while CDS on weaker corporate credits, particularly several neocloud players, are getting literally crushed.
👉 AI originally crowded out sovereign debt. Now the trade is reversing: AI corporate credit cracks and long dated sovereign bonds rally hard on safe haven demand. Global equity, almost regardless of geography, does not seem to be a store of value right now.
👉 And suddenly, the “dead trades” of the last few months are back: sovereign bonds, gold and, of course, cash via DXY.
👉 The Treasury gets rescued while corporate equity gets crushed. Watch very closely the banks sitting behind all this AI leverage.
#TLT #DXY #GLD
Sherman retweeted
Anthropic Q3 revenue comes in at $16.8B vs. $11.5B in Q2, up 46% QoQ.
Not good enough.
That seems to be the market’s verdict.
QQQ is down 1% in after-hours trading and they keep crushing tech.
I wonder: has a major rotation away from tech and into cyclicals finally begun?
#DIA
Sherman retweeted
US Banks are getting crushed today. Hot inflation is putting renewed pressure on the front end of the curve, tightening financial conditions and further challenging bank profitability. Three major banks are now officially in bear-market territory, trading more than 20% below their all-time highs. The message from financials is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.👇
US Banks are getting crushed today. Hot inflation is putting renewed pressure on the front end of the curve, tightening financial conditions and further challenging bank profitability. Three major banks are now officially in bear-market territory, trading more than 20% below their all-time highs. The message from financials is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.👇
Sherman retweeted
A One-Sector Bull Market👇
AI is the only dominant trade in this bull market. Its extraordinary growth is fueling earnings, investment and productivity, while simultaneously keeping real rates elevated and crowding out almost every other asset class.
Tech can offset higher discount rates through explosive earnings growth; most of the market cannot. This is not a broad bull market. It is a one-sector bull market dominated entirely by AI.
#QQQ
The contribution of Hall and Woodford👇
Robert Hall and Michael Woodford helped establish a macroeconomic framework in which agents are forward looking and optimize intertemporally under uncertainty.
The key implication for monetary policy is powerful: if the Fed can credibly change the expected future path of interest rates, inflation, or policy, it can affect consumption, investment, asset prices, and economic activity today, even without changing the current policy rate.
In simple terms, today’s macroeconomic outcomes depend on expectations about tomorrow, making the management of expectations itself a fundamental instrument of monetary policy.
A big big congrats!!!!!
#TLT
inflation runnig at 4%: where is the gift?
A One-Sector Bull Market👇
AI is the only dominant trade in this bull market. Its extraordinary growth is fueling earnings, investment and productivity, while simultaneously keeping real rates elevated and crowding out almost every other asset class.
Tech can offset higher discount rates through explosive earnings growth; most of the market cannot. This is not a broad bull market. It is a one-sector bull market dominated entirely by AI.
#QQQ
