@gcanavan2
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Founder and Portfolio Manager at Canavan Capital Partners, a wholesale investment fund. Editorial Director at Fat Tail Investment Research
Wollongong
Joined October 2019
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Well, it’s taken a while to get here, but we’re finally ready to accept wholesale investor applications for the Canavan Capital Partners Australian Share Fund.
Go to the website and click on the ‘Invest Now’ button for the Investment Memorandum and the online application form.
canavancapital.com.au
The Fund will employ the same philosophy and process I used the run the (model) Permanent Capital Portfolio for clients of Fat Tail Investment Research.
From inception (1 December 2024) to 31 July, the portfolio generated a gross annualised return of 18%, significantly beating the market.
I achieved that by doing less, not more: Holding average cash levels of 15-20%, avoiding speculative miners and hot sectors (Aussie IT and ‘quality compounders’ in 2025). Basically, trying not to do anything stupid.
In investing, you win by not losing. Taking care of the downside and letting the upside take care of itself is the opposite of how most people invest. But in my view, it’s the only way to do it.
The next 10 years is going to be very good for the genuine active investor. The market is increasingly distorted by computers trading short-term noise and momentum, and, to a lesser extent, value agnostic passive investors. This will create plenty of mis-pricings.
For those with the temperament and patience to play the long game, and accept short-term pain from time to time, the next decade will be a good one, in a market where overall returns will probably be pretty poor.
If you’d like to join me on this long-term journey, check out the Investment Memorandum, or enter your details in the website and I’ll be in touch.
Cheers,
Greg
Greg Canavan retweeted
Bro just won a championship and this is the commentary 😆 DC ain’t reallll #wrestling #NCAAwrestling #lucasbyrd #shepmates
The ASX is an emotional wreck right now. This is excellent if you know your valuations and can distinguish quality from listed slop (of which there is alot).
But it would be an absolute nightmare if you don't have this anchor. Clearly from the wild swings you're seeing in individual stocks, many don't.
Or maybe this is just how it is now that algos and passive are driving the bus?
Big move lower in US bond yields overnight. Starting to price in a slowdown in 2027, thanks to crazy AI investment spend starting to wake up to itself.
This is probably a headwind at the index level, but good for many interest rate sensitive sectors.
Greg Canavan retweeted
Coreweave unsecured bondholders today: "I was NOT aware I was lending to a highly leveraged company whose intent was to borrow a lot more to finance the biggest industrial buildout ever not just in $$ terms but also as % of GDP. NO ONE TOLD ME THIS"
I don’t know what happens to Maas. But man this is a great example of Munger’s maxim about succeeding by just not doing stupid shit.
Greg Canavan retweeted
Coal prices up 40% this year on LNG replacement demand, supply uncertainty asia.nikkei.com/business/ene… via @NikkeiAsia
"Exports from Indonesia, one of the world's top coal producers, have stagnated as the government has toughened approval criteria for mining plans and tightened domestic supply obligations. Commodity Insights projects the country's 2026 export volume coming to 450 million tons, down roughly 10% on the year, or less, based on weak export levels last month."
$BOQ reported a 7% decline in earnings and cash ROE of 6.1%. Share price up 5% and helping cat-on-a-hot-tin-roof capital to panic out of resources and into banks today.
BOQ trades at 0.785x book, so adjusted ROE is around 7.77%.
That's an ordinary return. Give me cash at 5% instead of levered regional bank equity at 7.8%.
I guess super funds have to buy something. At least it's better than $CBA.
Firmus was due to list next week, 23rd Oct. With the market waking up to the absurdity of the neocloud model (CoreWeave down 15% overnight) the IPO would’ve been a bigger disaster than pulling it.
Now, the value destruction will remain behind closed doors. Multiply this by thousands across US private and venture markets.
Note the US 10-year bond yield declined on today's US inflation data and is down around 10bps from the peak. Starting to price in more Fed hikes and a slowing economy.
Greg Canavan retweeted
🌴 Bali has suddenly run out of gasoline
The island has turned into one massive traffic jam. Many gas stations have closed, while drivers are forced to wait for hours to get into those that remain open.
Denpasar, Kuta, Badung and Jembrana have been particularly hard hit. In Jembrana alone, fuel shortages have affected 14 gas stations.
The widespread disruption was caused by delays in the arrival of fuel tankers, Indonesian media report.
He’s not wrong.
Albanese has 59 personal advisors who get between 200k and 450k per year. Their super is 15.4 percent while everyone not connected to these thieves is 12 percent. Most of em get 25k car allowance each year. They get super on that too. What for? They also racked up 3.4 million in travel expenses last year. Why? There job is at Parliament House. When they get moved on, they get massive redundancy payout, and can start working another job in parliament the next day. It’s just theft of taxpayer money, but the only ones who get hunted down are the brave souls trying to make an honest living in Australia, who get smashed by ridiculous taxes to pay the parasites.
Firmus' mate Coreweave showing credit stress...
In other words, focus on your downside, let the upside take care of itself. Hardly anyone does this.
Benjamin Graham: “The function of the margin of safety is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the future.”
The best way to avoid losses is less about making the right predictions & more about leaving room for them to be wrong.
The bigger your margin of safety, the smaller the need for precision.
Greg Canavan retweeted
“Freight now accounts for more than 25% of the landed cost of crude oil, versus ~3% before the conflict.”
Crazy how the Aussie market prices data centre companies so differently to the US. NextDC is a poor business and deserves to trade where it is.
When will US investors wake up and realise these companies are low return, capital intensive infrastructure plays, that, unlike most infrastructure, need heavy reinvestment to maintain.
Its probably due a bounce after the constant selling, but its still a poor business.
