I believe the Ethereum bottom is likely in. My reasoning isn’t based on one indicator it’s the confluence of multiple factors: • Chris Lori’s 13 Characteristics of a Price Swing are largely complete. • June printed what I believe is the Point of Release (PoR). • Market structure is beginning to shift in favour of the bulls. • The June low also aligns with historical seasonality. During the last mid-term election year (2022), #Ethereum also bottomed in June before beginning its next major trend higher. This year we’ve once again printed a significant low in June, adding another layer of confluence. Nothing is guaranteed, but when structure, psychology and historical timing align, it’s something I pay close attention to. Time will tell. 👀 $eth #eth

$BTC is struggling to reclaim the H4 200 MA. I warned the Telegram yesterday that we could see a pullback from this level, and that’s exactly what has played out. Price has now retraced into the daily range lows, trading slightly below the value area. This is the key level bulls continue to defend aggressively, as they understand the implications of losing it. Any sustained acceptance below $81.2K could open the door to a move back into the previous range.

$ETH Buyers have stepped in and successfully defended that key level, but the question now is whether they have enough momentum to push price back towards the range highs. On the H4, price has reclaimed the 12/21 EMAs. If we can establish acceptance above them, that could provide the confirmation we need to support further upside continuation.

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$ETH We really need to see buyers step in here, as a loss of this level could get ugly. As highlighted on the chart, there is significant market inefficiency below $2,360 that could leave price vulnerable to further downside. A break of this support could open the door to a move back towards $1.9K. Under normal circumstances, I would consider a long entry here with tight invalidation, using lower-timeframe acceptance below support as my exit trigger. However, given that it is Sunday, I am less inclined to take the trade. For now, $2,360 is the key level to watch.

$BTC There is a lot of panic across the timeline, and I understand why. We are approaching our first daily close below the current range lows since September, alongside the first daily close below the D1 50 MA since August. However, this does not invalidate the higher-timeframe bullish structure. It simply opens up the possibility that price is rotating back into the previous range. If you have managed risk effectively, taken profits along the way, and avoided chasing the highs, this pullback could present some excellent opportunities.

$BTC My higher-timeframe outlook remains unchanged. Market structure is still bullish, but I do have some concerns regarding short-term price action. Although we are currently holding the range lows and value area, I’m not liking the H4 acceptance below the 200 MA. The amount of time we’re spending around these lows without any meaningful buying pressure is also a concern. We need to see stronger momentum develop if price is going to rotate back towards the range highs. There is significant market inefficiency below the range lows, which could see price bleed back towards the mid-$70Ks to fill some of that inefficiency. I suspect $ALTS would struggle during a move like this, but personally, I would view it as a potential opportunity rather than a reason to panic. What would invalidate this scenario? For now, I’d like to see price reclaim the 200 MA, move back above the POC and ideally begin consolidating towards the range highs. That would give me more confidence in the continuation of the current bullish structure.

$ALTS / #TOTAL3 This is the first meaningful retest of the weekly 12/21 EMA since the bullish crossover, which signalled a shift in higher-timeframe momentum. Price is currently trading below support, which is not ideal. However, the key factor now is whether the 12/21 EMA can hold as support and preserve the bullish higher-timeframe structure, keeping the potential for further upside continuation intact.

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$ETH I warned you and we got it ✔️ Ideal scenario for bulls now would be to hold these lows and simply trade back up towards the range highs. Under 2360 there is a lot of market insufficiency so if we lose that level imo I’d expect some blood to follow.

$BTC - Do not let the bears get into your head over the current price action. This consolidation was always a possibility, and I’ve discussed this scenario numerous times. Look back at the price action following our previous reclaim of the 50W MA. We spent 224 days consolidating in a range before the next leg higher. I know that’s not what the bulls want to hear, as a similar timeline would take us into April 2027. The exact timeframe doesn’t need to repeat, but the point remains: these consolidation phases can take far longer than most people expect. My broader view remains that prices will be significantly higher this time next year. The biggest mistake you can make is allowing short-term price action to force you into poor decisions and losing your position in the market during a prolonged consolidation phase. Some altcoins may get ugly along the way. You need to have a plan: either hold through the volatility if your thesis remains intact, or establish clear invalidation levels and look to re-enter at lower support. Personally, I’ll be doing a mixture of both, depending on the setup. The fractal is also continuing to develop in line with our previous cycle comparison. The 12/21 EMA crossover turned bullish around the same time we reclaimed the 50W MA, just as it did in 2023. Back then, price revisited the range lows, pushed to new local highs, and then experienced one final move back towards those lows before the next major leg higher. That doesn’t guarantee the same outcome, but it’s a useful reminder that consolidation, volatility and another move lower do not automatically invalidate the broader bullish thesis. Stay patient, manage your risk, respect your invalidation levels, and don’t let short-term fear dictate your long-term decisions.

Hearing that the CPI numbers have come in unfavourably. It is what it is. For me, the key focus remains $BTC holding 81.2K. The H4 200 MA is now aligning with the VAL, making 82.3K an increasingly important level. However, the range lows remain the key level from a broader structural perspective. Losing the H4 200 MA would weaken the case for those range lows holding as support. From a higher-timeframe perspective, nothing has changed. Market structure continues to support the spot and chill approach, and I’ll be sure to alert everyone if that outlook changes. What I particularly like about the current H4 price action is the well-defined, range-bound environment. It allows us to monitor price behaviour closely, identify early signs of a potential higher-timeframe correction, or look for confluence that could support a move towards fresh local highs.

$PONS After a brutal downtrend, Pons appears to be attempting a shift in market structure. Price has broken above the descending trendline and reclaimed the H4 12/21 EMAs, which is an encouraging initial development. I’ll be watching closely for further confirmation of a breakout before considering opportunities on Robinhood Chain again. The key question is whether this move develops into a sustained structural shift or gets faded, with price falling back below these reclaimed levels. Confirmation is key. No need to anticipate the move before the chart gives us a clear signal.

Good morning. $BTC The 50 MA has secured the reclaim first, with an H4 close and subsequent retest above. However, the POC continues to act as significant resistance, leaving price tightly compressed between these two key levels. We also have CPI data due today, which could introduce further volatility. For now, $83.9K is the key level to reclaim to strengthen the bullish case and provide confirmation of upside continuation.

$BTC An interesting battle between the moving averages. Which one gives way first? Price is now being compressed between the two. The H4 200 MA could be the level that triggers fresh local lows if lost, while reclaiming the H4 50 MA could open the door to fresh local highs. Given the broader higher-timeframe structural shift, I’d favour a reclaim of the 50 MA. However, both moving averages have been respected as clear areas of support and resistance, making this a key battle to watch.

$PUMP Our initial entry was around $0.003379, supported by multiple confluences, including a key support level and the Daily 50 MA. We could be approaching a similar setup, with the Daily 50 MA now sitting just above the $0.0046 support zone as well as the 0.618 fib. I’m watching this area closely for a potential buy trigger before considering another entry.

We’ve identified some strong swing trade opportunities across the altcoin market this year, including $HYPE, $ZEC, $VIRTUAL and $PUMP. I’m planning a video breaking down the market and identifying the most promising opportunities to watch next. Drop your tickers below and let me know which projects you’d like me to analyse. 👇

It feels as though the crypto market is already shifting into risk-off mode, despite several higher-timeframe confluences suggesting a potential shift in market structure. $ALTS / #TOTAL3 is now trading into support. Under normal circumstances, this would be an area to consider buying the dip, but I’m struggling to find the conviction or see any clear evidence of buyers stepping in. Is this simply part of the psychological game the market plays? Bull markets are rarely straightforward. They test your conviction, create uncertainty and often force you to question your own bias. That said, if $790B is lost on this chart, I would seriously consider de-risking. This is especially relevant for anyone who has added to positions on recent dips at less favourable entries than those available a month or two ago.

$BTC Range lows are continuing to provide support, while the POC remains a significant resistance level. Ideally, we need to reclaim the POC and establish acceptance above it. Continued acceptance below this level would increase the probability of further downside.

$BTC Market Update BTC has reclaimed the value area following the flush to the range lows. The POC remains a key resistance for now, but price is holding above the 12/21 EMAs, which have just crossed bullish again on the H4. We’re seeing some tight compression between the POC overhead and the EMAs below. The next move should help determine whether we have the momentum to push higher. With US markets closed today, be mindful of potentially thinner liquidity and how that may impact lower-timeframe price action. What I’m watching: Bullish: A reclaim of the POC would strengthen the case for another retest of the swing highs. Bearish: Losing the 12/21 EMAs would increase the likelihood of a move back towards the VAL. For now, I’m watching how price reacts around these key levels before committing to a direction.

On a serious note, yesterday’s dump on $BTC shouldn’t have caught as many people off guard as it did. We’re still ranging, and volatility within a range is to be expected. The key is to remain focused on the levels that matter rather than reacting emotionally to every move. The real concern would be losing 81.2K and finding acceptance back inside the previous range. That would open the door to a move towards the range lows around 76.5K. Until then, patience and level-to-level trading remain key.