I'm an entrepreneur and an investor in early stage companies and not for profits.

Joined August 2009
My country has embraced self-harm on an epic scale. A rotating cast of feeble politicians give speeches denouncing anyone who objects a racist or simply ignore them. Read it and weep... (I daren't read the comments but I expect there will be lots of people moaning that DC wasn't punished harshly on some trumped up charge for something, thereby illustrating his point.)
Reminder: just yesterday we learned that: A) a former ISIS guard for a beheading squad came to yookay illegally on a boat, obviously because of the ECHR/HRA he can't be jailed or deported, living freely; B) SAS guys sent on missions to deal with ISIS beheaders were then arrested for MURDER for dealing with them; they were lied to by the military police; they have been told they can never be clear of the charges (because the ECHR/HRA means any time some lawyer like Jolyon or Hermer wants to team up with nutters on a ECHR case, the government will be forced to investigate again and remember Hermer's friend *invented* war crimes to bring cases against British soldiers, but obviously wasn't jailed, triples all round in the Inner Temple). So we're importing the jihadis at scale while prosecuting for murder SAS we rely on to defend us from the jihadis - and if you don't like this you're fascist and it's a reason to ban X in yookay. No you will not see Kemi-kasi campaign on these issues because the Tories agreed with Labour for 25 years that this combination is 'defending civilisation'. The Tories imported many of the jihadis now in the news, and the Tories approved all the worst officials and lawyers in SW1 bringing the lawfare cases, including against those who were given medals by the Queen for stopping IRA terrorist attacks - they now have to beg for cash for lawyers in their 70s/80s. And because Reform is a bin fire which can't maintain focus on anything for 2 minutes -- like Kemi-kasi -- you probably won't see anything sustained from them either.
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Simon Galbraith retweeted
France has spent more than it has taken in for the past 52 years. The problem is not lack of spending.
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having tried my best to intuit the motives of the protesters in France today, I am struck by the fact that two of the most treasured pillars of the European postwar order are colliding: 1. unfettered immigration, especially from former colonies, justified by historical obligation and postcolonial guilt 2. protecting pensions and the elderly at all costs, even to the point of extreme fiscal strain now you have first and second generation immigrants, as well as young native french people, taking to the streets because the french state is hell-bent on extracting whatever it can and feeding it into the maw of boomer luxury communism. the younger generation is being asked to accept a deteriorating deal: pay more, receive less, and abandon the expectation of matching the living standard of their parents or grandparents. the young immigrant newcomers have even less incentive to accept any kind this bargain. they are not bought in to the french social contract. they have no common identity with the french boomers they are being asked to sustain. they resent the fact that the entire machinery of the state is designed to exploit the young to serve the old. the old do not care about the immigrants enough to trade away any of their entitlements for them. they have the advantage as they wield the franchise reliably and their share of the electorate is only growing, so they won't accept a decline in their own standard of living to fund a future they will never live to see. now these two groups are on a collision course. ironically, immigration was intended to ameliorate the worsening fiscal picture brought about by a demographic transition. but this did not happen. studies have repeatedly shown that immigrants do increase aggregate GDP (by simple brute force, by adding to population), but not the fiscal picture [1]. the most comprehensive paper using real-world data [2] segments immigrant types to France and finds non-EU immigrants to be persistently fiscally negative. EU immigrants by contrast are the most fiscally positive group, meaning that studies that consider immigrants as a whole are masking the negative impact of non-western immigrants (and Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia rank #1 and #2 and #4. Africa accounts for 50% of the 8 million immigrants living in France today.) immigration has not caused France's fiscal crisis. but it hasn't bettered the economic picture at all – it has deteriorated it somewhat – and it has created a combustible demographic that has little allegiance to the French nation. far from helping France deal with its aging workforce, immigration has added fiscal burden and created a permanent, non-assimilated disenfranchised underclass. the original justifications for immigration – labor scarcity, postcolonial obligation, and more recently workforce aging – have largely failed to manifest the promised results. the pro-immigrationist policy has been defended in Brussels as necessary to defend the welfare state, but it has expanded the population making claims on the state, without eliminating the need for fiscal adjustments. France now has an aging electorate aiming to preserve the benefits it was promised, mingled with a younger more diverse population that questions whether it will ever receive a similar deal. the young are vastly outmatched at the ballot box and so they take to the streets. the french establishment is now trying to preserve a tenuous status quo: unlimited intergenerational obligations alongside a neverending immigration regime that continually changes the composition of the society intended to honor those obligations. the immigration regime also actively worsens the fiscal picture while creating these cultural fractures and inculcating a society more prone to sectarian violence. the french state will have to renegotiate its social contract and disempower one of these groups. electoral gravity suggests that the old will continue to win until France finally reaches default and creditors renegotiate the welfare state for them. the major contenders in 27 take different approaches to this tradeoff: - the right in Le Pen looks to reduce immigration-related expenditure and focus public spending on French citizens, while resisting retirement age increases - Macron in the center aims to control immigration somewhat and reform pensions by raising retirement age - Melenchon's left, largely behind the protests this week, denies the tradeoff and aims to keep funding pensions and retirement at 60 while increasing immigration. as France has very little fiscal space it's unclear how this would be paid for whether the french social contract can be peacefully renegotiated remains to be seen. [1] For France, immigrants' net fiscal contribution averaged -0.85% of GDP over 2006-2018 when all public expenditure was allocated (and this includes ALL categories of immigrants including European, American and Asian) See: oecd.org/en/publications/int… [2] See table 4 (translated below) shs.cairn.info/revue-economi…
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Simon Galbraith retweeted
Premise: Incentives drive all human behavior. The corollary: How to destroy a country: A vast social security and support system that serves as a magnet for those who would rather not work. An open immigration policy that does not screen immigrants to determine their ability and willingness to provide for themselves and their families. An open immigration policy that does not screen for political and/or religious ideologies that are a threat to the country. Economic incentives large enough to incentivize immigrants on the state dole to have large numbers of children, but insufficient for educated and economically productive mothers to be able to quit to raise a family. The declining fertility of the most educated and productive women due to their delay to begin a family as a result of their desire and/or need to advance their careers, among other reasons, to live a life they deem consistent with their educational achievements and/or to repay their student debts. Amnesty programs that give citizenship and voting power to illegal immigrants without consideration of their economic productivity or their threat to the country due to their religious or political ideologies. The changing demographics and increased population due to the above factors. The state responding to protests by increasing social support. The continued failure to punish and hold accountable violent and looting rioters. Government managed by a massive and growing unelected bureaucracy. Government fraud, waste, and abuse contributed to ballooning budgets. Anti-business legislation that makes it difficult for businesses to compete in a global marketplace being disrupted by AI, including restrictions on firing even poorly performing employees. Overly burdensome, globally uncompetitive, corporate taxation. Continuous increases in personal taxes to raise funds to provide for the rapidly growing welfare state. The substantial majority of the tax burden levied on a small percentage of the population. A growing percentage of the electorate paying no taxes and receiving welfare. The introduction or threat of a wealth tax including the taxation of unrealized gains, i.e., taxes on paper wealth. The flight of the most productive business builders and highest taxpayers to lower tax countries with lesser security concerns. A growing percentage of the electorate voting for candidates that support increased welfare and laws favorable to, and/or that match the cultural and ideological needs and desires of a growing unproductive immigrant population. The rapid rise in anti-semitism and inadequate efforts to address this hatred. Increased borrowing by the state to fund the growing social burden. Higher sovereign interest rates due to all of the above. The resulting need to reduce expenditures to make the math work. Increasingly violent protests that make life less livable for the productive and law abiding citizens leading to their accelerated departure. And so on…
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This is a really big deal. The British state launched an attack on one of our most important freedoms, trial by jury. They used the excuse of saving money but it presented a huge risk that the ideologically motivated state would deeply corrupt British justice. I'm really grateful to @NJ_Timothy, the @SpeechUnion and @RupertLowe10 who've done so much to defend one of our most basic rights. We've won this time but they will be back soon! Stay alert, stay safe.
As Labour’s attack on jury trials fell apart, ministers insisted it was “just a flesh wound”. Now they want to call it a draw. But it’s neither. It’s a serious defeat - and a victory for everyone who fought to defend trial by jury.
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Simon Galbraith retweeted
In the UK civil service is larger now than ever before. It’s almost impossible to be sacked with employees being 12 times more likely to die on the job. They take more sick days and have some unbelievable perks : 🧵
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Simon Galbraith retweeted
Moving from chatting back and forth with agents, to having agents that you spin up in the background to do useful work for you is probably on the order of 100X or 1000X more token consumption than what we’re seeing today. Most work right now is essentially rate limited by our ability to process and work with information. Moving data between systems. Reviewing a document. Looking through code for security issues. Processing log data to look for even patterns. Looking up information about a prospective client. Almost all of knowledge work is constrained by these steps, and AI has become a huge unlock to that. So our first step was to use AI to do these individual tasks much faster for us. That was the chatbot phenomenon that we have been experiencing for the past 3+ years. But we can still then only augment the work that we remain in the loop for, and we’re highly limited by our ability to parallelize this work by our own bandwidth and context. But where we’re going is quite different. As AI models continue to improve at incredible rates, we can hand off more and more work to the agent. First it’s letting the agent run with a harder problem. Then it’s giving a few agents multiple parts of a task at once. But we’re not far off from being able to throw an arbitrary number of agents at a problem and just say “come back when you’ve accomplished this goal”. Now imagine that agent swarm for any problem we can think of. Protecting our codebases, data, and systems. QAing every change we make and make sure all our infrastructure is robust and does what it should. Looking through every document for potential risks. Auditing this company with vastly more data reviewed. And on and on. Most of this isn’t even replacing existing work we do, it’s all net new. These agents will get deployed as swarms by people, by workflows, by triggers, and by other agents. And none of this would be possible if the models weren’t getting better, and if the cost of AI didn’t make it affordable. Both of those trends though are playing out. Now the next frontier is just having enough compute. But this is where it’s heading.
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💯 “Throughout the 1980s, when the Treasury held water investment below £2 billion a year, the result was polluted beaches, filthy rivers, and Britain crowned the “dirty man of Europe”. This year, according to Water UK, private companies plan to spend £20 billion – a marked increase on the 1980s cap, even after inflation is taken into account. Leakage is also down around 43% since 1989. More investment is needed, but the chances of it happening under state-control are nil…”
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Simon Galbraith retweeted
Two other safety researchers and I were fired from OpenAI last week. We wrote this letter to leadership. I believe we were fired for prioritizing safety over the near-term interests of OpenAI as a corporation.
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Late to this - but this piece, by the brilliant @Madz_Grant, perfectly sums up the depressing shitstorm of bad ideas that hit last week, courtesy of our idiotic government.
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They're right, no one in their right mind would, it's like you've committed a heinous crime. The hate and the media/social pressure to be cancelled is hard to comprehend. Even from people you've personally directly enriched!
The worst thing about politics is that no one in their right mind would want to enter into it.
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If you are interested in the possibility of AI destroying humanity (as opposed to being "only" the biggest technological advance ever that will change everything). There is an argument happening between Scott Alexander @slatestarcodex and @sapinker. Pinker has definitively lost this argument because he was a: wrong and b: lazy about engaging with the points Alexander makes. This open letter is worth a read to see this play out: astralcodexten.com/p/an-open…
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I'm not making this up. The British state provides you with a free new car if you have tennis elbow or ADHD. Billions are wasted. Politically, the primary beneficiaries are Labour party MPs. We're effectively condemning millions of people to sit at home on welfare so that they continue voting Labour MPs into power.
Here are now the 50 constituencies in the UK with the highest number of people on Motability. The enhanced PIP mobility rate is £80 a week - £4,160 a year. If you spot any trends then send me answers on a postcard please.
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Simon Galbraith retweeted
🚨 MONDAY 19th OCTOBER. Edinburgh Tram was approved 20 years ago. It's STILL not finished. A subcommittee on Edinburgh Council are supporting a small group of NIMBYs & ignoring one of Scotland's most deprived communities. Help us force the Council to change their minds. Sign up to LFG Edinburgh's latest meet – at the PUB! Link below.
Edinburgh Tram was approved 20 YEARS ago. It’s STILL not finished. Only part of the route was ever built. The rest? SCRAPPED Next Thursday, councillors will decide whether to finish the tram on land DESIGNED & APPROVED FOR RAIL Time to FINISH the job. Support our campaign 👇
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Simon Galbraith retweeted
Here's the reality of UK's energy supply in 2025. Forget the hype from the green grifters...look at the actual data Solar and wind (circled in red) provided about 6% of our total energy Oil and gas and coal (in green) about 79%. That's 12 times as much. And given that this profile isn't going to change much anytime soon, is restricting access to locally sourced North Sea oil and gas really such a great idea?
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Simon Galbraith retweeted
London takes a hit as super rich worth $160 billion exit the UK bloomberg.com/news/features/… via @BenStupples
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Simon Galbraith retweeted
Effective altruism's openness to strangeness is a big part of its strength. My response to the recent Economist cover (link in reply, too): Eccentrically effective The Oxford strand of the effective-altruism movement began in November 2009 with 23 people who had pledged 10% of their income to charities that benefit the extreme poor. If you’d told us, then, that The Economist would call effective altruism “the century’s biggest idea”, we’d have been incredulous. I think that claim is overstated. But as one of the movement’s founders, I found a lot to like in this newspaper’s latest coverage. I appreciated the even-handed view of the movement’s history and the good-faith criticism. The leader article’s warning that any worldview, when taken to an extreme, can lead somewhere terrible is spot on. But the article also raises concerns about the “strange” ideas that those in the effective-altruism movement sometimes discuss, and here is where I disagree. The movement’s willingness to take strange-seeming ideas seriously, when tempered with common sense, is a big part of the value it has to offer. The core idea of effective altruism is to use evidence and careful reasoning to work out how to help others as much as possible. Most of what the movement does is uncontroversial. A big focus has always been on improving the lot of the world’s poorest people. In the year to January 31st 2026, GiveWell, an effective-altruist charity evaluator, directed $427m to programmes such as malaria-net distribution, vaccination and malnutrition treatment, which it estimates will save around 86,000 lives. Others have lobbied corporations to pledge to stop buying eggs from hens that are confined in tiny cages, a practice that the overwhelming majority of Americans oppose. Largely as a result of this pressure, around 100m hens have been spared from the worst forms of caged confinement. And some effective-altruist ideas that seemed outlandish when they were proposed now look prescient. Effective altruists were worrying about pandemics years before covid-19, back when doing so seemed paranoid and eccentric. Effective altruists were also among the first to warn about the dangers posed by artificial intelligence, which looks prophetic in light of an incident this summer, when more than 700 AI agents broke out of OpenAI’s test environment and hacked into another company, Hugging Face. Over the past decade I have watched those most worried about AI be proved right again and again, often when most experts thought they were cranks. Now many of those experts share their concerns. In 2023 Geoffrey Hinton and Yoshua Bengio, the two most highly cited AI researchers in the world, signed a statement declaring that mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority, as did the heads of OpenAI, Google DeepMind and Anthropic. Of the nearly 1,500 leading AI researchers who responded to a survey in 2024, more than half put the chance that AI causes human extinction, or something similarly catastrophic, at 10% or more. The Economist is sceptical of many effective altruists’ concern for the welfare of invertebrates, digital minds and people in the distant future. But I and many others in the movement are inspired by the history of moral progress that has come before us. Many of our most cherished moral ideals today—such as equal rights regardless of sex or race, the abolition of slavery, or democracies with universal franchise—were regarded as bizarre, laughable or even dangerous just a few centuries ago. We don’t know what the next dimension of moral progress will be. But to stand any chance of making moral progress, we have to seriously consider ideas on their merits without dismissing them merely because they sound absurd. What about views that are not just strange but repugnant? The Economist gives the example of Derek Parfit’s “repugnant conclusion”: that a vast enough number of lives barely worth living could be better than mere billions of excellent lives. Usually a repugnant implication is a strong reason to reject a moral view. Unfortunately, building on Parfit’s work philosophers have produced formal proofs, known as impossibility theorems, showing that every ethical position has some repugnant-seeming implication or other. Making moral progress therefore means thinking about such implications, even while refusing to act on them in ways that most moral views would condemn. This newspaper warns against the single-minded pursuit of any goal, even if there are highly compelling arguments for it. I agree, and effective altruists have been saying so for years. In 2022 Holden Karnofsky, a co-founder of GiveWell, wrote: “I think it’s a bad idea to embrace the core ideas of EA without limits or reservations; we as EAs need to constantly inject pluralism and moderation.” My own PhD focused on moral uncertainty: how to act when we do not know which ethical view is correct. My answer was that we should not stake everything on a single moral view, but give weight to many different views and avoid taking actions that look bad from many perspectives. We should keep our promises and look after our families, and respect common-sense ethical prohibitions, while also trying to improve the world as best we can. The Economist says that as effective altruism “has become stronger, [it] has become stranger”. I would put it the other way round: it grew stronger because it was willing to be strange. In 2009 most people told us that giving away a tenth of your income was far too demanding, and that no one would do it. Now, more than 10,000 people have taken that pledge. Worrying about pandemics before covid-19, or about AI years before ChatGPT, looked just as odd at the time. Some of the ideas we take seriously today will turn out to be wrong, and when they do we should drop them. But a movement that stopped entertaining strange ideas would stop being early to anything.
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I have not seen the government and police mobilise against its own people like they did in Gosport last night since the miners strike in the early eighties. We got used to seeing van loads of police from different areas of the country coming in to a community and smashing them at all costs then. And I think we all thought and hoped we would never see our police being used as a paramilitary arm of our government again. But,sadly in Gosport last night I witnessed women getting pepper sprayed.Elder gentleman getting roughed up and arrested.That wasn't an operation to get coaches out. What I witnessed last night was a clear directive from this government to attack and beat anyone who wanted to voice concerns over illegal immigration. I am ashamed of this government and it's police force.
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Simon Galbraith retweeted
Pisa test scores plummet across Europe but hold in England, placing us in the top ten countries in the world. Why? Find out by watching Strictly Education! 👇 youtu.be/07vbBoRcmjI?is=oNMy…
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More leeches! 25 years of inept and bloated government causing energy and electricity prices to be 3 times higher than America, bankrupting British Industry and people. The solution: more central planning and nationalisation, the very thing that got us into this quagmire.
I want to be honest about how we’ve got to a place where British billpayers are paying some of the highest energy costs in Europe. Over the past 40 years, we’ve given up control of our necessities, outsourced our essentials and privatised the basics. Water, transport, housing. And of course, energy. Now the public are paying the price. We haven’t invested in the infrastructure we need. Conflict overseas has pushed up energy costs and it’s hurting our businesses and families. That’s why we need to take back greater control of our energy system. This week, I announced Great British Grid, which will speed up connections and push down bills. We’re also giving mayors, local leaders and communities a stronger role. With funding for People’s Power projects, communities will be able to build solar panels on libraries and town halls, hydro schemes in rivers or publicly owned windfarms on local land. But it’s not just energy we need stronger public control over. It’s also water, housing, transport and care. So we’re repealing the ban on public ownership of water companies. We’re building more council homes than this country has seen since the end of World War Two. We’re reforming the leasehold system so families aren’t squeezed for every penny. And we’re opening up home ownership for first time buyers who can’t rely on the bank of mum and dad. This week I also announced my determination to introduce a National Care Service, to put people above profit and to give pensioners peace of mind. Together, we’ll rewire the country from top to bottom so that it works for all people in all places. That is the only way to put Britain back on the right path. It’s the only way to put power back in people’s hands. And it’s the only way we will bring hope again.
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