irl architect | virtual degen

Joined April 2024
$BTC Inverse $DXY (liquidity leading indicator) In the past, I have spoken about the correlation between all major assets and the DXY I noticed over a year ago a very strong correlation in the $DXY to the way money flows to assets - with a lag time which can be relatively predictable and repeatable. Using it provided a helpful leading indication of future price action I call it my crystal ball for a reason For the first time, I sat down and constructed a comprehensive analysis of the inverse DXY against BTC to see how PA behaved and how it gives clues as to how the next few months may unfold This is one of the many reasons I think all assets including BTC are due for a pullback You will need to zoom in to see all the details and notation
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$MU Still have a suspicion that the local bottom isn’t in yet Perhaps one more stab lower
$MU Update PA is following my drawing nicely Still expecting a rejection from this resistance here and possibly to new lows today or early next week But if it flips above the line and holds, that would be my sign to close puts and possibly go long
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Some of the artwork that burned up last night, completely irreplaceable. xitter.cf/DrewPavlou/status/2111…
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$BTC Inverse DXY update Following along nicely Definitely eyeing sub 75k by mid-November
$BTC Been a while since I updated Generally speaking the bear thesis for Oct into Nov appears to be playing out It may not continue aggressively down from here and could instead range, but I think it is less likely that we see an impulsive move to the upside anytime soon 75k is definitely on the table and if enough long liquidity builds up I could definitely see market makers nuking price even further
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$SPY $SPX My downward target was meant for next week and got blown through today with no meaningful bounce I don’t think the bottom is in, so need to recalibrate My best guess is somewhere between mid 750s and mid 740s early to mid next week for a bottom Still holding puts into Monday close and will assess then
$SPY Update Sometimes I even surprise myself with my accuracy Simple indicators and logical TA based on price action That said, a dip below 760 to take out the previous low could still happen, I’m just not banking on it
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$QQQ Update Following my sketch like a magnet
$QQQ We did indeed see the bounce as expected And bulls have likely piled in around these levels expecting a reversal to new highs but I think it was only a bump on a path lower into next week Let’s see
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$SPY Update Sometimes I even surprise myself with my accuracy Simple indicators and logical TA based on price action That said, a dip below 760 to take out the previous low could still happen, I’m just not banking on it
$SPY Also pushing up into resistance here so I am not able to get bullish yet Logical to see a rotation back down to low 760s where I will start to look for calls/longs if it holds SPY continues to show strength so I can’t see it dropping far below 760 unless we get some big news event
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$QQQ We did indeed see the bounce as expected And bulls have likely piled in around these levels expecting a reversal to new highs but I think it was only a bump on a path lower into next week Let’s see
$QQQ If we see a bounce it should be around here Mostly out of puts now That said, the market has been conditioned for massive bounces or new highs after pullbacks So there is a good chance this just speed runs further down to punish patient bears waiting for a bounce and bulls who tried to catch a falling knife
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$SPY Also pushing up into resistance here so I am not able to get bullish yet Logical to see a rotation back down to low 760s where I will start to look for calls/longs if it holds SPY continues to show strength so I can’t see it dropping far below 760 unless we get some big news event
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$MU Update PA is following my drawing nicely Still expecting a rejection from this resistance here and possibly to new lows today or early next week But if it flips above the line and holds, that would be my sign to close puts and possibly go long
$MU Re-entered puts here Imo we have overhead resistance now at 920-930 and I can’t see bulls being rewarded yet More liquidity to grab lower down Targeting low 800s or high 700s for early next week At the very least a double bottom in the mid 800s
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$MU Re-entered puts here Imo we have overhead resistance now at 920-930 and I can’t see bulls being rewarded yet More liquidity to grab lower down Targeting low 800s or high 700s for early next week At the very least a double bottom in the mid 800s
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$QQQ If we see a bounce it should be around here Mostly out of puts now That said, the market has been conditioned for massive bounces or new highs after pullbacks So there is a good chance this just speed runs further down to punish patient bears waiting for a bounce and bulls who tried to catch a falling knife
$QQQ Update Again tracking a bottom some time between 20-22 October Given the reaction today it is looking more likely that the entire range as sketched does play out
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$MU Read the replies The anger and denial is eye opening The amount of absolute pain that will be felt in a few months as people hold and keep averaging down waiting for a new ATH is palpable Been there done that Learned never to repeat THE CASINO ALWAYS WINS
$MU closing on the lows For those that added today, know that you will never see a profit on today's purchases
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$BTC $SPY $QQQ Prepare for rektober I expect the next few weeks will turn every bull into a giga bear And then… we will go violently up
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$SPY $SPX This is what my inverse DXY crystal ball has to say I entered puts yesterday 🙏 Targeting a bottom somewhere sub 760 on the SPY Don’t think we go lower than 750 but anything possible between now and late Oct
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$QQQ Update Again tracking a bottom some time between 20-22 October Given the reaction today it is looking more likely that the entire range as sketched does play out
$QQQ Sketched this a few days ago. Let’s see if it plays out. Maybe a bit extremely but at least reverting back to mean (720ish) looks more likely Methinks October 20-22 is a good spot for a bottom and to start looking for longs/calls
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$MU $SNDK Yes, bulls, just keep buying more I’m sure the market makers will reward you with new all time highs…
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$QQQ Sketched this a few days ago. Let’s see if it plays out. Maybe a bit extremely but at least reverting back to mean (720ish) looks more likely Methinks October 20-22 is a good spot for a bottom and to start looking for longs/calls
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$BTC Been a while since I updated Generally speaking the bear thesis for Oct into Nov appears to be playing out It may not continue aggressively down from here and could instead range, but I think it is less likely that we see an impulsive move to the upside anytime soon 75k is definitely on the table and if enough long liquidity builds up I could definitely see market makers nuking price even further
$BTC Inverse $DXY (liquidity leading indicator) In the past, I have spoken about the correlation between all major assets and the DXY I noticed over a year ago a very strong correlation in the $DXY to the way money flows to assets - with a lag time which can be relatively predictable and repeatable. Using it provided a helpful leading indication of future price action I call it my crystal ball for a reason For the first time, I sat down and constructed a comprehensive analysis of the inverse DXY against BTC to see how PA behaved and how it gives clues as to how the next few months may unfold This is one of the many reasons I think all assets including BTC are due for a pullback You will need to zoom in to see all the details and notation
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$SPX $SPY Update Still a lot more pain ahead imo
$SPX $SPY Significantly lower imo
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