Rationality | Independence | Integrity | Honesty | Justice | Productiveness | Pride | Married
Joined June 2023
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volition retweeted
🔥 bitcoin-cash:native is making a comeback.
In reality, not many people have taken the time to dig deep, and the value of bitcoin-cash:native is still widely misunderstood. Bitcoin Cash is the most misunderstood successful experiment in crypto.
Therefore, this comparison with $ZEC helps us quickly gain a clearer overall view of bitcoin-cash:native.
Exactly one year ago, on September 23, 2025, $ZEC was only $50, and now it is above $1,600.
The rise of privacy-focused coins is also an opportunity for bitcoin-cash:native to rise. It’s time for everyone to reassess the true value of this coin.
volition retweeted
I’m happy to see $BCH pump 30%+ today, likely driven in part by anticipation of greater institutional interest, including Grayscale’s BCH ETF push and CME BCH futures.
But price appreciation alone isn’t enough. For this momentum to be sustainable, we need to keep strengthening the fundamentals—especially real-world BCH payments, DeFi, and businesses building actual products and services around BCH.
I hope those who benefit significantly from this pump consider reinvesting some of those gains into companies and projects with a proven track record of advancing BCH adoption.
As the price goes up, let’s scale the fundamentals with it.
volition retweeted
BCH is next
Why I think BCH/BTC is worth watching
There are external reasons that could support BCH becoming stronger than BTC, but after looking at the current data, I think it would be more accurate to say that there are several external catalysts that could lead to a significant re-rating of BCH/BTC for one cycle, rather than saying that there are strong fundamentals suggesting BCH will become fundamentally superior to BTC over the long term.
The first one is actually the factor I find the most important.
Grayscale’s BCHG is still moving in the direction of an ETF / NYSE Arca listing.
Grayscale has been going through the registration process to convert its existing Bitcoin Cash Trust into an ETF structure listed on NYSE Arca, and amended filings were still being submitted in September 2026.
In previous SEC filings, Grayscale also stated that it believes BCHG could qualify under NYSE Arca’s generic listing standards.
We are not yet at the point where we can say that a BCH spot ETF has been fully approved and listed.
But it is clearly a real, ongoing catalyst that could significantly broaden institutional access to BCH.
There is a reason why this matters for BCH/BTC.
BTC already has extremely broad channels through which institutional capital can enter the market.
BCH, on the other hand, has a dramatically smaller market capitalization.
According to one comparison from late August, BTC’s market cap was around $1.61T, while BCH was around $5.6B.
That is close to a 300x difference.
So if the same amount of new capital enters both markets, the price impact on BCH could potentially be much larger.
This does not mean “an ETF gets launched, therefore BCH goes up.”
The logic is that when accessibility improves in a much smaller market, there is greater potential for the relative valuation to be re-rated.
The second point is that BCH is not a technologically stagnant chain.
The May 15, 2026 upgrade activated Pay-to-Script, bounded loops, functions, and bitwise operations.
So BCH is continuing to expand beyond being simply a payment chain, moving toward the ability to build more complex UTXO-based contracts through CashVM.
This is a fairly different direction from BTC.
BTC has increasingly consolidated around:
Store of Value → Institutional Asset → Security / Scarcity
while BCH has continued developing around:
Low-cost L1 payments + High L1 throughput + CashTokens / CashVM
So if the market ever begins to re-evaluate the narrative of “a Bitcoin-family network that can actually be used,” BCH could attract capital for reasons that are different from BTC.
BCH transaction fees also remain extremely low.
The third point is the one that fits especially well with the chart I’m watching.
The extremely depressed relative valuation itself creates asymmetry.
BCH/BTC is currently trading around the 0.003 area.
That tells us just how severely BCH has underperformed BTC over the past several years.
Of course, that does not mean mean reversion has to happen.
Something does not go up simply because it looks cheap.
But if the sequence starts to develop like this:
Long-term relative underperformance
→ Downside Result begins to weaken
→ A long-term Cause develops
→ Spring
→ External catalysts appear at the same time
then the situation becomes much more interesting.
From a Wyckoff perspective, I think it is especially useful to consider the idea that news does not necessarily create the Cause. Instead, an already-developed Cause can sometimes turn into Effect through news or a new narrative.
But this is also where I would put a fairly strong brake on the thesis.
There is still no evidence that BCH usage is currently exploding.
Recent comparative data showed BTC processing roughly 610,000 transactions per day, while BCH was only around the 10,000 range.
BCH active addresses were also only around 20,000.
The CashTokens / CashVM ecosystem is still very small as well.
One of the more prominent BCH DEXs, Cauldron, currently has only around $0.7M in TVL, with approximately $0.7M in 30-day trading volume.
The technology exists, but economic activity has not yet grown to a meaningful scale.
And when it comes to security and institutional adoption, BCH is still difficult to compare with BTC.
As of late August, BTC’s hash rate was roughly 269 times larger than BCH’s, while Bitcoin also had a massive lead in institutional infrastructure such as ETFs, futures, options, custody, and OTC markets.
So this is how I currently evaluate the external evidence.
Strong factors
Grayscale BCHG’s attempt to transition toward an ETF / NYSE Arca listing
BCH’s extremely small market size relative to BTC → potentially much higher price sensitivity to new capital
Continued development of the BCH protocol
Conditional factors
A re-rating of the low-cost L1 payments narrative
Growth of applications built around CashVM / CashTokens
A market environment such as falling BTC dominance + rotation into older L1s
Evidence that is still missing
Explosive growth in on-chain users
Explosive growth in DeFi / TVL
Actual large-scale institutional capital inflows into BCH
A change in network effects large enough to meaningfully challenge BTC
So if I add these external factors to the 0.003 → 0.01 → 0.029 BCH/BTC structure I’m watching, this is how I would put it:
There are clearly external catalysts that could justify a relative-value re-rating toward somewhere around 0.01.But there is not yet enough adoption evidence to fundamentally justify a long-term super-cycle all the way to 0.029.
And that is exactly why the Wyckoff structure matters.
If we eventually get an actual
Spring → Test → SOS
while at the same time seeing progress in the BCHG ETF process, increasing BCH on-chain activity, and growing TVL in the CashVM ecosystem, then I would begin to seriously consider the possibility that this was not simply a chart pattern, but rather that price had been accumulating in advance of a fundamental shift.
At this point, the progress of BCHG’s ETF conversion is probably one of the most notable external variables to watch.
And it fits the long-term BCH/BTC thesis better than I initially expected.
volition retweeted
In my opinion, AI is kind of a mirror. Each person experiences it differently, based on themselves.
I think coding is basically solved. But that's only for me and maybe the way I prompt it. And I wouldn't trust it on anything mission critical.
It’s amazing how damaging a single false premise (the blank slate fallacy) can be for humans. Same holds true for AI.
volition retweeted
A big week for democracy! If you vote to spend ratepayers’ money, you should answer to ratepayers. That's just common sense.
volition retweeted
REVEALED: Victoria University has been caught using compulsory student fees to fund the university branch of the Labour Party.
Labour at Vic received a $1,700 grant from the Student Services Levy - money students are required to pay.
In its application, Labour at Vic described itself as the local youth branch of the New Zealand Labour Party and highlighted the importance of 2026 because of the General Election.
Save Our Clubs uncovered the funding through OIA requests.
TEC says the grant did not breach the current rules. If that’s right, then the rules are the problem.
Students should never be forced to subsidise political organisations they may strongly disagree with.
Young ACT has never asked Victoria University for direct funding, and would never do so.
Chris Hipkins should step in and tell Labour at Vic to return the money.
ACT will make Student Services Fees voluntary so students, not universities, decide what they fund.
volition retweeted
Mao – The Bloodiest Idiot Who Ever Lived
Between 45 and 80 million dead. Not in war. Not in camps, mostly. In peacetime, in a country at peace with itself, killed by a series of decisions so stupid that a competent farmer could have refuted every one of them in an afternoon. This is what happens when a warlord with no education in anything runs a billion people – and is applauded from Paris while he does it.
1. The sparrows. In 1958 he decided the birds were eating the grain. So the entire country was mobilized to kill them: villagers banging pots and drums for days so the sparrows could not land, until they dropped dead from exhaustion. Hundreds of millions killed. Then came the locusts, which the sparrows had been eating. The harvest was devoured. The country had to import sparrows from the Soviet Union. A single conversation with an ornithologist – or a farmer – would have prevented it. There was no such conversation, because by then nobody told Mao anything he had not already decided.
2. The backyard furnaces. He wanted to overtake British steel production, so ordinary people were ordered to smelt steel in their yards. Millions of households melted down their own pots, tools, door handles and farm implements in mud furnaces, burning their furniture and their doors for fuel. What came out was unusable pig iron, immediately discarded. They had destroyed working tools to produce slag. And they had done it during harvest season, so the crops rotted in the fields while the peasantry played at metallurgy.
3. The planting theories. Close planting: crowd the seeds together, because plants of the same class do not compete. Deep ploughing: turn the soil to two metres, because deeper roots mean bigger yields. Both were nonsense, both were imposed nationwide on the authority of a man who had never farmed, and both destroyed the harvest wherever they were applied. The agronomists who knew better had learned what happened to agronomists who knew better.
4. Then the lie ate the country. Local officials, facing quotas and terror, reported harvests that did not exist. The state requisitioned grain proportional to the fake numbers. So the villages that had reported the biggest imaginary surpluses had the most real grain taken away. People starved beside empty granaries while China exported food to prove the Leap was working. This is the systemic lie in its purest form: a country that had made truth a crime, then starved on the arithmetic.
5. Between 45 and 80 million dead. The range is that wide because nobody counted – counting would have been a political act. And when Mao was informed, at the Lushan conference in 1959, that the policy was killing people, the man who told him was denounced and purged, and the campaign was intensified. There is no version of this where he did not know. There is only a version where knowing did not matter.
6. Then he did it again to the mind. The Cultural Revolution: students beating teachers, children denouncing parents, temples and libraries and instruments burned, a decade spent severing a four-thousand-year-old civilization from its own memory. Not a side effect – the objective. Destroy the transmission and the new man appears. The new man did not appear. Only the wreckage did.
7. And all the while, Paris applauded. The French intelligentsia – professors, editors, philosophers, entire journals – declared Maoism the future, made the Little Red Book fashionable, and treated any report of the famine as reactionary propaganda. They were not deceived; the reports were available. They simply preferred the theory to the peasants. Sartre and his circle backed the Cultural Revolution while it was burning the libraries. They paid nothing. They were never asked to.
The lesson is not that Mao was evil, though he was. It is that he was stupid – and that stupidity at the top is only lethal when nothing below can correct it. Kill the price signal, kill the free press, kill the expert who contradicts you, and there is no mechanism left to stop a bad idea about sparrows before it becomes forty-five million funerals.
Every system that abolishes correction eventually kills at the scale of its own ignorance. Mao’s ignorance was enormous, and so was his population.
And his portrait still hangs over Tiananmen Square.
Pol Pot – What Happens When a True Believer Takes Power.
He learned it in Paris. And he thought it was for real – not just the moral posturing of irresponsible French intellectuals in their Parisian cafés.
That was the difference. And the difference was two million dead.
Most communist leaders were opportunists. They used the ideology to seize power, and once they had it, the ideology bent to serve the power. Stalin was a gangster with a philosophy. Mao was a warlord with a manifesto. They killed millions – but in the service of control, not conviction.
Pol Pot was a true believer. And that made him the most dangerous kind.
In the early 1950s, as a scholarship student in Paris, he encountered the French Communist Party, the Marxist study circles, the cafés of the Latin Quarter where the ideas circulated among students who would never face the consequences of taking them seriously. The French intellectuals produced these ideas from comfortable apartments – moral posturing, civilizational performance, the gesture of opposition without the risk of implementation. They never intended it to be taken literally.
Pol Pot took it literally.
He returned to Cambodia with the complete theory in his head and the absolute conviction that it was correct. And when he took power in April 1975, he did not wait. Within days – within days – he ordered the complete evacuation of Phnom Penh. Two million people expelled from the capital on foot, at gunpoint, regardless of age or condition. Hospitals emptied. Patients wheeled out on their beds into the street. Because the city was the problem – the center of capitalism, corruption, bourgeois contamination. An honest communist works in the fields. So everyone would work in the fields.
Then he abolished money. Completely. Overnight. The most total implementation of Marxist economics ever attempted – no currency, no markets, no private property, no trade. The economy would be organized by the Angkar – the Organization, which knew what people needed and would provide it. This is what the theory says. He did what it said.
Year Zero. The past abolished. The educated eliminated – they carried the old consciousness in their heads. The family destroyed – it created loyalties that competed with the collective. Glasses confiscated – wearing them suggested literacy, which suggested education, which suggested bourgeois contamination. The killing fields were not a deviation from the theory. They were its conclusion, applied by a man who had read the texts carefully and believed them completely.
Between 1975 and 1979, approximately two million Cambodians died – a quarter of the entire population. Executed, starved, worked to death.
The French intellectuals who produced the ideas that formed him were never held responsible. Sartre continued to write. The cafés continued to operate. In the universities of Paris and Berkeley and Columbia, professors explained that Cambodia was a deviation, an excess, a misapplication.
It was not a deviation. It was the experiment. The answer to the question: what happens when you take the theory seriously and have the power to implement it without constraint?
The intellectuals who taught him went home for dinner. He went home to Cambodia.
That is the difference between posturing and belief. And it is why ideas have consequences – especially the ones that are never meant to be taken seriously.
volition retweeted
I’m Niuean, Tongan, Māori and English.
A Kiwi’s race should never lower the bar into medicine.
RNZ interviewed me on MAPAS. They didn’t use it.
Here’s the full exchange:
volition retweeted
𝗧𝗲 𝗣ā𝘁𝗶 𝗠ā𝗼𝗿𝗶 𝘀𝗲𝗻𝗱𝘀 $𝟭𝗯 𝗽𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝘁𝗼 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻
"Te Pāti Māori has promised a $1 billion energy fund without identifying a dollar of savings to pay for it. Unless it can explain what it would cut, that means another billion dollars borrowed and another bill left for the next generation,” says ACT Energy and Resources spokesperson Simon Court.
“Treasury’s Budget forecast puts net core Crown debt at $192 billion, or around $35,000 for every New Zealander. Servicing that debt already costs taxpayers about $9 billion a year, more than police, courts and prisons combined.
“Against that backdrop, Te Pāti Māori wants a new fund handing out grants, cheap finance, guarantees and government equity without a plan to pay for it.
“New Zealand does need more affordable and reliable energy. The answer is to make it easier to build new generation, connect it to the grid and compete for customers – not borrow another billion dollars so politicians can pick who owns it.
“ACT has secured $14 billion in savings this term, but the Government has only slowed the debt problem, not stopped it. ACT’s job is to push the Government to go further and faster.
“Every dollar spent on interest is a dollar that cannot go to nurses, classrooms or police. ACT will cut waste and red tape, return the books to surplus and rebuild the buffer for the next crisis – with no new taxes.
“Te Pāti Māori is making promises today and sending the invoice to children still learning their times tables. ACT will cut waste, pay down debt and unlock New Zealand’s potential.”
volition retweeted
"The difference between a welfare state and a totalitarian state is a matter of time." — Ayn Rand
volition retweeted
You can now see which CashTokens are being transferred on @buyhodlsell. Genuinely a (small but) huge update.
Also new juicy stats. I watch the flow semi-regularly. This will help clearly see what projects are getting on-chain traction.
Check it out!
buyhodlsell.com/tx-watch
volition retweeted
I wrote an article about what really happened at Metaplanet, in plain English, and why so many of the influencers are quiet about it.
volition retweeted
This is why Act get my vote ❤️
Today is a major turning point for democratic accountability and equal rights in New Zealand.
ACT Party Leader David Seymour has announced a major new policy reform targeting the Waitangi Tribunal: ACT will support the completion of remaining historical Treaty claims, strip the Tribunal of its contemporary jurisdiction, and disestablish it entirely once historical settlements are concluded.
At Hobson’s Pledge, we fully support this step. While our long-held position has been the complete abolition of the Waitangi Tribunal, our stance has always been rooted in finishing genuine, historical redress properly. ACT’s newly announced policy aligns directly with that principle.
The original purpose of the Tribunal was to assist with historical redress and see where the Crown may have breached rights. But the institution operating today is unrecognisable. The Tribunal has morphed into an activist body that continually interferes with the decisions of democratically elected governments.
Instead of focusing on past grievances, the Tribunal regularly passes judgment on modern-day government policy, attempting to steer executive decisions that belong strictly to Parliament and the voters. Just about every decision it renders goes against the Crown, revealing a biased, expensive, and expanding waste of taxpayer money.
Just in recent months, the Waitangi Tribunal has been investigating the Government’s education changes, its decision to clarify Treaty clauses in legislation, disability support and more. All of these are matters for our democratically elected Parliament to be debating and considering, not for an activist Tribunal to be trying to insert itself into.
volition retweeted
Yes!!!! Finally a political party has the guts to campaign on a policy people have been begging for.
stuff.co.nz/politics/3610314…
