Diary for speculative market analysis and frequent political musings. L/S enjoyer

Joined January 2021
The name of a killed service member covered up by a Dow Jones index ticker is a pretty grim metaphor for how America often operates.
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Frothy Assets retweeted
I want to be clear: the rioters have no legitimate demands. French social spending is too high, not too low. This is mostly ethnic warfare and just plain low-IQ low impulse control violence from third-world savages incompatible with Western civilization.
NOW - Chaos at Place de la République in Paris, France.
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We can’t just have a 35% drawdown in QQQ without it hurting everyone. Much of the economy is tied to asset prices via wealth effect and businesses more directly. A collapse of the AI trade/equities would have ripple effects. It would at least solve the inflation problem though. A better argument than the OP imo, perhaps this is what’s meant: ‘if the AI-related capital allocation is bad/bubble, it is probably better to pop before it gets any bigger.’
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I will note that positioning for an AI slowdown and acknowledging the consequences of said slowdown are two different things. I want to clarify that I’m not rooting for AI-backstops or anything, only acknowledging that an unwind would be painful for the country economically. If these AI capex bets are wrong, those players should be allowed to fail.
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Frothy Assets retweeted
In France, benefits are "free." They're free the way dinner is free when someone else pays the bill. For forty years that someone has been the next generation, and the bond market has been the go-between. France already taxes more than any other G10 economy, and it borrows to fund the welfare state. Now the rent is coming due:
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Frothy Assets retweeted
I thought MMT meant inflation was the constraint. But then we got partly fiscal-induced inflation and their proposed solution was student loan debt relief and price controls. So I’m left confused about what they mean by anything.
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Frothy Assets retweeted
Plumber Seizes the Moment as Toilet Overflows
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Frothy Assets retweeted
🔴 MOC IMBALANCE S&P 500: -3610.1 MLN NASDAQ 100: -3048.4 MLN DOW 30: -1347.1 MLN MAG 7: -1652.0 MLN $MACRO
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1) Boomers have had major tailwinds of economic growth and asset appreciation. Now in positions of political power to protect own interests. 2) Millennials have benefited from proximity to boomer wealth. 3) Generation beta will be able to reap the rewards of Trump accounts. 4) Gen Z at least got to experience 2012 white girl pop music.
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Alright that’s it, maybe Apple is a short? 36x forward? Seems a bit much.
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Last week was the worst weekly performance for the Beta factor in over 20 years, including 2008 per BofA
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How does he do it? $ORR
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Frothy Assets retweeted
Hey @x please get rid of this new fintwit reply spam format. You are letting it run rampant.
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Frothy Assets retweeted
Premise: Incentives drive all human behavior. The corollary: How to destroy a country: A vast social security and support system that serves as a magnet for those who would rather not work. An open immigration policy that does not screen immigrants to determine their ability and willingness to provide for themselves and their families. An open immigration policy that does not screen for political and/or religious ideologies that are a threat to the country. Economic incentives large enough to incentivize immigrants on the state dole to have large numbers of children, but insufficient for educated and economically productive mothers to be able to quit to raise a family. The declining fertility of the most educated and productive women due to their delay to begin a family as a result of their desire and/or need to advance their careers, among other reasons, to live a life they deem consistent with their educational achievements and/or to repay their student debts. Amnesty programs that give citizenship and voting power to illegal immigrants without consideration of their economic productivity or their threat to the country due to their religious or political ideologies. The changing demographics and increased population due to the above factors. The state responding to protests by increasing social support. The continued failure to punish and hold accountable violent and looting rioters. Government managed by a massive and growing unelected bureaucracy. Government fraud, waste, and abuse contributed to ballooning budgets. Anti-business legislation that makes it difficult for businesses to compete in a global marketplace being disrupted by AI, including restrictions on firing even poorly performing employees. Overly burdensome, globally uncompetitive, corporate taxation. Continuous increases in personal taxes to raise funds to provide for the rapidly growing welfare state. The substantial majority of the tax burden levied on a small percentage of the population. A growing percentage of the electorate paying no taxes and receiving welfare. The introduction or threat of a wealth tax including the taxation of unrealized gains, i.e., taxes on paper wealth. The flight of the most productive business builders and highest taxpayers to lower tax countries with lesser security concerns. A growing percentage of the electorate voting for candidates that support increased welfare and laws favorable to, and/or that match the cultural and ideological needs and desires of a growing unproductive immigrant population. The rapid rise in anti-semitism and inadequate efforts to address this hatred. Increased borrowing by the state to fund the growing social burden. Higher sovereign interest rates due to all of the above. The resulting need to reduce expenditures to make the math work. Increasingly violent protests that make life less livable for the productive and law abiding citizens leading to their accelerated departure. And so on…
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A very levered player, yet shares have been weak during a huge semis bull market. Plenty of in-depth balance sheet discussions, less on their lack of success during peak semis-utopia.
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Imagine even a period of chop for semis… If interest rates fall bigly, it won’t be for no reason, it will be because of a slowing economy.
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With that said, I think given huge short interest it makes for explosive squeeze setups when they don’t go bankrupt overnight. Nvidia hasn’t even hinted at a backstop yet. Neoclouds can also raise cash and issue more shares. I don’t really believe in day trading but this name especially provides nice setups given it’s a crowded short. Days like last week Thursday. Certainly wouldn’t want to be long any overnight. Given net short equities, I like the idea of trend following this on the long side during squeezy-froth days. A very crowded short.
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Frothy Assets retweeted
If ever there were a metaphor for why our nations are in ruin, it's a bunch of Boomers dancing on the banks of the Seine while the sons of the third world burn Paris to the ground.
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Frothy Assets retweeted
something I have in R&D for LIQN but a good day for a beta run.... "How do I read the factors moves and what is the map?" this is the question we are trying to simplify for everyone to make clear on a day in & day out basis 1. Yesterday was an unwind -> Today is just Risk Off *yesterday: shorts were squeezed while winners slipped (Most Shorted +4.8%, Momentum 12-1 −0.4%), with the market flat (SPY +0.28%). The crowd fell −2.9% *Today: the market is down (SPY −1.1%, High Beta Tech −5.4%, Defensives +0.70%), but the crowd is flat at +0.1%. Its shorts (−3.8%) are falling about as much as its longs (−3.7%), so its hedges are working 2. The setup says more unwinds ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY, not less - "the crowded" gained +12.3% in the 21 sessions to Oct 14, a 96%-tile run over last 1yr - history after an unwind day: another followed within 10 sessions ~60% of the time vs ~30% normally - The WATCH OUT window runs through about Oct 29 3. Watch the shorts, not the tech selloff Today's lesson: a −5% day in High Beta Tech looks like an unwind but isn't one. What tells you is whether the most-shorted stocks rally while the winners fall (yest.) - Where it would likely hit (higher probability): the crowd's biggest long themes (our internal labels) - AI Complete Stack trade - AI Security (software) - Drug Discovery & Biotech - Supply Chain & Logistics - Digital Transformation *today in context of other major recent market event days
Jared and LIQUIDATION NATION strikes again with the warning yesterday. Once again I didn’t see this post until now lol 😂
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Frothy Assets retweeted
Replying to @blondesnmoney
The most obvious disaster in the making is the slowing pace of the new AI data center buildouts. Starts have come to a crawl (mostly permitting issues) and in-progress ones are taking longer than expected to complete. If they are not able to complete the AI data centers, then capex gets cut (nowhere to put the semis already purchased) but the debt still comes due.
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Frothy Assets retweeted
Only 9 days had a bigger VIX move relative to the -1.1% SPX move weird.
SPX vol really woke up here, suggesting hedges coming in. This is day over day change in 1-month skew
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