How to make COMESA work starts with acknowledging the competition. COMESA is competing with China and the United States, economies with a capitalist posture and deep pockets to fund their entrepreneurs and businesses. A capitalist posture, at home and abroad, means business and the state speak and behave in congruence. We saw this in the development of AI. China and America gave their entrepreneurs regulatory freedom at home while actively advancing their interests abroad. Europe, by contrast, regulated AI so heavily that much of its industry was strangled at birth. Are Comesa governments capitalist? Or businesses are fighting the state at home… The financing gap is just as stark. China has the Silk Road Fund and deep pocketed state backed banks. America wields enormous influence through its shareholding in World Bank, IMF and IFC. COMESA cannot compete on those terms. TDB, important as it is, is simply too small. If COMESA is to be taken seriously then member states must be capitalist and show their teeth by recapitalising TDB to a massive scale.

COMESA is a US$1 trillion market of 21 countries, 16 of them already inside a free trade area with zero tariffs on qualifying goods. Yet intra COMESA exports were just US$14 billion in 2024, against US$202 billion sold to the rest of the world. COMESA, SADC, the Tripartite FTA and now AfCFTA have given Africa no shortage of architecture. The curious bit is how little commerce seems to pass through it. Europe eventually discovered that a common market requires more than permission for a crate of goods to cross a border. Its single market rests on the free movement of goods, services, capital and people. Africa is trying to build something similar through cherry picking at precisely the moment the political fashion is running the other way. Borders are hardening, immigration is unpopular and nationalism is enjoying a revival. The AU’s Free Movement Protocol has still not entered into force. Business may be ready for the African common market. Governments appear rather less enthusiastic about the Africans who would have to move around it….and voters frankly don’t want to hear about . It’s Friday, let’s relax a little and pick your drink of choice and let’s discuss.

Zimbabwe claims its economy is more than twice the size of Zambia’s and roughly the same size as Uganda’s. This despite Zambia consuming considerably more electricity and fuel, while Uganda runs a national budget twice the size of Zimbabwe’s. Analysts have a duty to test claims and publish their findings. That is precisely what economic analysis is for. Official statistics are not holy writ, in many ways they benefit from critical analysis and feedback. Which technical feedback we have happily supplied . Thank you for your attention to this matter.

Why should Africa worry about France? A French fiscal crisis would not stay French. It will become soon enough a European issue as the same problem prevails across Europe. Bond Yields rise, banks reprice risk and borrowing costs increase across Europe. The effects would spread beyond Europe. A European debt crisis would weaken global growth, reduce investment and put pressure on industrial commodity demand. Africa is particularly exposed. Bilateral aid to sub-Saharan Africa fell 26.3% in 2025 and is projected to fall another 11.6% in 2026. France itself cut aid by 10.9% last year. Commercial finance is already expensive. Kenya borrowed at 7.9% and 8.8% last year, while Angola paid 9.25% and 9.78%. A European sovereign shock would push global risk premiums higher just as African governments need to refinance. Less aid, more expensive capital, weaker exports and softer commodity demand. That is the African risk from a European debt crisis. That’s why we must keenly follow what is happening in France and more importantly how ECB will behave.

France will seek an EU bailout soon enough. The problem this time is that Europe no longer has enough healthy adults left in the room. Greece could be carried by Germany, Britain and France. Who carries France when Spain and Italy are also lining up for help? The genius of the EU was monetary and trade integration while fiscal responsibility remained with member states. Once bailouts became part of the architecture, that discipline began to unravel. I wonder if Andy will still be making his wild promises about rejoining the EU when the club starts passing the collection plate around.