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Yesterday in their Earnings Call, Strategy announced that they would eventually target a 50-60% amplification ratio as they retire their convertible debt, which they feel they can safely achieve through STRC issuance mainly.
Strive is in a position to lead and target that now if they choose to, assuming SATA's growth trajectory continues, and due to having only 0.8% leverage - the balance sheet Strategy are trying to get to in the coming years. I have modelled out to Jan '28 a linear growth of bitcoin to $240k for the sake of this model, the power law trend price for that date.
I have then worked out the SATA issuance to balance the amplification levels at 40%, 50% and 60% through the ATM, as it matures and digital credit as an ecosystem grows. I have the terminal SATA yield at 13.5%.
Amplification can remain in the target ranges despite large SATA issuance with a power law mean reversion. There is 0 need for common stock ATM if bitcoin averages the growth this chart depicts. This is because amplification = debt + preferred outstanding / bitcoin NAV, and the bitcoin NAV is rising in this scenario to counteract the SATA issuance growth.
At 50% amplification, and assuming no common stock is issued, btc yield would be 210% cumulative (very) roughly, at $240k by Jan '28. This would require the market cap of SATA to be 5.4 billion in this scenario, nearly 11x from here. Feasible in 21 months with the way things are going imo.
A near 100% annualised yield could justify a much higher mNAV.
Note: this model is obviously not accurate, as bitcoin doesn't go in a straight line, nor does growth of a novel product like SATA. Just indicative of what's possible.
Freds retweeted
#Bitcoin: Since 2016 we’ve only seen acceptance above the 30w/Cloud from the underside following re-accumulation on 4 occasions
We are now on the 5th….the other 4 paths from same technical point are illustrated
Freds retweeted
I use long-term money-supply trends as an important factor in assessing the cost of capital we should be willing to underwrite to amplify Bitcoin. We’ve covered in depth why Amplification Ratio is the key determinant of Strive’s ability to outperform Bitcoin, and why cost of capital matters less. I hope this historical framework, viewed alongside Bitcoin, helps those seeking a deeper understanding.
Scarcity has consistently outperformed debasement over the past 55-plus years. Gold has compounded faster than M2 in every period shown: 9.0% vs. 6.7% since 1970, 9.5% vs. 6.3% since the GFC, and 18.3% vs. 6.5% since COVID. Bitcoin is digital gold, a superior store of value whose emergence remains in its early stages. It should outperform gold as it matures. Our thesis depends on long-term monetary debasement continuing. Our believe is the trend is unbreakable, and as the debt crisis continues to worsen, the outperformance of scarce assets will perpetually accelerate (not decelerate) relative to the dollar in CAGR terms vs historicals.
If you accept that premise, as we do, the only challenge becomes building and sustaining a high Amplification Ratio without blowing up. It sounds simple, but it is extraordinarily difficult. I don’t believe most investors understand nor properly value the moat Strive has built around high Bitcoin amplification with high liquidity, and I don’t expect most to recognize it until Bitcoin makes sustainable new all-time highs.
The consensus investor remains fixated on the cost of capital and fiat cash flows. That is understandable, but it means picking up pennies in front of the debasement steamroller. When you truly internalize the principles of a Bitcoin standard, the focus becomes crystal clear: be maximally and perpetually short dollars and long Bitcoin.
$ASST $SATA $SATS
Freds retweeted
STRIVE ($ASST): Where is the cash coming from to fund the new SATS dividend reserve?
Strive’s SATS prospectus calls for an 18-month dividend reserve of $22.50 per preferred share.
With the offering upsized to 7M shares, that’s $157.5M in additional reserves.
Let’s reconstruct the liquidity from recent SEC filings.
Available liquidity:
$310.3M cash (Oct. 9)
$50.3M STRC securities (Oct. 9)
$369.2M expected proceeds from final $27 warrant exercises
Less ~$235.0M in reported BTC purchases (Oct. 12–13)
Estimated remaining warrant cash: $134.2M
Total estimated liquidity: $494.8M
Dividend reserve requirements:
SATA: ~$273.6M (18 months at 13%, 14.03M shares)
SATS: $157.5M (18 months at 15%, 7M shares)
Combined: $431.1M
Illustrative surplus: ~$63.7M.
The math appears to work, and the final warrant exercises explain much of the liquidity required for SATS.
The question for @Strive
How much cash and marketable securities will remain unrestricted after funding both preferred dividend reserves?
Sources: SEC 8-Ks (Oct. 13–14), SATS prospectus, Oct. 15 pricing announcement. @PunterJeff @ColeMacro @Werkman
My thoughts on Strive's new SATS perpetual preferred, as an $ASST shareholder.
Let's start with the facts:
-15% fixed rate on $100.
-Cumulative dividends paid every business day.
-Junior to SATA.
SATS has no target trading range and no general call. If it trades to $110, buyers get ~13.6% and once it's listed Strive can ATM it whenever they want. The effective cost of capital falls the better it trades.
So why now?
The short answer is to increase amplification while Bitcoin is cheap.
After the warrant exercises, amplification fell to ~47%.
A significant amount of capital is needed to re-amplify the balance sheet. SATS aims to raise $500M, potentially $1B if upsized, which could bring amplification back towards 60%.
An IPO of a new product is the easiest way to do this and doing it while Bitcoin is cheap gives greater returns going forward.
The second reason is to expand the ways Strive can amplify, with a fixed-rate product alongside the variable-rate SATA.
Compare it to Strategy.
Their fixed-rate STRF sits at the top of the capital stack. It's the industry's gold standard, ~$1.3B notional, trading at an effective yield of around 9.7%.
Their junior fixed-rate STRD has $1.4B notional and is non-cumulative.
Strive has done it the other way round. The variable-rate SATA sits at the top. The fixed-rate SATS sits beneath it, and unlike STRD, SATS is cumulative.
I don't believe SATS cannibalises SATA. If anything, it makes SATA stronger.
SATA asset coverage (Bitcoin, cash and STRC) with BTC at $83,500:
-Today: ~2.47x
-After a $500M SATS raise: ~2.83x
-After a $1B SATS raise: ~3.18x
I admit one preferred and one common stock was beautifully simple.
That said, I believe the trade-off is worth it. Strive now has a variable-rate product, a fixed-rate product and another tool to amplify the balance sheet.
In the long run, I think they'll ATM SATS whenever it trades above $100, lowering the cost of capital. Either way it doesn't matter. I expect Bitcoin to outperform 15% over time.
That's what we're all betting on and why we want amplification but remember they don't have to issue another SATS share if they don’t want to.
To put it simply, this is a quick way to raise $500M-$1B and re-amplify the balance sheet while Bitcoin is cheap.
I expect SATA to remain the premier product, just as STRC draws far more interest than STRF or STRD.
Ultimately, this is a land grab
Amplify now while Bitcoin is cheap, not later when it's far more expensive.
I am very bullish on $ASST.
Freds retweeted
📊 BTC's latest signal is bigger than price.
The momentum signal has turned positive, with trend and volatility now aligned behind recent price strength. Historically, that combination has been associated with more sustained advances.
The key question now: Will capital flows and participation validate the signal?
$369M warrant cash received
$235M spent on BTC
$134M left as cash
$500M SATS IPO required cash reserve = $112.5M
$134M for potentially oversubscribed SATS cash reserve?
SATS Proceeds -> all into Bitcoin?
Freds retweeted
The new state of $ASST amplification post warrant expiry: Yes I'm even more bullish than ever.
The $ASST warrant overhang is officially over and even though we don't have an official 8-K confirming the amount of warrants exercised, I am going to work under the assumption that the vast majority of warrant holders don't hate money, and therefore exercised.
Going into the day yesterday, the amplification according to Strive's website was around 51% but 15 million warrants getting exercised was a deamplification event. Adding in the new $411 million of bitcoin pushes the amplification down to ~44.6%.
Prior to yesterday, I was assuming that it would take the $SATA engine running hot for 4 to 5 weeks to reamplify their stack to current levels, which in the scheme of things isn't that long.
Enter $SATS. The new plan is to raise $500 million dollars after funding their dividend reserve, it will leave $387.5 million for btc purchases. Just like $SATA, $SATS drives amplification, so our new amplification comes out to be ~53.6%
So, instead of waiting a month for reamplification, if the IPO goes off as planned we're looking at the cash hitting $ASST's books next week.
Fun fact. Sats per share will jump by 12% to 16% depending on the price of $BTC when they buy it. Furthermore, $SATA and $SATS can work together to push that amplification up towards that 60%-70% goal, think weeks, not months.
What do you think? Bullish enough?
The beauty of SATS is the flexibility it brings to Strive for amplification.
The ability to issue it tactically at a lower btc price/whenever preferable regardless of the nominal price, and that they can let the price run if conditions aren’t as favourable to issue from.
We will have to watch $SATA in its wake, but I am extremely positive on this move. I don’t think anyone’s questioning whether it will have demand at 15%.
Freds retweeted
Strive plans to release an 8-k with additional information regarding final warrant exercises and additional Bitcoin purchases tomorrow pre-market open.
Please visit our website for additional information regarding SATS:
strive.com/sats-ipo/
I love this company so much
Strive is offering $SATS through an IPO available to select investors.
- 15% fixed-rate perpetual preferred stock
- Cumulative dividends paid every business day
- Junior to SATA
INVESTOR PRESENTATION TIMESTAMPS
00:00 - Introducing SATS
01:46 - Executive Summary
18:50 - SATS Improves SATA
21:06 - Dividend and Balance Sheet Strength
27:33 - Performance and Liquidity
30:48 - Bitcoin Thesis
40:26 - Amplification and Risk
$SATS $ASST $SATA
Run by fools
Britain loses over half its billionaire wealth in two years bit.ly/4AMeQj8
Freds retweeted
Since $ASST got stuck in this $30 range by the warrants, they have increased their bitcoin per share by 13% in the same time $BTC is up 13% from 76,200 to 86,100.
Those percentages compound to a ~28% increase in value to the underlying stock. No premium added.
This is the last week of warrant suppression. Buckle up.
Study $ASST
Replying to @DrStarHeartsong
Just made a post. They are up 13% btc per share and btc is up by 13% all since they got stuck at 30 on sept 18th. We're about to rip.
$ASST Price Predictions — price to be reached at least once by each end date:
Using conservative midpoint assumptions across three variables: BTC price, sats/share and gross BTC mNAV.
By Dec ’26: >$44
By Jan ’28: >$180
By Dec ‘30: >$400
NFA — just for fun.
Freds retweeted
Replying to @ChrisMMillas @Werkman
With current prices and conditions, I’d easily be comfortable *driving* amplification to 70% with an 18-month reserve.
If Bitcoin dropped from here & amplification rose further, I’d be fine with it. The bull thesis is right or it’s wrong, & I’m confident it’s right. Take risk!
Freds retweeted
IMPORTANT POST
Our industry became too focused on protecting downside risk and inadequately focused on maximizing Total Returns to the upside.
In my view, the entire purpose of our structured finance business model must be to maximize Total Returns for common equity shareholders. Our industry needs more amplification. Even at Strive, where we have the highest Amplification Ratio among Digital Credit issuers, when I look at the risk embedded in our capital structure relative to our amplification, I believe we have room to take it up another notch or two.
Building a rocket ship is extraordinarily difficult and requires underwriting and taking real risk. The mission requires not blowing up, but you need an engine powerful enough to reach the moon. Based on Amplification Ratio alone, I view the risk of true issuer failure from over-amplification as very low across our industry today. Amplification Ratio obviously cannot capture every risk, including debt terms, covenants, maturity walls, liquidity constraints, and other structural risks. But controlling for those risks should give issuers significant confidence to take amplification materially higher. That is exactly what we have done at Strive, and I hope others increasingly copy it.
I’ve written extensively about why Amplification Ratio will be the single most important driver of outright and relative Total Returns in a Bitcoin bull market. However, I believe incentives naturally push toward under-amplification, modest Bitcoin outperformance, and the safest possible path. My goal with this post is to light a fire and push our industry to think bigger, focus more aggressively on growth and Total Returns, and push the frontier of what our business models can achieve.
We have a shared mission across the industry to grow Digital Credit from a nascent asset class into a massive global capital market. That requires trusted issuers, deep liquidity, disciplined execution, and investor confidence. That is where we all should work together, but make no mistake about what will crown the fastest horse in a Bitcoin bull market: the engine.
Our mandate at Strive is to build the thing we actually want to own and recruit and retain exceptionally talented people who desire that risk and return opportunity and understand the business model that needs to be built. That mindset drove our execution in building a high Amplification Ratio, helped create strong liquidity, and is also why we are not satisfied with where we are. With Bitcoin under $100,000, our desire is to take Amplification Ratio higher from here.
If the Bitcoin bull thesis is right, amplification will be the most important thing. If the Bitcoin thesis is wrong, a few hundred basis points of cost of capital won’t be the difference between success and failure. The model itself will have failed.
I love capitalism. I love competition. I want more competition for the fastest horse. The next 10–15 years will be the Digital Gold Rush for Bitcoin.
Let’s act like it.
Freds retweeted
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Trump says inflation could pay down the $40 trillion US national debt "very rapidly."





















