@formerlypeter
Account based inUnited States
About this account
- Account based in
- United States
- Connected via
- United States App Store
Account-level information from X, not a live location or the device used for a specific post.
“The chains of habit are too light to be felt until they’re too heavy to be broken.”
Pick out the person in your life you admire the most. Write down why you admire them. Put a list of qualities.
And then put down the person you can stand the least. And put down the qualities that turn you off in that person.
You’ll find it’s not a bunch of things like throwing a football 70 yards. The qualities of the first one are qualities that you can make your own. And with practice, can become habit-forming.
You will have the habits 20 years from now that put into practice today. So look at the habits you admire in others, and make those your own habits. And look at what you find reprehensible, and decide that those are things you are not going to do.
Ben Franklin did this 200 years ago, and it still works today.
The original saying stems from Samuel Johnson in 1748. “the diminutive chains of habit are seldom heavy enough to be felt, till they are too strong to be broken”
Aydin retweeted
Graham and Buffett made value investing sound noble. Nobody told you it means holding a stock at 4x earnings for three years while it does absolutely nothing. Nobody told you the 'catalyst' might never come. Nobody told you that cheap stocks can get cheaper, that management can burn the cash, that the market can ignore fundamentals longer than you can stay sane. You're not early. You're not a contrarian genius. You're just a guy holding a bag of 'undervalued' while index funds and meme stocks lap you. And the worst part? You'll buy more tomorrow.
Even tho nobody sees my shit, posting here is kinda cathartic and a good exercise in doing whatever tf I want
Yields at 20y highs and homebuilders look like shit right now … which means they’re on SALE 🛍️ 😍
get in boys we’re going shopping
There’s a reason Berkshire just bought Taylor Morrison and has been loading Lennar up
$DFH: ~1x tangible book + huge Beazer upside
$LEN: ~0.84x book
$MTH : ~0.8x book + ~8% shareholder yield
$KBH: ~0.8x book + aggressive buybacks
$CCS: ~0.7x book
$DFH is the one I want to do something irresponsible with 🤭. $MTH is the one I should probably take home to mom.
DFH is the high-risk/high-reward bet here. The Beazer acquisition was done at a purchase price of 80% tangible book. The financing is ugly, but if Zalupski can integrate it, pull out the $100m+ in synergies and delever, the earnings power against a ~$1B market cap looks insane. He’s done it before with other acquisitions but this is truly the largest beast in front of him yet. they’ll be the 6th largest homebuilder at a $1B cap today, with their peers in the top 10 trading at $3B-4B+.
MTH is much less exciting, but that’s kinda the appeal. Cleaner balance sheet, buying back stock below book, paying me a dividend, and I don’t need nearly as much to go right.
Housing can stay shitty for a while. I’m not betting on mortgage rates magically collapsing tomorrow. I’m betting that buying decent homebuilders around/below book while everyone hates housing is a pretty good place to go fishing, even IF rates continue to rise.
its undisputed that covid was used as a pretext to further suppress the hong kong democracy protests, right?
all the "plandemic" conspiracy theorists have all sorts of crazy theories but isn't hk the most obvious one? 🤔
timing was literally perfect, swung momentum completely against hk, along w the national security law
im just saying. i wonder what outlandish events will occur in the same year china takes a stab at taiwan
YC is over. I can finally stop pretending I’d rather own your AI startup than a dying cable company that shits out a billion dollars a year.
$VSNT is guiding $1B–$1.2B in FCF on a ~$5B market cap. A 20–24% yield.
~4% dividend yield. ~8% buyback yield. Remaining cash toward debt reduction and reinvestment.
My batchmates are betting on the singularity. I’m betting your dad can’t find the cancel subscription button.
I (literally) sat on my keyboard one day while browsing stocks and this thing popped up. After its 1st real earnings, it’s my favorite position.
$VSNT with a huge quarter. Pretty much as expected. Biggest part is the revenue looks fairly solid, and cash flows even sturdier.
$500m+ in FCF/owner earnings this quarter. For a $6B market cap, this thing trades at a cheaper multiple on a quarterly basis than some media companies annually. If they keep up the pace and go for $2B in FCF/owner earnings this year, there’s no way they trade at a 3x multiple forever. This thing will rerate hard.
Maybe the safest feeling position in my portfolio right now. Bought back $100m of stock this quarter too. Announced another Accelerated Share Repurchase for $100m that they expect to complete 2nd quarter.
Just paid out $50m in dividends to shareholders this quarter. Thats a 3.5% dividend yield on top of a still super cheap stock.
Theres a lot going for this stock, and the only thing not to like is the $2B they paid Comcast in fees to split off. Thats long term debt on the balance sheet for now, but it’s the only debt they have.
I got in low $30’s. I think this thing hits $100 eventually.
my feed has been full of people putting fly brain through various torture methods and crazy sick jev use cases
makes me wanna BUILD
Aydin retweeted
In 2009, Warren Buffett had a choice: buy Harley-Davidson stock at around $12 a share, or lend the company money at 15% interest.
He chose the debt.
Berkshire put up $300 million for a five-year note.
At the 2010 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, a shareholder asked the obvious question:
Why take a fixed return?
This two-minute clip is one of the clearest examples I’ve seen of Buffett thinking through that trade-off in real time.
The arrogance of medical professionals …
Me: *requests routine blood panel*
Dr: “why are you requesting this? Is something wrong with you?”
Me: “no, just routine bloodwork for the first time in 2 years”
Dr: “that is not normal. There is an epidemic of tiktok bros who want bloodwork done. Nobody actually needs routine bloodwork. I spent 5 years to get this *points to license* how about you trust me”
Me: “well I can prove you wrong, can I try?”
Dr: “no you cannot. I am a very good listener and always willing to learn new information, but you cannot prove to me this is useful.”
Me: “ … you just contradicted yourself. the last time I got bloodwork done I found something wrong and was able to fix it very quickly. *explains said medical condition* I wouldn’t have known about it without bloodwork”
Dr: “you are an exception then”
Me: “so can you order labs …?”
Dr: “no”
The same test costs $100-$200 at Quest or similar lab. MicroGenDX will do cultures for similar price points. DEXA scans are cheap now. Sometimes I wonder why I deal with health providers for these smaller routine checkups at all … and the main reason is health insurance. I already pay the damn thing. So I’m stuck dealing with all of it. If someone finds a way to thread the needle of health insurance and self service labs and cultures and services …
I really think there is such a big opportunity there.
Aydin retweeted
Ted Weschler is an interesting guy.
He turned his IRA from $70,000 to $131 million in 22 years.
He did it by holding only a few, very carefully selected, mispriced stocks.
And when I say carefully, I really mean carefully.
Apparently he wouldn't make an investment unless he'd spent 500 hours studying the idea.
In 1989, he co-founded a private equity firm and ran the public securities book there. He used the same approach, and made only 20 investments in 10 years.
In early 2000, he went out on his own and started a hedge fund. Where he smoked the markets again.
He joined Berkshire in 2012 and quickly outperformed Buffett himself. (See the 2013 letter excerpt below.)
None of this was by accident.
Weschler works very hard.
He even takes 10-Ks on vacation with him.
Aydin retweeted
you'd think billionaires would have some fancy exclusive hobbies that only become available once you're rich enough but no, they're here arguing with each other on X just like the rest of us
Correct.
There is a long history of ideas that seemed correct to globalist elites, but proved disastrous for the average American:
“America should outsource its manufacturing to China”
“America should open its borders to tens of millions of illegal immigrants because it’s humane and we need workers”
“America should stop building nuclear power plants, stop fracking, prevent nat gas pipelines, and deindustrialize more broadly due to climate change”
“Let’s have tacit quotas against hiring/promoting white men so that minorities can catch up”
@PalmerLuckey has consistently shown extreme bravery in his willingness to take on unpopular topics