Researcher, speaker, & writer of Somalia’s security, clan politics, ideologies, Also practicing Licensed professional clinical counselor in MN.
Minneapolis and Mogadishu
Joined September 2010
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Deedimayno Geerida, mana ogolin Gumaysi.
We do not refuse death, and we do not accept colonialism. War songs as members of the army leave Mogadishu to frontlines.
0756
Libanawoke this morning to several text messages and emails celebrating what they described as a Democratic victory, accompanied by the declaration, “We got Congress back.”
More than 90% of the voters noted one thing of major concern: cost of living. If Democrats do not address this to the extent they can, then they will lose too.
Liban then went for an early morning walk. Afterward, he noticed that he was able to complete a substantial amount of work earlier than he had planned. This observation suggested a possible connection between his morning walk and his subsequent productivity, although considerable work remained unfinished.
A continuing challenge for Liban was his inconsistent documentation of transitions between activities. He recognized the need to record these transitions more systematically, publish his observations, and discuss them as part of his ongoing examination of how he organizes his time and work.
Sources
1339: Liban maintained strong focus throughout this period, successfully completing four sessions. Despite experiencing some discomfort in his left knee during a significant portion of this time, he found that taking extensive walks was instrumental in facilitating his productivity and ensuring substantial progress on his tasks.
1741
According to early CBS News Exit Polls, voters favored Democrats over Republicans in the 2026 midterms primarily due to widespread economic anxiety and concerns over affordability. Additionally, a massive wave of voter opposition to the war in Iran, combined with the fact that President Trump's job approval rating sat at a low 38%, turned the election into a broad referendum against the sitting administration's policies. [1, 2, 3, 4]
The US Vice president said we lost the vote because of :
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
0947
Liban completed one 52-minute session and is now working on another. He has documented the transition from his previous task, which helped him stay focused on his work.
Samatalis Haille, MA LPCC retweeted
AU plans to take over four Somalia bases as Uganda withdraws somaliatoday.com/security/au…
Samatalis Haille, MA LPCC retweeted
#AUSSOM #UPDF Battle Group 45 Commander Col. Dr. Justus Musenene met with @SNAForce Chief of Defence Forces, Maj. Gen. Ibrahim Mohamed Mohamud at the SNA 08 Brigade HQs in Embresso, Barawe, yesterday.
Discussions focused on the AUSSOM troop drawdown, capacity building and gradual transfer of security responsibilities to Somali forces.
Maj. Gen. Mohamud commended the troops' sacrifice, professionalism and contribution to Somalia's #peace and stability, and praised the @MODVA_UPDF leadership for its commitment to Pan-Africanism and strengthening ties between #Somalia and #Uganda.
Col. Musenene highlighted AUSSOM’s training and mentorship efforts to strengthen Somali forces’ operational independence, welcomed the recognition as a morale boost, and urged Somali troops to consolidate gains achieved through joint operations. Both sides also reviewed operational progress and ideological orientation programmes.
Also present were Maj. Daudi Okema, Maj. David Akandwanaho, Maj. Francis Odede, Maj. Fred Emuron, and SNAF senior officers. #AUSSOMInTheSectors
0801
Liban woke up on time and started his day with a brisk walk. He intended to log his activities but got distracted browsing the internet first. He had a brief moment to log his progress but missed it, instead exploring historical Italian buildings in Mogadishu from 1960. Moving forward, Liban will prioritize logging his transitions, dedicate time to Somalia-related tasks, and focus on his various projects from now on.
Samatalis Haille, MA LPCC retweeted
Somalia’s population is estimated at around 19.4 million people, according to FSNAU population projections.
These figures show how Somalia population is spread across the country, from Awdal in the north to Lower Juba in the south.
📊 Population by Region:
Awdal — 661,373
Woqooyi Galbeed — 1,504,806
Togdheer — 894,876
Sanaag — 445,736
Sool — 570,788
Bari — 1,291,109
Nugaal — 665,960
North Mudug — 663,817
South Mudug — 864,905
Galgaduud — 844,925
Hiiraan — 524,876
Middle Shabelle — 1,053,608
Banaadir — 3,289,438
Lower Shabelle — 1,656,402
Bay — 1,297,550
Bakool — 564,958
Gedo — 1,014,335
Middle Juba — 447,217
Lower Juba — 1,204,269
📌 What do these numbers tell us?
Banaadir, home to the capital Mogadishu, has the largest estimated population, followed by Lower Shabelle and Woqooyi Galbeed.
These figures include people living in cities, villages, rural communities and displacement camps, regardless of whether their areas are controlled by the government or Al-Shabaab.
Understanding where people live is important for fair political representation, public services, schools, hospitals, infrastructure and national development.
Source: FSNAU/IPC Population Projections, April June 2026.
0728
Liban is adjusting to the end of daylight saving time in Minnesota, where clocks fall back an hour each November, as they do across much of the United States. The change is more than a matter of resetting clocks: it is associated with measurable disruption to sleep and the body's daily rhythm ([psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?d…), [pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/article…](pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/article…)). On a recent morning Liban woke near 4:00 a.m. and read the clock as 5:00. About three hours passed, but by his estimate only 30 to 45 minutes went to project work, though he still made progress on several problems. The rest went to transportation, household chores, and browsing the internet to learn about Somalia. He judged the time poorly used.
His diagnosis is that the first minutes of the day set its direction. He now intends to spend the first thirty minutes after waking on evaluation and planning. He will review the previous day for what went well, so he can do more of it, and what went poorly, so he can do less of it, and only then move through the day systematically. Research supports this habit. In field experiments by Di Stefano, Gino, Pisano, and Staats, trainees who spent a few minutes writing about the day's lessons scored about 23 percent higher on their final test ([hbr.org/2014/07/dear-diary](hbr.org/2014/07/dear-diary)). Amabile and Kramer's diary studies of knowledge workers found that visible progress on meaningful work, including small wins, was the strongest driver of motivation and mood. Concrete if-then plans also reliably improve goal achievement (Gollwitzer and Sheeran, sciencedirect.com/science/ch…).[16][82]
Morning news browsing is a poor way to start. Johnston and Davey found that fourteen minutes of negative news increased anxiety and sadness and made personal worries worse. Survey evidence also links problematic news consumption to poorer mental and physical health. Liban's conclusion is not that the news is the problem but that its timing is: the news can wait until the day has been reviewed and planned. Starting tomorrow, the first thirty minutes after waking are for review and planning.[43][44]
1156
Liban demonstrated sustained **focus** and completed necessary tasks. He intended to increase his documentation of transitions to gather sufficient data for developing hypotheses about how his system functions in practice relative to how he plans it. This continued observation would support a more systematic analysis of the relationship between his intended approach and actual task execution.