You say that the times are bad. Be better yourselves, and the times will be better: You are the times. Technology must multiply human agency. DMs closed.
New York, USA
Joined October 2018
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Analog is about the nature of the interpretation function, not about continuity versus discreteness.
In reading about the history of science I’ve been struck by how often scientific questions suddenly transmute into theological questions when you’re at the bare bottom ground. Strange ineffable mystery.
Secret no go results maybe the most valuable thing. Everyone else iterates breathlessly on a terrain you know is a dead end while you venture out elsewhere.
akhil retweeted
Lendo um ensaio de David Bentley Hart sobre o “Heidegger tardio”. A primeira parte é um (bom) resumo de manual. No finalzinho, porém, DBH se permite um certo lirismo, sem forçar a mão no registro barroco de algum de seus texto. Achei bonita a imagem neste trechinho:
This is nice but don’t bet against AI. What you’re imagining as the real thing ( LLMs ) is a prototype technology that will get wiped away. Don’t over index on the prototype. The archetype will kill you.
AI predictions for next 6-9 months
-> Anthropic/ OAI fail to ban OSS in the US
-> Anthropic/ OAI continue to innovate product but stall on fundamental tech breakthroughs
-> SOTA Gemini 4 launches at 10x lower cost
-> Elon open sources Grok
-> Anthropic/ OAI ARR growth stalls as enterprises move from tokenmaxxing to rational token consumption/ OSS
-> slow realization in public markets that AI may not replace human labor in next 1-3 years/ has not had a fundamental tech breakthrough in over a year/ lacks ROI/ AI hyper and lab spend not durable
-> moonboy VCs/ hedge funds/ softbank continue to fund Anthropic/ OAI equity raises in private markets as public markets for them are now fully closed
-> CXMT, YMTC announce capacity expansions significantly above market expectations
-> hypers deliver good q326 results on first look but fail to show meaningful AI ROI, guide to "significant capex expansion in fy27"
-> broad realization in public markets the AI dream we got sold on is not anywhere close to realization
-> 10yr hits >5%
-> hyper bonds reprice >10%, CDS hit 3x current levels, and AI credit market dries up as market realizes GPU ABF was not a good idea
-> hyper equities reprice 30-50% lower
-> ORCL falls below $30 as rumors of bailout make the round
-> market realizes memory is cyclical and LTAs won't hold
-> 50% of korean traders get wiped within a week
-> hypers cut fy27 capex
-> semis reprice >80% lower
-> fed cuts >150bps to avoid recession
