Chief Economist for Asia and the Pacific at UNDP

Bangkok, Thailand
Joined January 2011
The IMF and the World Bank have scheduled 174 events that start soon here in Bangkok. Only one mentions poverty in its title. movingfrontiers.substack.com…
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Convergence? Yes, but 90% of the global population still lives under just 40% of the frontier’s per capita income, as they have for the last two centuries.
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Talent is widely distributed but opportunity is not. Much talent is never discovered, never nurtured, or never put to use. Read "Einsteins in the Cotton Fields" at Moving Frontiers: movingfrontiers.substack.com…
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Philip Schellekens retweeted
Is the problem (too) advanced artificial intelligence or distorted intelligence? Repeated security debacles from OpenAI and Anthropic are now followed by AI safety researchers leaving these companies. They claim they now (finally!) realize that the breathless race these companies are engaged in is irresponsible. Broadly construed, the problem can be interpreted as one of lack of alignment – models are doing things that are not in line with human objectives. But the alignment discussion often veers toward the presumption that the problem is AI models becoming too advanced, too fast. A different interpretation is that models aren’t too advanced. Nor is there any compelling evidence that they are marching toward a superintelligence humans can’t keep up. The problem rather may be that the way that frontier labs are training these models is leading to distorted intelligence. The problem isn’t the capabilities (though those are clearly real), but more that the capabilities are in service of some imperfect quantitative metrics – user approval, user engagement, simple task completion metrics, various benchmark scores – over which reinforcement learning optimizes relentlessly. That this process then leads to distorted behaviors in the form of gaming the evaluation of simple completion metrics, cheating, overconfidence in wrong answers, sycophancy shouldn’t perhaps be surprising. An analogy may help. It isn’t that we have in our hands a super car that has its own mind and wants to take control of driving because it is superior to the driver. It is more that we have a car where the steering and the brake system don’t work. It has many of the capabilities of very good cars, and its engine, acceleration and graphic interface may be very impressive. But if you cannot steer it properly and if you cannot hit the brakes when necessary, what could does a car do? Perhaps we shouldn’t drive it until it’s fixed.
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Philip Schellekens retweeted
At higher levels of income, the progress is more noticeable, as @fibke emphasizes here, showing that global population living in high-income countries will grow by 2 billion over the next couple of decades. xitter.cf/fibke/status/208748997…
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