Cleveland Fed forecasts cpi to reaccelerate near 4.1% in August. If that's anywhere near accurate the debate won't be whether the fed hikes another 25bp, it'll be whether they go 50bp in both Sep and Nov. $spy
1
144
$spy gap up bounce after 4 red days is classic. Looks on track for 430 soon
128
The melt up in stocks and relentless desire to pay whatever price no matter what is adding fuel to the fire that is just ahead, but the market can't yet see. $spy
1
108
Revenge rally is played out. Bears await "the event" that will catalyze the final leg lower in this bear market to take out the October lows and put in the true low for this bear market. Looks imminent. $spy
77
$spy at euphoric pe with recession imminent. This won't end well.
The entire yield curve is below the fed funds rate. That ain't bullish and means the fed will soon be cutting rates due to recession and financial market crises. $spy
1
137
Mkt trying to shame fed into 25bp - hard data calls for 50 and 6% terminal. The medicine doesn't always taste good. $spy
86
$spy 390 is pricing in soft landing with inflation returning to 2% by mid yr and fed cutting rates in 2nd half. It's fantasy land. Capitulation leg just getting started, long way down
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49
March 50bp is the price for the 2023 melt up to start the year. Means bigger recession and also pulled forward. $spy
44
18x inflated 2023 earnings while yields are breaking out is not the place to buy $spy
1
69
Bostic already shot his shot. Next time he opens his mouth whispering bullish sweet nothings it's old news. So the 15 min sugar high is over. $spy
2
117
When fed raises above 5%, shizzle starts to break. Recession price to pay for new bull / slay inflation. 2's/10's 90bp inverted. Mkt hoped for fed pause before recession to melt up equities - inflation rebound spooked that trade. $spy under 200dma to test new "technical bulls"
2
81
