Daily expected move: a stock's predicted price range for one day, up or down, based on options' implied volatility. 68% probability. Not financial advice.
Joined August 2025
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Daily Expected Move retweeted
The AI supercycle is in year 3 of 15. You didn't miss it.
You'd make millions by knowing whats coming and buying dips until 2030+
Pay attention, we just finished Phase 1 2023-2025
chips · memory · connectivity
$NVDA → Designs the GPUs every AI model trains and runs on.
$MU → Makes high-bandwidth memory inside every AI server.
$COHR → Moves data at light speed between GPUs optically.
$MRVL → Custom silicon connecting every chip in a hyperscaler's cluster.
$AVGO → Builds Google's, Meta's, and Apple's custom AI chips quietly.
$AMD → Only credible GPU rival to NVDA for AI training.
PHASE 2 — The grid gets built (2026–2027)
power · cooling · networking
$IREN → AI-native data centers built to scale compute and power.
$WULF → Energy-efficient infrastructure hosting the world's most power-hungry AI workloads.
$VRT → Cooling and power systems keeping AI data centers running.
$ETN → Electrical gear powering every hyperscale AI facility being built.
$CEG → Nuclear energy feeding AI's insatiable around-the-clock power demands.
$ANET → High-speed switches moving massive AI workloads across GPU networks.
$GEV → Gas turbines physically delivering power to data centers.
$SMCI → Liquid-cooled GPU server racks — pick-and-shovel for AI density.
PHASE 3 — The massive bottleneck (2027–2029)
materials · space · autonomy
$MP → Mines rare earth materials used in AI hardware and defense.
$USAR → Domestic minerals securing U.S. AI manufacturing independence.
$ASTS → Satellites delivering AI connectivity to every corner of Earth.
$RKLB → Low-cost rockets launching satellites powering AI communication networks.
$KTOS → AI-driven autonomous weapons systems entering mass military deployment now.
$TSLA → Leads real-world AI through robotics, autonomy, and manufacturing.
$SYM → AI-powered warehouse robots automating global logistics at scale.
$ALAB → Chip packaging bottleneck — critical past 100K GPU nodes.
$PLTR → Software turning AI compute into defense and enterprise decisions.
PHASE 4 — Full automation (2030+)
platforms · agents · quantum
$MSFT → Deploys AI agents across every enterprise software product it sells.
$GOOGL → Controls AI search, cloud, and consumer distribution globally.
$META → AI assistants across 3 billion users in social and commerce.
$CRM → AI agents inside enterprise sales — 150K customer moat.
$NOW → AI workflow OS for Fortune 500 enterprises.
Quantum
$IONQ $RGTI $QUBT — next-gen compute unlocking exponential AI breakthroughs.
♻️ RESHARE this post and make 1 comment, I'll share when to add these stocks in June.
Daily Expected Move retweeted
The biggest game changer for me was realizing the most powerful edge is sitting on hands. Its the unplanned, impulse trades that don't correlate to any setup that generate losses. I plan exactly where I am going to enter & have 1 setup that I look for there. Otherwise, no trading
Daily Expected Move retweeted
16 stocks I'm adding in March/April 2026 (bottom will be in as soon as WAR ends). All of them are ON SALE:
NVDA $212 → $180 (-15%)
Buy: $155–165 Prior breakout and big demand zone.
TSLA $499 → $391 (-22%)
Buy: $340–$350 Major institutional demand zone.
AMZN $259 → $208 (-20%)
Buy: $195–200 Previous consolidation base.
META $789 → $614 (-22%)
Buy: $530–550 Long-term trendline support.
GOOG $334 → $301 (-10%)
Buy: $280–290 Multi-month support + 200DMA.
AAPL $289 → $250 (-13%)
Buy: $225–235 Strong institutional accumulation area.
LLY $1112 → $985 (-11%)
Buy: $940–950 Healthcare trend support.
ASTS $130 → $86 (-34%)
Buy: $70–80 Last accumulation zone pre-rally.
IONQ $85 → $33 (-61%)
Buy: $25–30 Early cycle support.
SOFI $32 → $18 (-45%)
Buy: $15–17 Strong psychological demand.
AMD $267 → $193 (-28%)
Buy: $170–180 Semiconductor cycle support.
INTC $62 → $46 (-26%)
Buy: $35–38 Long-term value floor.
NKE $179 → $54 (-70%)
Buy: $50–55 Major historical support.
PLTR $207 → $151 (-27%)
Buy: $120–130 Prior breakout base.
AVGO $415 → $322 (-22%)
Buy: $320–340 Previous consolidation range.
CRWD $558 → $442 (-21%)
Buy: $350–360 Cybersecurity sector support.
♻️REPOST and share 1 comment if you're interested in knowing which ones I'll add this week!
Daily Expected Move retweeted
Big payout from the 6461 long (just hit ~6505 final) & no magic to it in #ES_F. Same thing everyday: I don't short, I plan my zones in newsletter. I trade Failed Breakdowns longs when we sweep/trap a low at those zones. We get 1-3 per day. Lock in gains lvl to lvl, leave runner.
We continue to squeeze from this mornings 6461 textbook Failed Breakdown in #ES_F and 6461 has been an absolute ATM machine, now +40 points. Today's target set given here and in 4pm ystd newsletter were 6480, 6488, 6498, 6505. Almost at 6505
Sit on runner. 6511, then ATHs above
August 22, 2025 expected moves
$SPY $SPX $QQQ $NQ $ES $IWM $CLQ $RTY $GCV
#dailyexpectedmove #daytrading #dailyexpectedmoves #daytrader #EM #daytrade #Futures #expectedmove
What is the difference between the daily expected move and ATR?
The daily expected move is a statistical estimate of how much a stock or asset is likely to move in a single trading day, often calculated using implied volatility from options pricing. It reflects the market’s expectation of price fluctuation, typically expressed as a percentage or dollar amount, based on a one-standard-deviation move.
ATR (Average True Range) measures an asset’s average price volatility over a specific period (e.g., 14 days), factoring in the daily price range, including gaps. It’s a historical indicator, calculated as the average of true ranges (high-low, adjusted for gaps).
Key difference: Expected move predicts future volatility for a single day using options data, while ATR reflects past average volatility over multiple days.
Expected move is forward-looking and market-driven; ATR is backward-looking and based on actual price action.
#daytrading
Importance if the Daily Expected Move
Knowing the daily expected move of a stock is critical in day trading because it provides a realistic estimate of the stock’s potential price range within a trading session. This knowledge is important because it:
• Guides Realistic Expectations: Helps traders set achievable profit targets and avoid chasing unrealistic price swings (e.g., expecting a $10 move when the expected move or ATR (average true range) suggests $2).
• Enhances Risk Management: Enables precise stop-loss and position sizing, limiting losses to 1-2% of capital per trade.
• Informs Trade Timing: Aligns entries and exits with key levels like support/resistance, improving trade accuracy.
• Adapts to Volatility: Reflects market conditions, helping traders adjust strategies during high-impact events like earnings or economic reports.
This foresight fosters discipline, prevents overtrading, and protects capital, ensuring consistent decision-making and long-term trading success.
$SPY $SPX $QQQ $NQ $ES $IWM $CLQ $RTY $GCV
#dailyexpectedmove #daytrading #dailyexpectedmoves #daytrader #EM #daytrade #Futures #expectedmove
Example of Daily Expected Move Calculation for SPY …
SPY price: $500. IV: 15%.
Daily IV = 0.15 ÷ √252 ≈ 0.00945.
Expected move = $500 × 0.00945 ≈ $4.73.
SPY may move ±$4.73 (range: $495.27–$504.73) with ~68% probability.
Use real-time IV from options chain.
$SPY $SPX $QQQ $NQ $ES $IWM $CLQ $RTY $GCV
#dailyexpectedmove #daytrading #dailyexpectedmoves #daytrader #EM #daytrade #Futures #expectedmove
How do you calculate a daily expected move in the stock market?
To calculate a stock’s daily expected move, use the formula: Expected Move = Stock Price × Implied Volatility × √(Time / 365). First, find the stock’s current price. Then, obtain the implied volatility (IV) from options data, typically the at-the-money IV for the nearest expiration. Time is the number of days (usually 1 for daily). Multiply the stock price by the IV (as a decimal) and the square root of 1/365. The result is the expected price range (±) for one standard deviation, meaning the stock is expected to stay within this range about 68% of the time.
$SPY $SPX $QQQ $NQ $ES $IWM $CLQ $RTY $GCV
#dailyexpectedmove #daytrading #dailyexpectedmoves #daytrader #EM #daytrade #Futures #expectedmove
