Founder of Eversight Wealth, a flat fee investment firm.
Joined January 2016
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New Post: Are TIPS Broken?
- Analyzing massive performance differences between TIPS funds
- Why passive bond investors need more inflation protection
- Which ETFs best hedge unexpected inflation
- Future outlook for TIPS in 2022
eversightwealth.com/are-tips…
Back on Twitter with a new post!
This article covers:
• Searching for perfect portfolios
• How dopamine sabotages decisions
• The investment marketing mirage
eversightwealth.com/why-perf…
"It raises the question why investors have allocated such large amounts of capital to a complex product that does not provide any unique characteristics."
describes most alternative funds tbh
factorresearch.com/research-…
Beware of Financial Alchemy
- The folly of chasing yield
- Why the stock market isn't a puzzle
- How pattern recognition can backfire
movement.capital/beware-of-f…
"October 1993 brought the now-infamous 500 billion dinar note. I remember my father reporting this note with 11 zeros was worth roughly one cabbage."
interesting post about one of the less discussed hyperinflation episodes, yugoslavia in the 1990s
ruffer.co.uk/Thinking/Articl…
belief in consistent mean reversion can be an expensive investing mistake
until 1958 stocks yielded more than bonds. then bonds started yielding more and some people said it couldn't last. they were wrong for 50 years
excellent post by @AlbertBridgeCap
albertbridgecapital.com/post…
Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?
- Why 2020's great performance can't continue
- What's changed since the strategy was created
- Three potential improvements
movement.capital/is-the-perm…
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"Whether or not bond rates rise in the future, today’s government bonds cannot provide the depression hedge they did in previous cycles."
govt bonds of countries with low 10yr yields provided significantly less protection in march
gmo.com/americas/research-li…
passive indexes can significantly change
china went from essentially zero representation in emerging market indexes to a 40% weight in two decades
indexologyblog.com/2020/09/1…
for years international stocks have seemed attractive at low valuations. but why have they remained cheap?
@Jesse_Livermore says one potential reason is that foreign investors are less interested in stocks. average allocation is much lower than in the US
osam.com/Commentary/upside-d…
stock market hedges generally have negative expected returns. but over the last 30 years treasury bonds provided tail insurance AND high returns
current yields make the outlook for treasuries less bright. interesting GMO note on bond alternatives
gmo.com/americas/research-li…
How to Protect a Portfolio Without Market Timing
- The allure of market timing models
- An alternative hedging approach
- Who this strategy works for
movement.capital/how-to-prot…
the hunt for yield is relentless
investors are now paying a 5% premium to net asset value for NXP, a muni closed-end fund
strange things happening in US stock futures
in february traders were net long a record $138 billion. now after a +50% rip since march they're... net short?
2008 futures positioning didn't even get this bearish
low yielding bonds didn't help a japanese 60/40 investor reduce risk in 2008 or 2020
the benefits of owning bonds (safety, rebalancing, deflation hedge) are equally true for cash when bond yields are this low
factorresearch.com/research-…
want to hedge inflation?
treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) are one way to do it. quick thread on how they work and when they outperform
the principal of a TIPS bond is adjusted with inflation. these tables show the cash flow differences vs. regular treasuries
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"Simulated returns are the equivalent of wine-tasting in Sonoma Valley on a sunny day, while the returns post-launch are like the hangover after a college party with cheap booze."
good @FactorResearch post on the recent lack of a variance risk premium
factorresearch.com/research-…
New Post: What Backtests Hide
- How strategy popularity impacts performance
- Why complex strategies will always raise money
- The biggest career risk for professional investors
movement.capital/what-backte…
