Now: @theatlantic @emcollective @overheardpbs @ststephenschool @uvademocracy @austinfilm @lbjfoundation Past: @texastribune @texasmonthly Always: @wilco 🎾
Austin, Texas
Joined January 2009
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i keep getting asked what's gonna happen in the #txsen race. beats me. kinda amazing that we're three weeks out and we don't what the last scene in the movie is. first time in 32 years. i do know the most important unanswered q: what will @johncornyn's voters do? #txlege #tx2026
910k voted for @johncornyn on primary day. 502k in runoff. How many vote for @KenPaxtonTX? Some. How many vote for @jamestalarico? Some. How many don't vote? A lot. @tedcruz margin over @BetoORourke in 2018 was 216k That math as it shakes out = ball game #txlege #tx2026
for context —
this very same poll in october 2022: @GregAbbott_TX 54, @BetoORourke 43
final result november 2022: @GregAbbott_TX 54.8, @BetoORourke 43.8
#txlege #tx2026
New @TxPolProject poll finds statewide GOP incumbents in jeopardy, w/ lots of statistical ties
#TXSEN
Talarico 50
Paxton 47
Governor
Hinojosa 49
Abbott 48
Lite guv
Goodwin (D) 49
Patrick (R) 46
Attorney general
Johnson (D) 48
Middleton (R) 47
texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blo… #txlege
also: comptroller race is R+1, railroad commission race is D+1 @DonHuffines @SarahEckhardtTX @bofrench @Jon_RosenthalTX #txlege #tx2026
New @TxPolProject poll finds statewide GOP incumbents in jeopardy, w/ lots of statistical ties
#TXSEN
Talarico 50
Paxton 47
Governor
Hinojosa 49
Abbott 48
Lite guv
Goodwin (D) 49
Patrick (R) 46
Attorney general
Johnson (D) 48
Middleton (R) 47
texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blo… #txlege
rural vote: @jamestalarico 30%, @GinaHinojosaTX 28%. would be highest rural % by a statewide democratic candidate in years texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blo… #txlege #tx2026
New @TxPolProject poll finds statewide GOP incumbents in jeopardy, w/ lots of statistical ties
#TXSEN
Talarico 50
Paxton 47
Governor
Hinojosa 49
Abbott 48
Lite guv
Goodwin (D) 49
Patrick (R) 46
Attorney general
Johnson (D) 48
Middleton (R) 47
texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blo… #txlege
Evan Smith retweeted
Republicans pulling money out of TX-28 and pushing it over to TX-34, per Ad Impact reports on CLF and No Going Back PAC
noting again that no democrat running statewide in texas has cracked 25% in rural texas in six straight elections. if @jamestalarico is really at 37, that would be something #txlege #tx2026
Evan Smith retweeted
New University of Houston poll of #TXSEN in Harris County:
James Talarico (D) 58 (+22)
Ken Paxton (R) 36
Ted Brown (L) 2
Unsure 4
(Oct. 3-8; 2,750 LVs; +/-1.87%)
The county, which is Texas’ most populous and home to Houston, was Harris +6 in 2024, O’Rourke +10 in 2022, Biden +13 in 2020 and O'Rourke +17 in 2018.
📺 @PatiJinich and I talked about her new cookbook, 15 seasons of Pati’s Mexican Table, the people and places of the border, how everyone’s a foodie these days, poison beans and pink pine nuts and more for a new episode of @overheardpbs pbs.org/video/pati-jinich-l1… #txlege @austinpbs
one of my favorite things in an election cycle in which texas elections are competitive: @texastribune alums all over TV. these two are the best of the best @PatrickSvitek @abbyliv817 (h/t another great alum @James_Barragan) #txlege #tx2026
In 2018 @GregAbbott_TX won by 13 points and every other statewide Republican candidate ran 3-10 points behind him. Let’s say this polling average is right or even underestimates his lead by a couple of points. Gotta think other Rs would be seriously at risk #txlege #tx2026
📺 @jmpalmieri and I talked about her new political doc series, Long Play + why the South is hot, why the president can't ban news orgs from the White House, surprises that may be in store on Election Day and more on a new episode of @overheardpbs pbs.org/video/jennifer-palmi… #txlege @austinpbs
📺 @ProfMMurray and I talk about the resilience of the U.S. Constitution in a fraught moment for our democracy, the myth of settled law, why we need Supreme Court reform and more on a new episode of @overheardpbs pbs.org/video/melissa-murray… #txlege @austinpbs
